How will Hurricane Irma affect the Florida Real Estate Market?

How will Hurricane Irma affect the Florida Real Estate Market?

Sergey TkachevPro Member
Investor, Agent, CPA · West Sacramento, CA · Member since 2009 · 706 posts · 262 votes

On 9/5 we went into contract on an SFR in Holiday, FL (Colonial Hills subdivision), right before Hurricane Irma. This is the northern part of the Tampa Bay area, which did not see as much damage as the areas more south. Our inspection period expires on 9/15, inspection is scheduled for tomorrow, 9/13 - we don't expect any significant surprises based on a preliminary visual check.

The plan was to purchase, rehab/update (requires about $5k-$10k) and have it ready to resell by around winter/spring 2018 or earlier, in time for when the "snow birds" from the northern states are vacationing and looking for property to purchase.  Historically, this is the time of year when demand is slightly higher for homes in that area.

Purchase price is at $94k and ARV in early 2018 is expected to be $140k-160k. At least that was the analysis last week before Irma hit. The neighborhood is desirable for the area, new homes planned to be built a couple streets over, high elevation, no flooding and underground electrical (electricity is fine after the storm).

Here is what I'm wondering about - what kind of an effect will Irma have on the RE market in that area, as well as Florida in general (1) in the short term, meaning today to 1-2 months out AND (2) longer term over the next 6+ months?  I'm wondering if the homes that survived the hurricane become more desirable in these situations or if values come down on all RE regardless?

Would be great to have anyone local from Tampa, Clearwater, Newport Richey and other local areas chime - I know the area is still in emergency modes.

0Reply
105 views

Most Popular Reply

Dave FosterBusiness Member
Qualified Intermediary for 1031 Exchanges · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2013 · 9k+ posts · 9k+ votes
9y

@Sergey Tkachev, I've been hesitating replying cause I'm dealing with a major case of survivor's guilt.  The first to be manditorily evacuated and we came home to power, water, AC and a nice green lawn.  I know many are not that fortunate.  But you'd also be amazed at how hardy folks are here. 

Fundamentals will always paint the picture.  What are wages doing in comparison to rents.  What about general population growth.  Like @Account Closed  is absolutely right to  worry about rehab construction costs.  We have those hurricanes of 04 to thank for that wonderful fiasco of the "Chinese drywall".

Companies, and subsequently people do not change course on a dime.  Investors can also afford a bit of patience to see how things unfold.

Meanwhile I've got to go deal with my biggest problem - the lime tree dropped all its limes so I have to pick them up off the ground before putting them in the margaritas.

The 1031 Investor5137 Reviews
See this reply in the discussion

35 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Broker · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2015 · 351 posts · 273 votes
    9y

    I read an interesting article about the conflict between landlords and tenants in Texas. Landlords are wanting to end leases so they can strip out all of the water damaged materials before mold sets in, but the tenants are refusing to leave because they have no place to go.

  • Charles SoperPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Merritt Island, FL · Member since 2015 · 253 posts · 178 votes
    9y

    @Matt Shields I wonder if that's a case for requiring renter's insurance?  Pretty sure most policies would include loss of use to the renter...

  • Broker · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2015 · 351 posts · 273 votes
    9y

    I don't know if it would cover floods. Probably good to look at the policy if your in a hurricane prone area. Even so, the problem is there is nothing to rent.

  • Property Manager · Tampa, FL · Member since 2016 · 34 posts · 25 votes
    9y

    Erika, we hardly had any damage so I don't expect any shortages locally. The lack of electricity and internet was annoying but we are back to normal.

  • Investor · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2016 · 19 posts · 18 votes
    9y

    Thanks Jana.  I have been in touch with my agent and contractors down there.  My agent is still without power at home, but has it at the office.  The big issue so far has been contact with the listing agent to check the status of the property.  I still don't have confirmation that it came out ok.  It has a few big old trees in the yard that are a concern.  

    Glad to hear things are getting back to normal!

  • Sergey TkachevPro Member
    OP
    Investor, Agent, CPA · West Sacramento, CA · Member since 2009 · 706 posts · 262 votes
    9y

    @Thomas S. - I think the problematic part of the argument that government should not allow anyone to build in those areas is that it is too broad of a blanket policy and if the same principle is applied equally to other areas of the state and country, there will be many places that you will want to apply those restrictions to.  By the same logic, here in California we get earthquakes and are expecting another major quake soon and so many places that are being built on currently would have to be restricted.  That will create unnecessary shortages and increase prices even more.  From an economics standpoint, it is not the wisest way to solve a problem and I say this from personal experience, coming from a country that took that approach to the extreme - the more government restrictions you have the more problems starts coming out from other ends, you start having shortages, then you have to control pricing from significant increases, and so on and so forth and you end up with so many restrictions you might as well just not do anything at all.  I realize this may be more of a political/philosophical approach but I stand strong by that position because I'd hate to see the US take the same destructive approach.

    In regards to insurance, I take a similar approach.  It will not help to restrict insurers from insuring higher risk areas.  The insurance companies them selves much assess the risks and that is why generally, policies for higher risk areas will cost more than for lower risk areas, so the more risk you add to the pool the more you pay, which is much more fair than not providing a service to people who are ready to pay more for that service.  And if an insurance company wants to take that higher risk, the should be allowed to make that decision without government intrusion.

    I'm not trying to argue, just adding some balance to the conversation :)

    @Joseph Reynolds, very true, I've been thinking about the same a remembering the couple of years leading up to the last crash

    @Matt Shields and @@Charles Soper this conversation does make me appreciate the importance of renters insurance more than ever before

    @Jana Hristova, it's good to hear things are getting back to normal!

  • Investor · Sunnyvale, CA · Member since 2017 · 15 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    I'm also following this thread with great interest as I'm planning to buy an investment in West Palm in the coming weeks.  In addition, I'd be interested in any meetups in early October because I might be coming out for inspections and would like to meet folks while I'm out.  

  • Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2017 · 17 posts · 1 vote
    9y

    Renter's insurance is a MUST now. I am currently renting and verified that we'd be covered if there was any damage during the hurricanes prior to. Flood insurance is typically something purchased separately but for any other type of damage suffered as a result of the storms (tree through the roof, broken windows, etc.) we would have been covered. 

  • Sergey TkachevPro Member
    OP
    Investor, Agent, CPA · West Sacramento, CA · Member since 2009 · 706 posts · 262 votes
    9y

    Wanted to give you guys - we closed on the house on Sep 25, planning to have it listed for rent by the end of this week.  I spent 8 days in the Tampa Bay area and everything was business as usual.  The trip pretty much answered many of my initial questions/concerns.  It doesn't look like the market was affected much by hurricane Irma, the market is still hot and climbing.  It was great to meet up with @Dave Foster, thank you again for the good conversations! I'd encourage anyone traveling outside of your "home area" to seek out local BP'er and hang out.

    @Julieta Pina, thanks for your input!  Yes, rental insurance is definitely becoming standard nowadays.

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.