Do any of you purchase rentals purely for future appreciation?

Do any of you purchase rentals purely for future appreciation?

Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2017 · 7 posts · 2 votes

My brother and I are both interested in purchasing rental property, and we have what appear to be very different ideas about what a good rental property purchase is. I'm curious what more seasoned investors think of these two methods for assessing rental property to make sure I'm not missing anything.

We are both looking in the same city with a lot of future growth potential. The city is currently investing mega dollars into the infrastructure to make it more desirable, and the market is very hot right now (consistent with most bigger cities currently). I think it would take an act of god for houses to not continue appreciating very solidly for the foreseeable future.

My brother only looks at houses that he would feel comfortable living in. We also admittedly come from a silver spoon background, which makes him ignore what I consider to be good rentals. The type of house he wants to buy is like this:

~200k

Located in a good neighborhood, desirable part of the city.

3 BR / 2 bath, solidly average middle-class home (no fancy counter tops, trim, etc.)

Rents of ~1,400/mo + util

I, on the other hand, tend to prefer something more like this:

~100-130k

Located in more blue-collar neighborhoods. Not crime-ridden or low class by any means, but certainly not a middle-class neighborhood.

3 BR / 2 bath. Very average homes, functional but not attractive kitchens, etc.

Rents of ~1,000-1,200/mo + util

My thought process is that these blue-collar neighborhoods, which also happen to be close to the downtown area where a lot of development is happening, have a lot of room to grow in the future. More importantly, they are priced close enough to the 1% mark that I can hold them for years and the monthly cash flow will be enough to pay for the house + a small positive income stream on top.

My brother, on the other hand, sees such tremendous growth out of the city that he thinks the houses have to be purchased in desirable neighborhoods to see massive growth out of them. My issue with his line of thinking is that if you pay 200k for a house that rents for ~$1,400/mo, you are holding a house for years on end that may just barely cover expenses, or even lose a small amount each month, in hopes for massive appreciation at the end.

Am I crazy for thinking that is a risky proposition when you can buy other homes that will earn you money each month while you wait for that hopeful massive house appreciation in 10 years?

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Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
9y

I invest primarily for appreciation, but with a few important caveats (to come later after the why) ... Why:

If you invest for cash flow and you are right, you get cash flow. If you invest for appreciation and you are right, you get BOTH appreciation AND cash flow because price increases and rent increases go hand in hand while most expenses do not scale up as such.

... and now, the caveats:

  1. There are 2 "flavors" of appreciation: forced appreciation (which you control) and market appreciation (which you don't control but can screen for neighborhoods with high appreciation potential. I always want both ... the forced appreciation equity bump locks in some profits in the short term that you normally don't get from cash flow in these markets, and then the market appreciation does the rest of the heavy lifting for me over the long term (and if I'm wrong I still have my forced appreciation).
  2. I live locally in a market that is perfectly geared for this strategy. I'm very much a product of my investing environment, but this strategy would not necessarily be optimal for all or even most other markets. In fact, I would even go so far as to say the advantages you'd have as an active local investor would likely trump any perceived or actual benefit you'd get in investing in one type of market or the other remotely ... so I'd say work with what your lcoal RE market has to offer, and that could actually be a fairly wide range with all the local sub-markets. 
  3. Appreciation is impossible to accurately predict in the short run (1-8 years), but I believe that it is not necessarily all that difficult to predict in the long run (decades) if you have a market with a long established track record for it. In this case, you can estimate the long term historical appreciation rate by computing CAGR over multiple decades (spanning multiple RE cycles) and then understanding the driving fundamentals of supply and demand and if they are persistent or not. 
  4. To some extent all buy and hold investors are relying on a certain level of appreciation, whether they realize it or admit it or not, and if they don't get it their investment could be in trouble long term. For example, if you assume 0% appreciation, because betting on appreciation is speculative, then you still have made an assumption about future appreciation that you could be wrong on and may either be conservative or extremely aggressive depending on the market you are in ... there are countless examples of mid-west rust belt markets where the appreciation has been less than zero after factoring in inflation, whereas an appreciation assumption of 4% in a market like SoCal has historically been quite conservative over just about any long term (decades) holding period. 

