Still Waiting On Hyperinflation...

Still Waiting On Hyperinflation...

Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Well the uber doom-and-gloomers have been decidedly reticent of late. This changed recently in the blog arena. Changes in purchasing patterns of bonds later this year seem to have everyone in a tizzy now.

I renew my stance that all of this HYPERinflation rhetoric is utter nonsense. These positions are generally coupled with someone trying to sell something (commodities, coaching, advice, etc.) so please be skeptical when you see them posted.

Following is a great, level-headed article on the subject for those that are interested:

Why the Pessimists Are Wrong About Inflation

and here are the real inflation rates:

Shadowstats

I renew my request for anyone to provide TANGIBLE evidence that we are headed for hyperinflation.

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Developer · Member since 2010 · 72 posts · 31 votes
15y

Hyperinflation is different than inflation. If you take the original defination of inflation, (and as currently used by Austrian School Economists) you track inflation as an increase in the money supply, and price increases (commonly referred to as inflation today) are the effect of the money printing. So first defining which inflation, monetary inflation, or price inflation you are talking about is required.

There is no doubt that money supply has been inflated recently. The fed publishes figures and you can see what is going on. Somewhat more difficult to see is price inflation. The CPI is the most common but is skewed to make the govt look good. Looking at prices of common goods one can see price inflation; see gasoline, health care, college tuition, food, silver, oil, etc. The basic commodities are shooting up, which means that all derivative products are also getting more expensive. One way that producers are trying to mask this is by making packages smaller; a "green" package, "effeciency" packages, etc. The net result is maybe only a 10% increase in price, but when you couple that with the 15-20 decrease in product per package, you get 30-40% inflation. And this is happening more and more in the last year or two.

So that was inflation (the two types). Hyperinflation, on the other hand, is a loss in confidence in the currency being printed. It is not like in monopoly, when the more money you get, the more prices go up (remember, at first you dont have much money, so deals are cheap, but as the game progresses and everyone has tons of cash, the bids get higher and higher, hmm, sounds like the housing bubble), but rather that people realise that there is inflation, and that the currency is not a store of value, and they go out to spend (get rid of it, ie exchange it for something of value) it before it is worth less. So hyperinflation is when people do not trust their money anymore and want to buy stuff before the price goes up (ie the value of the paper money declines further).

So hyperinflation is a rare event, but not as rare, nor as impossible as people would like to believe. Argentina is now experiencing inflation in the area of 30% per year, this is very soon going to be hyperinflation if history has any rhyme to it.

The main complication today IMO with the hyperinflation/deflation/inflation debates is that there was such a huge increase in debt (learn how money is issued from banks, they can loan (create, print) 10x the money they have on deposit) money in the last couple bubbles that when the bubbles collapse the debt money disappears, this is monetary deflation (not price deflation) but means that there is less "wealth" on paper, and real losses for many. And debt is spending today what we need to tomorrow pay for, and if the earnings and savings are not there to pay, then money is tight. So the money printing, which is going to the banks to make up for that 10x debt money they created which is evaporating, and not going to the unemployed, underwater, etc, is not having such a big effect on prices yet... But money chases yield. Not going to housing yet, still such debt, and bankers not gonna buy their own shadow inventory, so it goes to stock markets and commodities. That is why the stock market has held up so well, and why commodities are so highly priced. And that is why food, clothes, etc are showing price inflation as well.

I do not see hyperinflation (remember, this a loss in confidence in the currency) happening yet; the US is still the largest producer of food in the world, still dominant in most areas, still no clear alternative (other than gold, etc) so most will cling to the hope that the US will be a safe haven. And remember, most people would rather believe the easy lie than face the hard truth, so they will cling to what has been, rather than look at the facts and accept what is coming.

I think that the situation is unsustainable, but for hyperinflation to come, people need to realize that, accept that, and react accordingly. I do not see the realization on a large scale yet; most would rather believe the easy lie perpetuated by politicians and media and bankers and real estate pros (NAR statistics, sorry for offending any straight shooting real estate people, but so many are clueless and lie) who push housing as the best investment, retirement/'investment managers, etc. They do not yet want to think that something is wrong and take the next step to figure out what and why, which would lead to what to do. When that happens (assuming that the economy and spending continue in this same direction, major deficits, high rate of unemployment, debt overhangs, etc) then you can worry about "hyperinflation", but for now it will be inflation, or stagflation, re the 70's. And look what happened then; gold, oil, etc shot up. Interest rates shot up. Inflation shot up. And then the economy took off, after a long period. Will that happen again this time? who knows, history does not repeat, but is rhymes. Some things are different this time; high debt, low savings, cannot really lower taxes more due to already insane deficit, wars, high oil, lots of jobs have been offshored and not coming back, it is a global economy now, not a US economy, so competion is worldwide for jobs, so many may not come back soon, at least as they were.

