FED finally admits we're in for a correction. Thoughts?
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
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FED finally admits we're in for a correction. Thoughts?
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Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
4yCan we stop just throwing out ridiculous numbers out there? Can we use some perspective and do away with the hyperbole.
20-25% drop in prices would be a range that is slightly worse than the housing collapse 15 years ago to dramatically worse....as that drop was 19% from peak quarter to bottom quarter. If we measured the yearly averages instead of quarterly peak and trough, it was a 10% drop. That 19%/10% drop nearly destroyed the world economy and nearly sent us into a 2nd Great Depression. So saying 20-25% is suggesting something even much worse that what happened from 2007-2011.
So you're saying with your prediction that we are basically going to be entering the next Great Depression.
Or what is more likely? What are the current risks in the economy right now? Is deflation a force we are currently fighting?....or are we in a high inflationary environment from the 50% increase in the money supply since the Spring of 2020.
What happened the last time we had such a big increase in the money supply which occurred under the Nixon administration? High inflation...just like we are experiencing now. The loose monetary policy in 2018 and 2019 was predictably going to lead to this...then the 2020 money supply increase threw gasoline onto the already burning fire.
So after the same thing happened in the 1970s after home prices rose 200% in just a few years under these conditions, what happened next? They rose another 100% in a couple years, til the rate finally slowed to 10% rises per year in the 3 year run up and following peak interest rates. Think about that, at the highest interest rates ever recorded, the yearly rise in home prices, after slowing substantially, are in line with the rise in the last 3 years. What we are saying is an unsustainable rise in prices, would have been the slowest rise in prices during the 70s to early 80s high interest rate/high inflationary envorment.
Inflation is a pretty easy concept when you dont try to complicate it.
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” - Milton Friedman
Inflation isn't going to reverse itself. It can be tamed, but the clock doesnt turn backwards. For the last 122 years there has been 1 force that forces prices on real estate down in any significant amounts...and that is a lack of availability of credit/debt. It happened in the Great Depression when banks were failing left and right. It happened during the Savings and Loan Crisis 60 years later when all the S&Ls failed. Then it happened during the Financial Crisis 20 years after that, again when the banking system was collapsing. Unless there is an unknown banking crisis on the horizon, it's just wishful thinking by investors hoping prices drop so they can buy more and PTSD from the Financial Crisis, which is just recentcy bias.
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- Real Estate Agent · Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 847 posts · 656 votes4y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
@Nathan G.
More food for thought. Some experts are lowering their expectations.
https://fortune.com/2022/09/25/these-210-housing-markets-are-now-vulnerable-to-20-25-home-price-declines-finds-moodys-latest-downgrade/
@Russell Brazil @James Hamling
That’s the thing with moody’s…they have actual economists who look at things like interest rates, and forecast that into the models. They don’t look at historical charts when the rules of the game (rates up massively) have changed on a dime. You won’t see it in the data for a few more months (except the sharpest drop ever MoM in the case Schiller index earlier this week)Do you know what the Case Schiller index actually measures?
Hint, it is not actual housing/real estate prices.
And the "largest decline" was not a decline in prices, it was a decline in the growth rate. The growth rate slowed from 18.1% to 15.8%. The growth rate slowed by 2.3%.
I think everyone can agree that a yearly growth rate of 18.1% isn't sustainable and had to slow at some point....and will continue to slow.
“The Case-Shiller Index, formally known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, is an economic indicator that measures the change in value of U.S. single-family homes on a monthly basis.”
prices dropped from June to July, that’s a fact.
of course it’s still going to be a huge inflated number, because it’s still factoring in fake prices using 3 percent interest rates in 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022. Just wait until we get a full 12 months of data where we are comparing like-kind transactions (high rates vs high rates)
I don’t know why you all keep using stale old data with fake interest rates that don’t exist anymore to determine housing isn’t dropping. Use your calculator, you don’t need to be Mensa to figure this out.LMAO..... Ok, now, so if anyone shows or says anything, for example you say prices dropped from June to July, I showed you the MLS data showing NO IT DIDN'T in my core market, but, so now you call that "fake" prices, FAKE prices, lol. WTF is a FAKE price?
So far you've dictated equity is no longer equity, it's "Shadow" equity, fake in your eyes. Prices are now FAKE prices, if you don't like them. Interest rates, RATES are now somehow something of a problem if they are 3, not sure what trauma Sesame Street gave you but ok, you don't like the #3, I get it, we will leave that alone then.
Joe, come on man, really.......
Your loosing your sh#t here trying to convince everyone the sky is falling, it's all burning to the ground. I pumped out chart after chart PROVING it's NOT in a major market via live time numbers, and I even gave the full view going back as far as it would pull, 2012. Your response, was to say it was trash because it went back to 2012..... I mean, really, REALLY....