Of course, many would and have at length argued over any and all the points above, which is cool because that is how we all learn and grow, but these are my thoughts based on my experiences investing in RE for long awhile now (15 years).

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  • Investor · Bayside, NY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    I invested in real estate for over 35 years. I retired now, cashed out on a number, and left a few mortgage free ones with good cash flow.

    I'm in the New York City area, and it's hard to cash flow initially. But appreciation is fantastic, so I put enough down for little or no initial cash flow.  But they all cash flow very well in about 5 - 10  years time. I sold my rentals for over 4 times what I paid for them after 20 years, and some over 5 times. Taking into consideration I put 10% to 20% down initially, mortgages paid down considerably, I made back 20 to 30 times the initial investment.

    So, in answer to your question, I make my killing on appreciation, and the monthly cash low is just icing on the cake. 

    Blue collar areas are the best. I prefer blue collar tenants as they don't mind to mow the lawns, and get their hands dirty doing minor repairs. I rented to blue collar tenants who stayed with me 8 - 10 years, and never called once on a repair, even though the lease calls for them to cover repairs up to $100.00. At one house, the gutters were all crooked. A few months later, I went by to see if it got worst before I call a gutter guy. I was surprised it's all straightened out. The tenant told me the nails got loose and he just re-nailed everything, and it's no big deal. It was funny his wife heard it, yelled over to say he was besides himself one day, complaining he had nothing to do, so she said "in that case, why don't you get busy and straighten out the gutters".

    This compares to a white collar tenant. Got a complaint that a doorknob is is loose, so I told him just to tighten the screws at the doorknob. His answer?? He doesn't own any screwdrivers. What did I do? I bought a screwdriver set, went over to tighten the doorknob, gifted him the screwdrivers, and told him "next time, you don't have to wait for me.

    Make sure you feel comfortable with the neighborhood. I usually walk or drive around the neighborhood to make sure I'm comfortable living there before investing.

  • Logan AllecBusiness Member
    Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 980 votes
    9y

    @Jeremy Chaser There are many schools of thought on this.  Mine is that I want to buy in the nicest area I can while still cash-flowing (or breaking even).

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  • Investor · Huntersville, NC · Member since 2017 · 45 posts · 34 votes
    9y

    @Logan Allec  I bought my first rental based on future appreciation.  Bought for $350k.  Break even on rent first year.  After two years already appreciated to $500k value.  Expect it to hit $600-700k as soon as the city completes major infrastructure improvements nearby and a massive developer finishes a 200,000 ft2 mixed use high-tech development walking distance away where it used to be a nasty factory.  I expect to up rent over those years significantly as well.

  • Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    All real estate is cyclic and historically that means there's a 7-8 year span between bottom-bottom and/or top-top.  We should all know it's unwise to attempt to time the market, and right now we are long beyond those 7-8years and should be expecting a 'correction' - - but when?

    IMO, betting that the market will (only?) go up or that you can cash out at the 'peak' is like betting on RED OR BLACK.

  • Logan AllecBusiness Member
    Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 980 votes
    9y
    Dave Younts Wow, what a great success story. I bet you're glad you invested in that property over something that will never significantly appreciate but gives you some measly $100/month in cash flow.
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  • Real Estate Investor · Memphis, TN · Member since 2016 · 940 posts · 695 votes
    9y

    @Jeremy Chaser - I'm sure you will get a wide variety of opinions on this, but personally I do not consider appreciation as a wealth building strategy.  Sure, I hope that it happens and expect it to in the area where we purchase, but first and foremost, it must be a good, cash-flowing deal.  I've often heard it said that this is the difference between "investors" and "speculators".  I don't have enough cash reserves to be a speculator and hope for value in 10 years while losing money til then.  Just my 2 cents. 

    Good luck and let us know how it goes!

