Massive rental price surge, western PA

Massive rental price surge, western PA

Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes

Following @Steve K.'s recent post on rising rents in his greater area, I took a look at what's going on in my small, urban target area. I'm looking at a clear 25% rise in newly posted rental properties per-square-foot costs in C-class SFR in just the last two months. Not desirable A, B-class, good old-fayshioned low-C-class SFR.

The bus to Crazytown seems pretty crowded when I watch it pass these days. Lots of smug idiots insisting, "There's just no end to this market!" Last time I saw this I was in Greece in 2007, learning the flip game in an environment so out of whack that after the bottom fell out of the giant Ponzi scheme that the country had become, the Greeks were forced to admit the situation would take generations to fix.

I'm not going to cry doom and gloom. I don't see half the same tragic recklessness here as I did in the Hellenic Republic, as it aimed straight for the abyss. But at some point, the music is going to stop and we're all going to scramble for chairs that aren't there. This is the law of asset bubbles from at least 1637 and the Tulip Mania till now. I'll stay the course and keep my eyes on the chairs that ARE there, the ones that are ALWAYS there for the DIY handyman investor: hold on to solid properties, find solid tenants, offer solid pricing and solid maintenance. But this rental price surge is just damned strange. Is it hitting your area?

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Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
5y

I had a 32% rent increase filling my rental in Vegas July 1st. (Vacant June 16th at $1395, new tenant moved in July 1st at $1850.). I had raised the rent 8% 2 years ago when they renewed after 2 years. So somewhere between 32% in 2 years and 40% in 4 years. 

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    5y
    have not seen that big a jump on the west coast and actually some rent compression..  as renters buy up the houses to live in.
  • Rental Property Investor · Jersey City, NJ · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 876 votes
    5y

    Not here either in NJ. The insanity I see is in RE sales, equities and crypto. Now THERE'S some bubbles!

  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K. that is a fat increase for sure. Many people are taking advantage of working from home that combined with the virus has made people rethink their living situation. I don't think it is a bubble but rather supply and demand. I would think if you had an apartment building with an elevator and no green space the picture would look different. Out our way-2 hrs southwest of Seattle, a duplex which typically rented for 1600 now goes for 1900 so ya, that's a decent increase but not crazy, crazy.

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    5y

    I had a 32% rent increase filling my rental in Vegas July 1st. (Vacant June 16th at $1395, new tenant moved in July 1st at $1850.). I had raised the rent 8% 2 years ago when they renewed after 2 years. So somewhere between 32% in 2 years and 40% in 4 years. 

  • Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    Markets in the US are local. Some may be going up unrealistically quickly, and they will correct. Many markets aten doing anything out of the ordinary.

  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    5y

    @Bill B. ya yours is the market I was referring to with the crazy, crazy reference. I believe that's most likely sustainable too because it is driven by out of staters moving in-right?

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    5y

    The buying market is certainly mostly out of staters. Even 15-20 years ago more adults were born out of state than in Nevada. People who can buy a property outright with just the net equity from the house they sell in expensive markets. 

    Renters have to be either newly in from out of state and testing neighborhoods, high earners with bad credit, or people can’t save for a downpayment. Maybe they want the freedom or not owning or expect to leave in the next few years. We get military as well with Nellis and Creech. 

    The inventory is just smaller and smaller with every report. As landlord sell for appreciation or because of headaches almost everytime they’re selling to a primary homeowner, removing one more rental. 

  • Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K. We’re getting so many nomad-worker tech-bro types moving here that medium-term furnished “executive” rentals in prime locations can fetch up to $30k/month (needs to be in a blue-chip location with super high-end luxury finishes/appliances/features obviously to rent for that much, and it’s seasonal, but still, it’s crazy). I’ve never seen rents anywhere close to this high before. The rental market is flooded with the aforementioned remote tech workers and even more so by prospective home-buyers moving here with basically nothing to buy, so they end up renting while they wait for their turn to win the lottery. Even college rentals that had been renting for ~$1,000/room consistently for years are now getting up to $2,500 for a standard room in a shared (dumpy) house near campus. I’m switching strategies from multifamily value-add buy and hold to medium-term furnished. Never thought I’d want a condo before but downtown condos are mints right now (and one of the few market segments with inventory and less competition). Home values went up ~20% last year and rents stayed flat during covid for the most part, but they’re definitely catching up with a vengeance now. I think we’ll see some housing policy reaction to this (rent control, removal of occupancy limits to create more beds for people to legally sleep in).

  • Real Estate Investor · Williamson County, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 961 votes
    5y

    @Jim K. My niece's rent in Phoenix went up 13% from $2300 to $2600 this summer.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    I think some real estate does really well with inflation. Consider two peeps making $15 an hour might put rent bottom near 1500ish a month anywhere ? Idk. It may be the case that Californication of supply is sort of going nation wide thus why some new tracts are already bought up? Fortunately real estate is not a fad. Good luck!

