Investor · Camden , NJ · Member since 2010 · 77 posts · 7 votes
Do you believe in hyperinflation??Seems like every where i turn I'm hearing this word ... It's a very scary word  sounds like a horror movie . Guess the government  are the ones with the mask ,.. Lol :)Â
My question is do u believe in hyperinflation  .. If you do how are you preparing for it ???
Me myself I do believe the gap between the rich and poor is increasing everyday . !!!!Â
Flipper/Rehabber · Louisville, KY · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
Exactly, James. Lots of people like to throw the word around. Keep the fear alive!!
But it is very rare indeed. It isn't something that just arises out of high debt or rising money supply. There are several factors that must converge at the same moment in time and they must converge on the right country at the right time.
It is not enough to find 1 or 2 similarities between the US now and other countries which experienced hyperinflation. You have to go much deeper than that.
Unfortunately most people don't go deeper. They read a misleading headline and jump to wild conclusions.
In the current real world, you should fear the effects of stagnation or deflation much more than hyperinflation. It is economically impossible for an economy to be teetering on the edge between deflation and hyperinflation. But if you listen to the kooks mostly on a certain cable "news" channel, that is apparently where we are.
It is ridiculous.
Is it reasonable to prepare for some inflation? Sure. But talk of hyperinflation is simply that...hyperbole.
Flipper/Rehabber · Seminole, FL · Member since 2010 · 859 posts · 316 votes
15y
No i dont. I think we will see severe inflation but it aibt be enough to fit the definition if hyperinflation. I must credit Bryan Hancock for forcing me to research this topic to arrive at that conclusion.
Investor · Camden , NJ · Member since 2010 · 77 posts · 7 votes
15y
I do believe times will get worse ... Bread and milk will raise in prices gas will go up ... Do you have advice on books of videos I can see that lead you to your conclusion . I truly want to educate myself in this topic . Everything I have read or watch has lead to me to the conclusion of hyperinflation .. I want to see both angles so I can prepare myself for the years upon us !!!!
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
John T. Reed has a book on hyperinflation and depression. I highly recommend reading it. It will shatter your ideas about inflation hedges in the extreme cases.
I have asked this same question 20 different times in 20 different ways on this forum and nobody ever has good evidence of looming HYPERinflation. Many subscribe to elevated inflation in later years, but the hyperinflation story has no credibility as far as I can tell.
If others have a good argument for it I would love to see it.
Flipper/Rehabber · Louisville, KY · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
Exactly, James. Lots of people like to throw the word around. Keep the fear alive!!
But it is very rare indeed. It isn't something that just arises out of high debt or rising money supply. There are several factors that must converge at the same moment in time and they must converge on the right country at the right time.
It is not enough to find 1 or 2 similarities between the US now and other countries which experienced hyperinflation. You have to go much deeper than that.
Unfortunately most people don't go deeper. They read a misleading headline and jump to wild conclusions.
In the current real world, you should fear the effects of stagnation or deflation much more than hyperinflation. It is economically impossible for an economy to be teetering on the edge between deflation and hyperinflation. But if you listen to the kooks mostly on a certain cable "news" channel, that is apparently where we are.
It is ridiculous.
Is it reasonable to prepare for some inflation? Sure. But talk of hyperinflation is simply that...hyperbole.
Investor · Camden , NJ · Member since 2010 · 77 posts · 7 votes
15y
Thanks ...
John T reed book sounds like a great read I will be purchasing it ..
I want to see both views ..
I do believe times will get rough but not to the point that our currency dies .. Although the dollar is losing value I can't seeing it dying ..
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
15y
Originally posted by Lisandro Garcia:
Do you believe in hyperinflation??
Is that like asking, "Do you believe in God?" or "Do you believe in Santa Clause?" :D
If so, the answer is yes...I do believe that hyperinflation exists.
That said, I don't believe that it should be a serious concern over the short-term (within 10 years) in this country. If you spend some time studying macroeconomic theory and do some research into what has driven hyperinflation in other countries throughout recent history, you should be somewhat reassured that this isn't a huge concern in the U.S. in the near-term.
That said, anything can happen if the right circumstances converge...it just doesn't appear they are at this time...
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
15y
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
Originally posted by Tom Cullen:
Anything can happen, and usually not in the way you expect.
Yup...like we could have severe deflation too.