  • Investor · Huntersville, NC · Member since 2017 · 45 posts · 34 votes
    9y

    @Jeff B.  Agree 100%.  @Logan Allec  The ONLY reason I bought a property for appreciation is because I have significant information that others didn't have about the neighborhood.  This included being a key member of the city's plans regarding infrastructure improvements to the area, local redevelopment of old properties, and I personally spearheaded a $250,000 technology grant for the neighborhood from the city and local foundations.  Insider trading is illegal in the stock market.  It is NOT with real estate.

  • Investor · Cathedral City, CA · Member since 2014 · 481 posts · 170 votes
    9y

    When selected carefully SFH do better. Some of mine went up 100K each in three years.

  • Rental Property Investor · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2015 · 158 posts · 327 votes
    9y

    Buying only for appreciation is speculation. It's just like buying stock, but instead of buying an index fund, you're buying shares in a specific company, and since the transaction costs are high, you're going to stick with it no matter how it performs.

    Doesn't sound so great when presented this way, does it?

    But it is. Usually. Lots of people will tell you that their properties have appreciated 400% over the last 25 years, because that's actually pretty normal. But it doesn't happen everywhere, and it does depend a lot on whether you buy in 2006 or 2009!

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y

    I never buy rentals for appreciation...I buy them for cash flow.  I never like to depend on future events I have no control over.  That to me is speculating. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Lincoln, NE · Member since 2013 · 584 posts · 353 votes
    9y

    Appreciation is a legitimate investment strategy.  It has it's own risks, that are different from a cash flow strategy, but that doesn't mean it's not a realistic strategy.

    We are in the process of adding SFR's to our portfolio, for a couple of reasons, one of which is appreciation potential. We are closing on our first SFR next week and are looking for more.

    I think as long as you can cover your holding costs comfortably and have a long enough horizon, then appreciation isn't any riskier than cash flow.  And, even if the property doesn't appreciate that much, you are still getting the benefit of mortgage pay down.

  • Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    Just for grins, our personal home was purchased in Cupertino in 1973 for 34K sold in 1997 for 305K - - you do the math.

    The clue here is Cupertino; located in the Silicon Valley where the hi-tech companies are co-located -- Google, Oracle, Facebook, Parc/xerox, HP, Apple and it's all located withing hours of the mountains, sea shore, fishing, hiking - - 

    It was only pure luck that my employer moved me to a job in Palo Alto and I got to live there.

    That gain FORCED me into a 1031 for my MFU

  • Logan AllecBusiness Member
    Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 980 votes
    9y

    Agreed, @Wade Sikkink.  Quite frankly I'm getting sick of all those here on BP who poo-poo appreciation and who are obsessed with finding an extra few shekels of "cash flow" every month that will more often than not get eaten up in the long run by repairs and other holding costs.

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  • Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Logan Allec:

    Agreed, @Wade Sikkink.  Quite frankly I'm getting sick of all those here on BP who poo-poo appreciation and who are obsessed with finding an extra few shekels of "cash flow" every month that will more often than not get eaten up in the long run by repairs and other holding costs.

     Sorry my 500+/month/door bothers you - - those aren't shekels to me - - they've sent us to Europe three times in 19 yrs.

  • Rental Property Investor · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2015 · 158 posts · 327 votes
    9y

    How many trips to Europe does a $200k appreciation over 19 years earn you?

  • Peter MacKercherBusiness Member
    Residential Real Estate Broker · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 567 votes
    9y

    Folks that are advocating for appreciation also seem to be outliers in the sense that they're in 1) expensive and historically appreciating markets (NY), or 2) have some insider track with the city about potential redevelopment for the neighborhood. 

    Might you be able to gain some similar insight and then place your bets on a property? Sure, but for the average investor looking to start out there's enough to learn just to get the nuts and bolts of getting a deal and managing property down before you start talking about joining some development board and buying tables at fundraising dinners. One step at a time!

    I'm not picking one over the other, either. Ideally you're considering larger market dynamics in where you pick a property so you can get both aspects of the investment. Appreciation is great, but that's what I call the icing on the cake since that's only realized during a sale. Should the market turn on an appreciation play and sink the price you're hoping to get at sale, you're likely walking into a market that has little liquidity and collapsing values combined, which makes an exit more difficult and extremely stressful. If you have a property that's cash flowing in a downturn, well, hey, it's still cash flowing. That's worth something.

