How will Hurricane Irma affect the Florida Real Estate Market?

[Sergey Tkachev]

On 9/5 we went into contract on an SFR in Holiday, FL (Colonial Hills subdivision), right before Hurricane Irma. This is the northern part of the Tampa Bay area, which did not see as much damage as the areas more south. Our inspection period expires on 9/15, inspection is scheduled for tomorrow, 9/13 - we don't expect any significant surprises based on a preliminary visual check.

The plan was to purchase, rehab/update (requires about $5k-$10k) and have it ready to resell by around winter/spring 2018 or earlier, in time for when the "snow birds" from the northern states are vacationing and looking for property to purchase.  Historically, this is the time of year when demand is slightly higher for homes in that area.

Purchase price is at $94k and ARV in early 2018 is expected to be $140k-160k. At least that was the analysis last week before Irma hit. The neighborhood is desirable for the area, new homes planned to be built a couple streets over, high elevation, no flooding and underground electrical (electricity is fine after the storm).

Here is what I'm wondering about - what kind of an effect will Irma have on the RE market in that area, as well as Florida in general (1) in the short term, meaning today to 1-2 months out AND (2) longer term over the next 6+ months?  I'm wondering if the homes that survived the hurricane become more desirable in these situations or if values come down on all RE regardless?

Would be great to have anyone local from Tampa, Clearwater, Newport Richey and other local areas chime - I know the area is still in emergency modes.

[Dave Foster]

@Sergey Tkachev, I've been hesitating replying cause I'm dealing with a major case of survivor's guilt.  The first to be manditorily evacuated and we came home to power, water, AC and a nice green lawn.  I know many are not that fortunate.  But you'd also be amazed at how hardy folks are here. 

Fundamentals will always paint the picture.  What are wages doing in comparison to rents.  What about general population growth.  Like @Account Closed  is absolutely right to  worry about rehab construction costs.  We have those hurricanes of 04 to thank for that wonderful fiasco of the "Chinese drywall".

Companies, and subsequently people do not change course on a dime.  Investors can also afford a bit of patience to see how things unfold.

Meanwhile I've got to go deal with my biggest problem - the lime tree dropped all its limes so I have to pick them up off the ground before putting them in the margaritas.