Spent the weekend pulling the sold record around Southwest Baltimore (21223).

**The block has two prices.** Shells on Gilmor, Catherine, and Wilkens keep trading at land value. 528 S Catherine St sold for $22,500 in March 2026. 530 N Carrollton Ave went for $50,000 in April 2025. 3134 Wilkens Ave changed hands at $60,000 in August 2020 (and $21,000 in 2019). Different years, same story: gut-to-the-studs pricing.

**Turnkey product gets real money — if the reno is real.** 907 McHenry St in Pigtown sold for $262,500 in June 2025 with $100K+ in documented upgrades and was producing income day one. 108 N Stricker St, a vacant 3-unit end-of-group, sold for $165,000 in March 2026 — 17.5% below its $199,990 list after sitting. The reno money exists, but the list price has to be earned.

**The cautionary tale is 528 S Catherine itself.** Bought for $22,500 in March 2026, listed $55,000 in April, relisted $55,000 in May — no sale either time. Cuts to $49K in June, $45K in July, $44K in August. Sitting 107 days through three price cuts. A $22.5K-in-to-$44K-ask spread looks fine on paper; the market says the reno behind it doesn't pencil.

**My read: the spread is real, the timeline is the trap.** Buyers will pay for finished product here, and they'll steal shells. What's dying is the middle — thin renos priced like finished product, sitting through price cuts while carrying costs eat the flipper.

**Comps.** Quick look at the numbers around it:

As-is shells: 528 S Catherine St — $22,500, sold Mar 2026; 530 N Carrollton Ave — $50,000, sold Apr 2025; 3134 Wilkens Ave — $60,000, sold Aug 2020 (was $21,000 in Oct 2019). That puts as-is value roughly $22K–$60K, most likely around $30–35K for a true gut shell in this pocket.

Renovated: 907 McHenry St — $262,500, sold Jun 2025 (turnkey, $100K+ upgrades, income-producing); 108 N Stricker St — $165,000, sold Mar 2026 (vacant 3-unit, 17.5% below list); 410 S Gilmor St (2bd/1ba) — $198,000 per Zillow, no closing date shown. Honest caveat: McHenry is the Pigtown ceiling (two income units, $100K+ upgrades), and Stricker is a small multi, not a single-family comp. So a renovated range of $165K–$262K, mid-market closer to $165–200K.

For the out-of-state investors watching 21223: are you underwriting at shell prices and hoping for Pigtown reno money — or pricing the reno honestly and buying the shell cheap enough to survive it?

— Dawon | Baltimore, MD