    I completely understand that turning over 30x your original purchase price after holding something that cash flowed for decades is a dream for many of us, but losing sight that you have to be able to operate these properties as a business on a day-to-day basis can put you in a dangerous spot. Building a good income stream is an important part of building wealth, as are big wins, so why not plan for both?

  • Buy & Hold Owner · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @James Free:

    How many trips to Europe does a $200k appreciation over 19 years earn you?

     a whole bunch, but cash flow is predictable year-over-year and appreciation is at the whim of the cyclic market conditions.

    Doubt either of us would convince the other on this subject ...

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jeff B.:

    Just for grins, our personal home was purchased in Cupertino in 1973 for 34K sold in 1997 for 305K - - you do the math.

    The clue here is Cupertino; located in the Silicon Valley where the hi-tech companies are co-located -- Google, Oracle, Facebook, Parc/xerox, HP, Apple and it's all located withing hours of the mountains, sea shore, fishing, hiking - - 

    It was only pure luck that my employer moved me to a job in Palo Alto and I got to live there.

    That gain FORCED me into a 1031 for my MFU

     Do all the math.  That includes all the costs of ownership, such as utility bills, insurance, repairs, interest on your mortgage, etc...that went into that house over those 44 years. Did you refinance during that time period?  Add the cost of interest and fees to that list of costs.  In a rental house, the tenant pays for all of those things through the rent.  In your own home, the homeowner does.

    Here's my math.  Add up the short list of expenses paid over the course of each month.  If the average total was $1,500/month (I'm guessing that's low...very low), that means $17,500/year.  Over 44 years you would have paid at least $770,000 for that "very conservative short list" of expenses.

    So, your actual cost over those 44 years of ownership was more like a minimum of $804,000.  When you sold it, you recovered $305k, so you basically only paid $499k to live in your house for those 44 years.  Your own home is never an investment...no matter how much of a difference between what you bought and sold the house for.

    I'm not saying don't buy a house to live in.  All I'm saying is the only people actually making money on the house we live in are the mortgage companies, and the Real Estate Agents.  Funny how they are the only ones that keep telling us how our own home is our biggest investment. 

  • Member since 2016 · 13k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    9y

    IT depends entirely on your needs. If you need the rent to cover the expenses and have money to put food on your table positive cash flow is absolutely necessary. If you already have all the money you need and simply plan on dabbling in real estate as a hobby there is no harm in ignoring cash flow and speculating on appreciation. Provided you are OK with losing money if the markets turn.

    Ask yourself how many negative cash flow properties can I afford to own, how many positive cash flow properties can I afford to own.

    I personally place a opportunity value on cash of minimum 10% so if you value cash you will understand that if a property can not cash flow with 100% financing it will never have positive cash flow. Equity eats cash flow.

  • Investor · Los Altos, CA · Member since 2014 · 942 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Jeremy Chaser your not crazy for thinking your brothers approach is dangerous.  The flip side of appreciation only, just cash flow, is also crazy.  But what you describe in your thought process is correct, look for cash flow and appreciation.

    The discussion of cash flow vs appreciation always seems to fall into the "one or the other" category of debate.  As an investor you should be looking for both pieces, never one or the other.  The equation is never cash flow = wealth OR appreciation = wealth.  In my personal opinion the equation should be ASSURED cash flow + FORCED appreciation = REAL wealth.  I define assured cash flow as being a rent rate that YOU created, not what the market around you has created.  Meaning no matter what the market rental rates do, you will always be cash flow positive, even during the worst of times.  As for forced appreciation, that basically means you buy a problem building and fix it to get the best use out of it.

    Don't be the guy that buys a "cash flowing" property that is just like all the others in the neighborhood.  When the economy goes bad and market rents start to go down, everybody will be going down the rabbit hole and lowering rates.  You need something that differentiates your units compared to the others, so that you don't have to go down as far as all of the other vanilla rentals.

    As for appreciation, don't let your brother "be that guy" who buys in an area "just because it is booming" and hoping that prices will keep rising. 