My outlook? Things which you "need", ie oil, clothes, food, healthcare, etc, will continue to get more expensive in the near term. Things which were financed/bought with debt will continue to get cheaper in the near term, ie housing, cars, boats, vacation cabins, toys, etc. People have to get rid of the debt items (cant pay for them) and pay for the things they need. And with higher unemployment, and tighter credit (banks not giving money to customers, putting it to "pay off bad debt", investing it in stocks, commodities,etc, remember money chases yield and the bankers have been burnt on housing and consumers, wonder why your HELOC which was unused was cancelled even tho you have 800 credit?), financing is not as big an option as it was.

So what about real estate? No crystal ball, I threw it away a long time ago... but I think that having a part of net worth in real estate or income producing assets is worthwhile. betting on appreciation will be a losing game for a while IMO, but if you can cashflow a decent amount and hang on to what you have even if prices drop another 30% (it can happen...) then you will be positioned well if/when prices increase in the future (10-15 years from now). remember, bottoms take time, recoveries are not instantaneous and even with the money pumping by the fed, this will take a while. but being in place, not too high leverage, and cashflowing allows you to build equity, gain experience, and when the prices start to rise, pull the equity out of your houses and start to buy. Not your own money at that point because renters have paid it.

Those are my thoughts, lol, just lookint that this was "quick reply"

Tony.

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  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    We're going on 4 years now since I originally started this post.  The hyperinflation folks haven't been around much since the economy has improved.  I just wanted to point out that we're still waiting ;-)

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bryan Hancock:

    We're going on 4 years now since I originally started this post.  The hyperinflation folks haven't been around much since the economy has improved.  I just wanted to point out that we're still waiting ;-)

    They're holed up in their underground bunkers and aren't aware that the economy has improved (or that civilization has continued on)...

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Jon Klaus:

    I got a line of credit at prime rate (3.25%) in 2008. I have continually thought was going to go up. It hasn't. I've been paying 3.25% for 3 years. If you had asked me 2 years ago what I thought my rate would be now, I might have guessed 6-8%. I was wrong. So what will it be in 2 years from now?

     3.5 years later...it's exactly the same...

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    I will be happy to drag this thread up to say you were correct.

    Matty - It's been several years...ready to say Bryan was correct, yet?

  • Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
    11y

    Absolutely, J Scott -

    Bryan Hancock, you were correct. 

    I feel lucky to have purchased metal low enough to still be up during this last three year bear. However, hindsight tells me I should have instead put more $ in Real Estate during the crash, and read fewer doom and gloom blogs. 

    Nicely done Bryan Hancock

  • Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
    11y

    That said, we are in what feels to be a slightly hyper-inflated tech bubble and I have been enjoying that. 

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    That said, we are in what feels to be a slightly hyper-inflated tech bubble and I have been enjoying that. 

     Definitely agree with that...though I think it's slightly more than slightly based on some recent stories I've heard from old friends back in Silicon Valley...

  • Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @J Scott:
    Originally posted by @Jon Klaus:

    I got a line of credit at prime rate (3.25%) in 2008. I have continually thought was going to go up. It hasn't. I've been paying 3.25% for 3 years. If you had asked me 2 years ago what I thought my rate would be now, I might have guessed 6-8%. I was wrong. So what will it be in 2 years from now?

     3.5 years later...it's exactly the same...

     I still have the same 3.25% line of credit.   It's done more than its fair share of heavy lifting. 

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    What's also interesting is how much less interest there is in this post now than there was 2 years ago.  In general the lunacy on the site has diminished considerably.  Much of this is probably because the political topics were removed, but a lot also seems to be stemming from times being better.

    I reread the whole thread yesterday and nobody ever supplied a tangible plan to protect themselves from HYPERinflation.  If anyone has a good plan I'd still love to see it.  

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Eventually the Fed will unwind QE and things will get interesting.

  • Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bob E.:

    Eventually the Fed will unwind QE and things will get interesting.

     What do you expect to happen, Bob?

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Jon Klaus  I think it depends on how the Fed chooses to end QE.  If the fed starts selling off their holdings it will push interest rates up.  That will make it much harder for the government to pay the interest on the debt.

    In the end the government can do two things, get spending less then revenue and start retiring the debt, or barring that put a tax on money (inflation) so that the government can pay the debt back with "cheaper dollars".  My bet is on inflation.  I hope I am wrong.  When it hits who knows but our politicians show no sign of self control.  Republicans want to endlessly reduce taxes, Democrats have a never-ending wish list of problems they want government to solve.

    When people ask what they think the next bible is I always say "Government debt".  Look at 10 year treasury rates and tell me that those numbers are realistic.

  • Investor · Lucas, TX · Member since 2010 · 620 posts · 352 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bryan Hancock:

    I reread the whole thread yesterday and nobody ever supplied a tangible plan to protect themselves from HYPERinflation.  If anyone has a good plan I'd still love to see it.  

    There will be no hyper-inflation here in our life times. That only happens to revolutionary governments. Our government will tax us all to death first before it kills the goose that lays the golden egg and burns all the bond holders with hyper-inflation.

    As to having a good plan. Is that a trick question? Forgive me for displaying what must be my ignorance but I thought that was simple. Tangible assets and what better tangible asset than RE. 