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Steve K.:

    @Jim K. We’re getting so many nomad-worker tech-bro types moving here that medium-term furnished “executive” rentals in prime locations can fetch up to $30k/month (needs to be in a blue-chip location with super high-end luxury finishes/appliances/features obviously to rent for that much, and it’s seasonal, but still, it’s crazy). I’ve never seen rents anywhere close to this high before. The rental market is flooded with the aforementioned remote tech workers and even more so by prospective home-buyers moving here with basically nothing to buy, so they end up renting while they wait for their turn to win the lottery. Even college rentals that had been renting for ~$1,000/room consistently for years are now getting up to $2,500 for a standard room in a shared (dumpy) house near campus. I’m switching strategies from multifamily value-add buy and hold to medium-term furnished. Never thought I’d want a condo before but downtown condos are mints right now (and one of the few market segments with inventory and less competition). Home values went up ~20% last year and rents stayed flat during covid for the most part, but they’re definitely catching up with a vengeance now. I think we’ll see some housing policy reaction to this (rent control, removal of occupancy limits to create more beds for people to legally sleep in).

    I have some suspicions about why what's going on here in the very small area I'm reporting on (it's just one zip code in the Pgh area, +/- 15000 population) is happening right now. But nothing really to hang my hat on at this stage. So I'm just mentioning my unprecedented, cuckoo numbers here.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    I think some real estate does really well with inflation. Consider two peeps making $15 an hour might put rent bottom near 1500ish a month anywhere ? Idk. It may be the case that Californication of supply is sort of going nation wide thus why some new tracts are already bought up? Fortunately real estate is not a fad. Good luck!

    All real estate does well with inflation. The money goes crazy, we're sitting on assets that don't lose their value and our liabilities are loans which are constantly being eroded. I worry less about numbers and more about people. Because as the poor become more and more impoverished, they tend to forget they're temporarily embarrassed millionaires and realize they're POOR, and their behavior becomes unpredictable.

  • Ian WalshBusiness Member
    Lender · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    It could be a bubble or it could be more demand in an area.  When a market softens, the rent rates will align with sale values so that is when we would really know.

  • Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
    5y

    @Jim K. Does your state have eviction moratoriums more strict than CDC?

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Phillip Dwyer:

    @Jim K. Does your state have eviction moratoriums more strict than CDC?

    It varies through the state on a county and even a local basis but in the area I'm talking about, no.

  • Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K.

    Rents in the Lehigh Valley, Pa are getting/have gotten crazy. And super scarce.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Ian Walsh:

    It could be a bubble or it could be more demand in an area.  When a market softens, the rent rates will align with sale values so that is when we would really know.

    Agreed. I don't know. I'm just reporting a very specific hike in a very specific area like I've never seen before.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt M.:

    @Jim K.

    Rents in the Lehigh Valley, Pa are getting/have gotten crazy. And super scarce.

    Yeah, Matt, the scarcity is happening in my target area, too. New rentals are NOT coming online in response to the hike, there are just fewer and fewer rentals available.

    Whatever's coming online is also coming from hands-on operators like us. There's almost no long-distance buying places and turning them into rentals happening.

  • Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K.

    There is literally nothing in my general area on Zillow and FB marketplace.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt M.:

    @Jim K.

    There is literally nothing in my general area on Zillow and FB marketplace.

    You look at the maps, it's like a desert, right?

  • Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K.

    The sahara!

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y

    @Matt M.

    To take that metaphor in a different direction: people wearing ties and jackets tell you not to worry, we're getting "a soft correction" soon, you look out the window and see this.

  • Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K.

    Here’s a good one and some insight to my market.

    Mid may I sent 45 day notice to one of my tenants to be out July 1. She’s a great payer, but we’ve had some disturbances and stuff as of late, messy yard, etc. not how I roll with my properties.

    June 30 comes and I ask her if she will be out the following day. Tenant-“Please can I stay another month, there’s nothing out there, I’ll Venmo rent right now.”

    Me- Um ok

    I just text her an hour ago- “any luck?”

    Her- “no, I look every day, numerous times a day.”

    So I just told her she can stay, month to month, rent goes from $1175 to $1350, beginning August 1, and my list of little issues she needs to clear up.

    Bingo! She’s thrilled and I just raised rent $175/month.

    Btw- April 2019 purchase for $40k. Completely Rehabbed myself - $15k.

    All in $55k, rented for $1350.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt M.:

    @Jim K.

    Here’s a good one and some insight to my market.

    Mid may I sent 45 day notice to one of my tenants to be out July 1. She’s a great payer, but we’ve had some disturbances and stuff as of late, messy yard, etc. not how I roll with my properties.

    June 30 comes and I ask her if she will be out the following day. Tenant-“Please can I stay another month, there’s nothing out there, I’ll Venmo rent right now.”

    Me- Um ok

    I just text her an hour ago- “any luck?”

    Her- “no, I look every day, numerous times a day.”

    So I just told her she can stay, month to month, rent goes from $1175 to $1350, beginning August 1, and my list of little issues she needs to clear up.

    Bingo! She’s thrilled and I just raised rent $175/month.

    Btw- April 2019 purchase for $40k. Completely Rehabbed myself - $15k.

    All in $55k, rented for $1350.

    Eastern Pennsylvania is where it's at, cash-flow rental investors! LOL.

  • Investor · Richmond, VA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Jim K.,

    Rental rates where we invest in Petersburg have skyrocketed!   I'd say rental prices have gone up about $200-300.   A 2bd used to go for $700-800, now they are going for $1095.  Flippers are coming in, renovating vacant homes (YAY!) , and investors are grabbing them and trying to get the max rental income.     I see it all the time.  

    It's absolutely crazy-- and on top of this, like 2500 Afghan families are being housed by Fort Lee, so it's about to get crazier!    I really feel bad for anyone trying to rent now, it's insanely competitive, and I can't see prices going down anytime soon.

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