    I think you are already on to the path that I am talking about.  You touch on the point of both cash flowing the property and looking for something in a neighborhood that has the potential for general market appreciation.  I would just suggest you add the piece about forced appreciation and assured cash flow.  If you can find that property, you should be safe on the downside of a market and you should reap the benefits of either/both the rent rates or property values going up.

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    I invest primarily for appreciation, but with a few important caveats (to come later after the why) ... Why:

    If you invest for cash flow and you are right, you get cash flow. If you invest for appreciation and you are right, you get BOTH appreciation AND cash flow because price increases and rent increases go hand in hand while most expenses do not scale up as such.

    ... and now, the caveats:

    1. There are 2 "flavors" of appreciation: forced appreciation (which you control) and market appreciation (which you don't control but can screen for neighborhoods with high appreciation potential. I always want both ... the forced appreciation equity bump locks in some profits in the short term that you normally don't get from cash flow in these markets, and then the market appreciation does the rest of the heavy lifting for me over the long term (and if I'm wrong I still have my forced appreciation).
    2. I live locally in a market that is perfectly geared for this strategy. I'm very much a product of my investing environment, but this strategy would not necessarily be optimal for all or even most other markets. In fact, I would even go so far as to say the advantages you'd have as an active local investor would likely trump any perceived or actual benefit you'd get in investing in one type of market or the other remotely ... so I'd say work with what your lcoal RE market has to offer, and that could actually be a fairly wide range with all the local sub-markets. 
    3. Appreciation is impossible to accurately predict in the short run (1-8 years), but I believe that it is not necessarily all that difficult to predict in the long run (decades) if you have a market with a long established track record for it. In this case, you can estimate the long term historical appreciation rate by computing CAGR over multiple decades (spanning multiple RE cycles) and then understanding the driving fundamentals of supply and demand and if they are persistent or not. 
    4. To some extent all buy and hold investors are relying on a certain level of appreciation, whether they realize it or admit it or not, and if they don't get it their investment could be in trouble long term. For example, if you assume 0% appreciation, because betting on appreciation is speculative, then you still have made an assumption about future appreciation that you could be wrong on and may either be conservative or extremely aggressive depending on the market you are in ... there are countless examples of mid-west rust belt markets where the appreciation has been less than zero after factoring in inflation, whereas an appreciation assumption of 4% in a market like SoCal has historically been quite conservative over just about any long term (decades) holding period. 

    Of course, many would and have at length argued over any and all the points above, which is cool because that is how we all learn and grow, but these are my thoughts based on my experiences investing in RE for long awhile now (15 years).

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Thomas S.:

    IT depends entirely on your needs. If you need the rent to cover the expenses and have money to put food on your table positive cash flow is absolutely necessary. If you already have all the money you need and simply plan on dabbling in real estate as a hobby there is no harm in ignoring cash flow and speculating on appreciation. Provided you are OK with losing money if the markets turn.

    Ask yourself how many negative cash flow properties can I afford to own, how many positive cash flow properties can I afford to own.

    I personally place a opportunity value on cash of minimum 10% so if you value cash you will understand that if a property can not cash flow with 100% financing it will never have positive cash flow. Equity eats cash flow.

    Rationalization is the most expensive word in teh REI vocabulary

  • Rental Property Investor · Rockford, IL · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    I'm with @Joe Villeneuve.

    Appreciation should never be a target. It's great when you get it, but buying purely for appreciation? That's gambling, straight up! May as well flush your money down the Wall Street Casino commode.

    You buy a deal because the cash flow numbers make sense. Period. Some properties will appreciate, others may or may not, depending. Commercial multis right now are seeing value changes due to rising interest rates, for example. The change is usually not favorable. Residential multis, on the other hand, have their own set of market forces, mostly due to the availability of both properties and financing.

    My $0.02 ...

  • Mio, MI · Member since 2017 · 28 posts · 15 votes
    9y

    Is it Detroit you are looking into?

  • Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 28 posts · 20 votes
    9y
    Joe Villeneuve I hear you man! That's exactly what Robert kiyosaki said!! Cashflow any day.
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