Now that I think about it, there are billions of things I don't expect to happen...
For example, I don't expect a U.S. invasion by Norwegian housewives hell bent on taking over fast food restaurants and conveniences stores across the nation. Does this mean we should be preparing our defenses against this possibility?
Personally, I'd rather we spend our efforts on those things that we expect (based on experience, logic and facts) to happen...and if the Norwegian housewives should invade, I'll eat my words...and their fast food... :D
Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
15y
Seems like stagflation is a much more likely possibility. If QE2 fails that money pumped into the system may cause creeping inflation. Meanwhile people are still out of work, unemployment is high, which is the stagnation part. Also, gas prices are creeping up again and higher energy prices, actions by OPEC, etc. were associated with stagflation in the '70s.
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
15y
Tom -
I don't think anyone is arguing with the stuff we learned in Macro Economics 101...all economies will see inflationary and deflationary periods, but it very rarely leads to hyperinflation.
As Bryan asked, why do you believe that this time is going to culminate in what is a tremendously rare occurrence?
Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
Tom,
Do you think think it is the legislated spending increases lately that will cause hyperinflation here or other factors such as legislated extension of credit that's been predetermined to be insolvent?
Remember Tom, hyperinflation is a "tremendously rare occurrence" that the United States has already induced twice through government fiat creation and spending, and worldwide has only happened 26 times since 1980. With the "tremendous rarity" of an occurrence that the US has already done twice in it's history and for the last 30 years averages out to close to 1 hyper inflating currency per year, we can't be to sure that the same indicators the preceded hyperinflation 28 times will happen again. Remember, 29th time's a charm.
My apologies to the OP on this thread tending toward a political discussion. Some members of our board wish to twist every single thread into a blame-game and pick political fights. When asked to produce facts to support their wild ideas, half-truths, and propaganda we always get the same response...radio silence.
SJSU is where I did my MBA work. I've taken two courses with Professor Watkins.
I'm quite certain that he'd laugh at your last post about "exponential" debt increase (see Bryan's links to understand why). And he'd also laugh at Tim's post about the U.S. experiencing two episodes of hyper-inflation during it's history.
Unfortunately, it's easy to see how the U.S. has slipped to 15th in the world in education...
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
Okay...I'll play along despite the obvious dodging of key questions.
Again...If this is such a critical issue and you are SOLD of the fact that there will be HYPERinflation in this country with absolutely no sound logic to support it why aren't you taking extreme measures to protect yourself as much as possible?
If you are a hard money lender at you are loaning money at 18% with a few points do you know what that money will be worth in a few months in hyperinflation? Zilch...nada...zippo. So why are you doing it and simultaneously preaching currency armageddon? I fully expect for this question to be rhetorical because it has been asked 5 or so times on this same subject with this same set of posters and they choose to ignore it. I threw it is this thread for posterity though.
So...what say you doom and gloomers? If financial collapse is imminent why are you engaging in actions that will destroy your financial well being if you are convinced that the end of our currency is near?
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
15y
Originally posted by Tom Cullen:
The thesis of this article is that we've avoided hyperinflation...
Tom -
If you see Tim's post above, he clearly disagrees with you, saying we've had hyperinflation twice in this country:
Originally posted by Tim W:
Remember Tom, hyperinflation is a "tremendously rare occurrence" that the United States has already induced twice through government fiat creation and spending...
And Glenn Beck claimed that we've had hyperinflation more than a dozen times in this country...
Sounds like all the big names in Economics are in disagreement here...
Investor · Camden , NJ · Member since 2010 · 77 posts · 7 votes
15y
-This whole post made my week ...Â
 Bryan I couldn't agree w you more .. I recently watch a video on hyperinflation and the "end of the world " as we know it .. At the end of the video it  was promoting becoming a member of this "exclusive " club that will help you  prepare you for hyperinflation the funniest part to me was in the video it stated that The end of the dollar  was about 6-12 months away .. At the end of the video it tells you  to become a member for $97 a month or a flat rate of x amount of dollars for a year ,..  You telling me the dollar is dying in few months  but you are still charging me in dollars .. !!!Â
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
I disagree...If you "prepare" by not investing the money and/or doing the things that are REALLY required to protect yourself from hyperinflation you trade off a lot by doing so. Everything in life has an economic price and preparing for financial ruin of our economy has a HIGH price.