Cap Rate and Stocks

Cap Rate and Stocks

Brady MullenPro Member
Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 61 posts · 100 votes

Consider this for residential real estate investing:

Imagine there was a stock you could buy that pays a 5% dividend or so. (cap rate)

Imagine this business provided a product/service that literally everyone needs.

Imagine the product/service this business provides is on back order for a decade. (low inventory)

Imagine this stock was historically significantly more stable than the S&P 500 Index.

However, this stock typically appreciates meaningfully less than the S&P 500, but because of it's reliably predictable appreciation, the banks would lend you up to 80% of the value of this stock at a fixed interest rate slightly higher than inflation to purchase it.

Imagine if rates dropped, you could replace that loan with a new, lower interest one?

Imagine there were all sorts of tax benefits for doing this.

Due to the ability to leverage this asset, collect income, enjoy preferential tax treatment, and expect appreciation over time, historical returns on money invested are regularly and meaningfully higher than the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested.

How much would you buy?

Wouldn't it be a great if you could purchase this stock so that the 5% dividend covered the cost of the payment to the bank? What?!

What if it didn't quite? What would you do?

Would you borrow less? Like 70% instead of 80%, just so the dividend would cover your payment to the bank? Maybe. That's a good strategy.

Or would you borrow 80% still, and pay the difference each month for a few years? Maybe, if you were very confident in your ability to pay this. After all, you figure you're still getting the ownership of this stock for a fraction of the overall value.

Furthermore, you recognize that the 5% dividend on an increasing value is an increasing dollar figure, so eventually, the dividend will entirely cover the payment to the bank. And, eventually, you will receive the entire dividend with no payment to the bank because the loan is paid in full.

Or would you walk away and complain that you used to be able to purchase this stock with 20% down (an arbitrary number, by the way, based on PMI, not the bank's concern for your entitlement to positive cash flow) and the dividend would cover your entire payment and then some in the first year? Maybe… at least you're in the comfortable majority. It's not a good deal anymore, right? Better to wait, expect, and feel entitled to bank rates that are unrealistically low and not likely to return in our lifetimes.

What would you do?

This is not a perfect analogy. Here are a few caveats…

Real estate is not fungible, so it matters which real estate you buy. You can't be careless about it - you have to do your due diligence.

Real estate is also not passive. Anyone who says it is doesn't own any. You're a business owner when you buy rental properties. However, in exchange for more responsibility, you also get a lot more control over your investment than in a traditional stock, where your only control is to own it or not.

Real estate is a concentrated asset. With a small amount of money, you can have a diversified portfolio of stocks. Diversifying with real estate takes a lot more capital.

Lastly, I am not recommending negative cash flow. But it is true that if values rise, the more intelligent debt you use, the better overall return you'll achieve, even if your cash flow is negative. And if a few hundred (or thousand) dollars a month is no big deal to you, and your objective is aggressive returns, then negative cash flow in favor of higher leverage can make sense. That said, negative cash flow should be considered very cautiously. Liquidity is a metric every business and investor should regard as sacred.

I'd love feedback and insight on this idea! I am a retired financial planner (more like disenfranchised), and I deliver a lot of CE courses to RE agents and their clients in Colorado, and I'm always thinking of helpful ways to explain real estate and financial concepts. I woke up at 4:30 this morning with this idea in my head, and I had to write it down and get the BP community feedback - I love this platform! Thank you to anyone and everyone who shares ideas!

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  • Contractor · Nashville, TN · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    Now imagine that that stock is a bit of a pain to purchase and operate and that most people don't have the bandwidth to add it to their schedule.

    I've come to this realization only recently. I've been blessed to get dozens of rental units and they have been very impactful financially, but I realize that most people can't hardly manage this while working their full-time job. Plus there are so many mistakes you can make along the way, whereas stock is just a couple clicks.

    I would recommend real estate to pretty much everyone, but I know there are a lot of people who don't have time or want to deal with the headache of it. Even if they hire a property manager it's still very hard to find deals and you have to go get the loan , keep an eye on it to make sure the property manager is doing their job, Etc

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    3y

    I like the theory, but am with @Allan Smith as to it's difficulty, effort and indigestion.  

    For the pain, we get control and the opportunity to purchase below market value and or creatively.

    But there are tons of moving parts and people to deal with.  An entire huge industry is there specializing in it's acquisition and exit and they are not cheap.  

    A purchase contract averages 26 pages.  My exit paperwork from an asset last year was over 50 pgs. Then there's the taxes to file, especially after sale / exit/ relinquishment.  Most need a tax professional for that as well. 

    Stocks, funds, reits are a button and a clean 1099/98. RE is very complex. 

  • Brady MullenPro Member
    OP
    Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 61 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Allan Smith:

    Now imagine that that stock is a bit of a pain to purchase and operate and that most people don't have the bandwidth to add it to their schedule.

    I've come to this realization only recently. I've been blessed to get dozens of rental units and they have been very impactful financially, but I realize that most people can't hardly manage this while working their full-time job. Plus there are so many mistakes you can make along the way, whereas stock is just a couple clicks.

    I would recommend real estate to pretty much everyone, but I know there are a lot of people who don't have time or want to deal with the headache of it. Even if they hire a property manager it's still very hard to find deals and you have to go get the loan , keep an eye on it to make sure the property manager is doing their job, Etc

    I completely agree. Real estate investing is not passive and isn’t for everyone.Thanks for reading and responding!
  • Brady MullenPro Member
    OP
    Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 61 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Steve Vaughan:

    I like the theory, but am with @Allan Smith as to it's difficulty, effort and indigestion.  

    For the pain, we get control and the opportunity to purchase below market value and or creatively.

    But there are tons of moving parts and people to deal with.  An entire huge industry is there specializing in it's acquisition and exit and they are not cheap.  

    A purchase contract averages 26 pages.  My exit paperwork from an asset last year was over 50 pgs. Then there's the taxes to file, especially after sale / exit/ relinquishment.  Most need a tax professional for that as well. 

    Stocks, funds, reits are a button and a clean 1099/98. RE is very complex. 

    I’m on the same page with you. It’s not nearly as straightforward as other assets, and I tried to stress that, as well.

    Thanks for reading and commenting!
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