  • Investor · Wichita Falls, TX · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 603 votes
    11y

    Real assets and long term fixed rate debt are two ways I like to think I'm preparing for any inflation as well :)

    I admit, I haven't read through this whole thread!

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    What is inflation ? Rising prices!

    So be the person who is rising prices (Landlord) and have fixed rate financing on your property.  The combination of fixed expenses with rising income will protect you for as long as you can keep your property rented.

    In one year back in 79 we had 12% inflation, the next year we had 13% inflation.  So in two years that's 25%,  Of course that can happen again.

  • Investor · Appleton, WI · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 464 votes
    11y

    Bob.  Look at he 10 year on the Japanese yen. Extremely low for decades and they have even higher debt to gdp. It is a function of the operational realities of our monetary system. The biggest disconnect is that folks compare household finance to federal government finances and they operate under vastly different rules.

  • Investor · Carrollton, TX · Member since 2015 · 109 posts · 76 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bob E.:

    What is inflation ? Rising prices!

    So be the person who is rising prices (Landlord) and have fixed rate financing on your property.  The combination of fixed expenses with rising income will protect you for as long as you can keep your property rented.

    In one year back in 79 we had 12% inflation, the next year we had 13% inflation.  So in two years that's 25%,  Of course that can happen again.

    No, inflation is not rising prices. Inflation is the total amount of money in circulation compared to the total amount of goods/services. Prices change daily without inflation or deflation.

    As an example, the price of a VCR in 1985 (see link

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1985-09-22/news/8503040687_1_vcr-boom-suppliers-marketers ) was around 200-400 dollars for an average VCR. Today, you can get a Blue Ray DVD for 69.99 ( link

    http://www.bestbuy.com/site/samsung-bd-j5100-za-streaming-blu-ray-player-black/3147057.p?id=1219573000938&skuId=3147057 ). Does that mean there has been massive DEFLATION? Of course not. It means that there are price substitutions all the time some things get more expensive, some things get less expensive. Inflation is not a price phenomenon, it's a monetary phenomenon.

    More specifically it's related to credit, as the only way to increase the money supply is through the issuance of debt. Whether that debt is government debt or private consumer debt it doesn't matter, it's still the aggregate debt level that matters. That's because the only way to create money is through debt. The treasury can't print money to create it without issuing Treasury bonds (government debt). The fed doesn't print money, they buy government bonds (created debt).

    If you look at the overall aggregate debt growth rates, in 2005 it was 9.0%, 2006 8.4%, 2007 8.2%. Compare that to 2011 3.6%, 2012 5.0%, 2013 3.8%, 2014 4.3%. So if productivity grows faster than debt, you actually get deflation. It's the slowing down of debt growth relative to productivity growth that prevents hyperinflation.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    Ron Paul has a new video out stoking the hyperinflation fires:

    12-Term Congressman Ron Paul's Warning to Americans about the Coming Currency Crisis

    And we're still waiting...

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Some people are worried about the government debt endlessly increasing.  I have it on good authority that there is nothing to worry about because: "This time it's different".

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    Yup....this time is different Bob.  Things are exceedingly more complicated than what is taught in Econ 101.  Here are a few articles on the subject:

    Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes.

    Money Growth Does Not Cause Inflation!

    And we are still waiting....

  • Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    One of my favorite Econ specific sites... note the status of Greece, Italy & Japan, then review what could foretell the impending retraction then demise of a once powerful US economy.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gove...

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Pat L.:

    One of my favorite Econ specific sites... note the status of Greece, Italy & Japan, then review what could foretell the impending retraction then demise of a once powerful US economy.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gove...

    Most people look at the Debt:GDP ratio and are only concerned about one side of it (the debt).  But, the truth is, if you focus on the other side (GDP), you can see an amazingly quick shift from illiquity to liquidity.

    For example, take a look at India.  Over the past 20 years, they've focused on education (and have some of the best in the world among technology and information services); in that same time, take a look at the Debt:GDP ratio.

    While I'm a big proponent of cutting debt (or at least eliminating a deficit), in my opinion, this country needs to focus more on education to ensure that GDP continues to grow through innovation and IP.  If we don't focus our resources on improving education in this country, we're most certainly screwed long-term...

  • Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Good point ....  unfortunately most companies in the USA will continue to find it more expedient to simply boost & accelerate H-1B applications to meet the demand for highly qualified yet disposable technical people.

    Meanwhile higher education here is, by virtue of excessive student loans, adding significantly to the country's debt without any appreciable impact on graduating STEM numbers. The proverbial Catch-22 comes to mind !!!

    I seriously considered sending my youngest daughter to my alma mater in Australia where her tuition, residence & healthcare would have cost 50% less than just the tuition here, but I was out voted.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y

    5 months later I wanted to point out we're still waiting.  The billion prices project is showing very slight deflation of late:

    The Billion Prices Project @ MIT

    and we wait....

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y

    There was some activity on this thread today so I wanted to point out that 7 months later we're still waiting.  

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