There is clearly only 1 and only 1 acceptable outcome for you and that's when we all bow at the alter of "Joe". You've earned my block.
Prices did in fact drop from July to august, already happened, peaked at 414k, in august it was 389k that’s a 6% drop in two months during a time prices are usually still going up and that’s with rates in the mid 5’s. With rates in the mid 6’s it would take over 40% of the average americans salary to afford housing, the average family with no other debt would be on the borderline of being even eligible for a mortgage on a median priced house.
- Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Jack Seiden:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
@Nathan G.
More food for thought. Some experts are lowering their expectations.
https://fortune.com/2022/09/25/these-210-housing-markets-are-now-vulnerable-to-20-25-home-price-declines-finds-moodys-latest-downgrade/
@Russell Brazil @James Hamling
That’s the thing with moody’s…they have actual economists who look at things like interest rates, and forecast that into the models. They don’t look at historical charts when the rules of the game (rates up massively) have changed on a dime. You won’t see it in the data for a few more months (except the sharpest drop ever MoM in the case Schiller index earlier this week)Do you know what the Case Schiller index actually measures?
Hint, it is not actual housing/real estate prices.
And the "largest decline" was not a decline in prices, it was a decline in the growth rate. The growth rate slowed from 18.1% to 15.8%. The growth rate slowed by 2.3%.
I think everyone can agree that a yearly growth rate of 18.1% isn't sustainable and had to slow at some point....and will continue to slow.
“The Case-Shiller Index, formally known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, is an economic indicator that measures the change in value of U.S. single-family homes on a monthly basis.”
prices dropped from June to July, that’s a fact.
of course it’s still going to be a huge inflated number, because it’s still factoring in fake prices using 3 percent interest rates in 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022. Just wait until we get a full 12 months of data where we are comparing like-kind transactions (high rates vs high rates)
I don’t know why you all keep using stale old data with fake interest rates that don’t exist anymore to determine housing isn’t dropping. Use your calculator, you don’t need to be Mensa to figure this out.LMAO..... Ok, now, so if anyone shows or says anything, for example you say prices dropped from June to July, I showed you the MLS data showing NO IT DIDN'T in my core market, but, so now you call that "fake" prices, FAKE prices, lol. WTF is a FAKE price?
So far you've dictated equity is no longer equity, it's "Shadow" equity, fake in your eyes. Prices are now FAKE prices, if you don't like them. Interest rates, RATES are now somehow something of a problem if they are 3, not sure what trauma Sesame Street gave you but ok, you don't like the #3, I get it, we will leave that alone then.
Joe, come on man, really.......
Your loosing your sh#t here trying to convince everyone the sky is falling, it's all burning to the ground. I pumped out chart after chart PROVING it's NOT in a major market via live time numbers, and I even gave the full view going back as far as it would pull, 2012. Your response, was to say it was trash because it went back to 2012..... I mean, really, REALLY....
There is clearly only 1 and only 1 acceptable outcome for you and that's when we all bow at the alter of "Joe". You've earned my block.
Prices did in fact drop from July to august, already happened, peaked at 414k, in august it was 389k that’s a 6% drop in two months during a time prices are usually still going up and that’s with rates in the mid 5’s. With rates in the mid 6’s it would take over 40% of the average americans salary to afford housing, the average family with no other debt would be on the borderline of being even eligible for a mortgage on a median priced house.
PA/NJ/NT already passed 51 of median american salary. Not new either. People kept buying.
Prices are dropping but Cali, AZ, and some of those markets are driving it at median level.
- Member since 2022 · 3 posts · 1 vote4y
@Bruce Woodruff
What’s your telltale for when its a good time to buy? (I’m New) lol
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @Maridee Rodak:
@Bruce Woodruff
What’s your telltale for when its a good time to buy? (I’m New) lol
When most people (especially newbies) are scared and sitting on the sidelines.....
- Member since 2022 · 3 posts · 1 vote4y
That’s not helpful for a newbie lol, would you please share a helpful tip. Thanks.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes4y
Quote from @Maridee Rodak:
That’s not helpful for a newbie lol, would you please share a helpful tip. Thanks.
Here’s a simple tip. Buy when the federal reserve announces they are cutting rates. Prices in real estate will be low, and people will be afraid to buy. You’ll be buying with a high interest rate, but then wait 2 years and refinance at a much lower rate. You will have both a low purchase price, and a low rate at this point just by following the fed.
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @John Carbone:
Here’s a simple tip. Buy when the federal reserve announces they are cutting rates.You mean raising rates?
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @Maridee Rodak:
That’s not helpful for a newbie lol, would you please share a helpful tip. Thanks.
You do not want to be a small fish in a big pond. Most investors have no clue what they're doing and get their arses kicked eventually.
