Asking Price Includes Rent Increase ROI? Ultra Specific Questions

Asking Price Includes Rent Increase ROI? Ultra Specific Questions

Glen Cove, NY · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 18 votes

I am new to analyzing properties and keep noticing something that I am not sure how to understand. Here is an example below. No intention on buying it, its just for example purpose for analysis training.

18 Unit Condo

St Petersburg, FL

Asking: $2,400,000

T12 Rental Income: $215,040 (Yes I know the 1% rule)

T12 Expenses: $135,942 (Did not adjust for more tax liability after purchase)

Net Income: $79,098

Now if I were to put 600K down and service 1.8MM in Debt at 4% then

Mortgage Service: $103,121.70 Yearly

Net Income -$24,023 so obviously Negative COCROI

If instead it was purchased with Cash and netted the $79,098 then my COCROI would still only be 3.3% with a LOT of capital tied up.

So now on to the questions. 

1) The Proforma claims "Rent Potential" of an extra 100K when you raise rents to market levels (which would then be a 7.5% return). Tenants are currently MTM. Are they asking a sales price based on what you will supposedly earn later? I see a LOT of places seeming to do this. Seems silly to me to price in a rent raise that has not happened. They are just asking you to take some crazy risk to get ANY return?

2) Are deals like these done on debt often or are they usually looking for the guy that only wants 5-6% after paying Cash? Like a big Fund? (Which this deal would still be bad for and also small). IE, would your advice be that if you cant do it on Leverage then its not a good enough deal?

3) Do you try to make the deal work for you based on the T12 and ignore the supposed future increases that are being displayed in the Proforma? For example, this deal would work for me at 8% at $1,200,000 as it stands which is only 50% what they are asking. Would you offer what works for you on every place you look at and see which ones bite? Maybe with a letter of Intent?

4) What tools do you use to research the marketplace for rentals? You can look at rentals on Zillow and Craigslist but how do you know what people are asking vs actually getting? Post fake ads and count the replies? Obviously I don't want to do it that way and am just curious on your strategy for analyzing the rental market as a whole in the immediate area so you can build a proforma you trust.

I know the deal is terrible (unless there is some huge appreciation in St. Petersburg FL and future value is priced in now which I did not look into). What I am trying to find is what I am missing for analysis purposes for what is market competitive. For example, if most buyers of the more expensive multi family homes such as in the 5MM-10MM range are paying cash then I am already at a disadvantage buying with debt and will have to look much harder for deals. Are deals that you can buy on Debt with an 8% return reasonable to expect after looking at a few hundred or are they more like unicorn deals and you have to get super creative or an in with a great broker.

Thanks to everybody in advance for responding.

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  • Glen Cove, NY · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 18 votes
    6y

    I realize I posted this in the wrong section. I am hoping somebody can move it there.

  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    6y

    @James Ritter MF is crazy hot these days. My take is that the property is way overpriced for the revenue it generates and it is as simple as that. I don't know where or how to move it. Sorry.

  • Glen Cove, NY · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 18 votes
    6y

    @Bjorn Ahlblad

    Yea I knew right away it wasn't for me. I was just wondering if I am missing something big that just does not allow me to be competitive. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Broken Arrow, OK · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    1. People advertise MF & sometimes even SFR that way all the time, but those deals rarely sale at asking price unless it's to an inexperienced investor.
    2. These can be beneficial if you improve the properties, increase rents, and add in strong appreciation market.  Set on them for 5-10 years, then make all your real money on the exit. 
    3. Yes, my offer on this would be $1,250,000 and I may consider going to $1.5M after fully evaluating.  But there are people, funds, syndications out there who would pay closer to $2M based on the longterm projections. Again, they’ll take minimal cashflow if any, in effort to make a huge return on the exit.

    4. A good local broker can get you a lot of needed information. 

  • Glen Cove, NY · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 18 votes
    6y

    @Jeff Filali

    Thank you. That is what I thought. Considering im brand new to this its hard. I am in the "I dont know what I dont know" stage of this process. Your reply is very helpful.

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