So be where they are not. Don't buy when everyone else is buying. There are always people with stupid money and no clue.
So wait until the scary times. Like now. Interest rates are up...recession is coming. Everyone is freaking out. Buyers market is coming. Do a lot of research and wait.
When prices hit the low, find a fixer and offer half of what they want. Do this to a dozen properties.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Here’s a simple tip. Buy when the federal reserve announces they are cutting rates.You mean raising rates?
No, the fed is already raising rates but the home prices aren’t moving much yet. This is very typical, because home prices lag the rate moves. by the time the fed decides to cut rates, the market will be down significantly and nobody will want to buy. Once the fed gives the green light saying they plan on cutting rates, there will be a small window to jump in and purchase before the herd comes back on the bandwagon to reinflate housing prices with low rates.
The fed is usually very obvious with what they are doing. When they give guidance of a rate cut 6 months out is when. You want to be able to front run the herd right before rates start to drop. Then do a refi in a year or two later.
- Member since 2022 · 3 posts · 1 vote4y
So we get in right when feds mentions it or when they do it (when it actually starts going down)?
Thank you, this is very very helpful!
- Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes4y
@John Carbone I think you just laid out my future strategy for me, thanks! I'm beginning to equate buying real estate with working around the actions of the Fed in the same way that I equate buying stocks with working around the actions of the mutual funds buying and selling them.
The Fed and mutual funds create the waves and I just try to surf them... if only I could actually surf. :(
- Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes4y
@Bruce Woodruff I'm not sure we're in 100% agreement on how bad this market will get, but you're right on with the "buy when people are scared" philosophy. Sadly, it looks like my next year of cash flow will be going towards renovating units, but if it wasn't, I'd be all over dollar-cost averaging into equities right now for that very reason.
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @Chris John:
@Bruce Woodruff I'm not sure we're in 100% agreement on how bad this market will get
We're probably close. I'm not in the CRASH group, but I think 20% is reasonable to expect though.
Once again we're all guessing. If it crashes I won't be shocked...if it does nothing more than it already has I won't be shocked either.....
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Maridee Rodak:
That’s not helpful for a newbie lol, would you please share a helpful tip. Thanks.
You do not want to be a small fish in a big pond. Most investors have no clue what they're doing and get their arses kicked eventually.
So be where they are not. Don't buy when everyone else is buying. There are always people with stupid money and no clue.
So wait until the scary times. Like now. Interest rates are up...recession is coming. Everyone is freaking out. Buyers market is coming. Do a lot of research and wait.
When prices hit the low, find a fixer and offer half of what they want. Do this to a dozen properties.
I would add, timing the bottom is a fast-pass to being a professional spectator. Because you only know it's the bottom, after it's gone, and all things are on the up-tick, because it's the only way to look back and go "ah-ha, there it is, that was the bottom". So, to buy at the bottom means getting in on a down-trend, with uncertainty if things are at the bottom or not.
Hence why timing the bottom is very literally luck.
So use metrics that matter, not timing a bottom. Just follow your numbers and what makes sense, ignore the rest.
Aside from that, I'd say find the opportunity, be different, not just a home buyer with a timing issue. Today is an amazing opportunity, for example to get terms purchases. Great environment for that.
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Hence why timing the bottom is very literally luck.
Yep, it is a lot of luck, combined with a little bit of 'oh, I've seen this before'. But a good investor will combine the metrics with a gut feeling and hope they hit it right. IMHO, just using numbers from the last correction/adjustment will not always work for the current conditions.....
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Chris John:
@Bruce Woodruff I'm not sure we're in 100% agreement on how bad this market will get
We're probably close. I'm not in the CRASH group, but I think 20% is reasonable to expect though.
Once again we're all guessing. If it crashes I won't be shocked...if it does nothing more than it already has I won't be shocked either.....
Ok, let's be honest, with everything that has happened the last few years, at this point, if Aliens Landed in Central Park after a swarm of flying pig's crossed the midwest, most of us would shrug our shoulders and say "huh, well look at that, neat" lol.
Remember the days when the craziest thing going on was a Prez getting a hummer by an intern and then all being shocked when he lied about it...... ah, those were the days, lol.
- 4yDan DiFilippoBusiness MemberReal Estate Broker · Fayetteville, NC · Member since 2020 · 251 posts · 244 votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
It's not. The "Shareholder Federal Reserve" is a lie; I think originating, at least in modern thought, from that trite book, Creature From Jekyl Island.Quote from @James Hamling:
Are you kidding me..... There's always gotta be one.......
FYI, I had a business partner who was part of an ownership group in banking. My wife is a CFO in financing, of a private bank. I know a thing or 2 on this topic. Feel free to believe the FED is an altruistic entity existing to serve you, a fantastic service of the friendly and helpful Federal Government. (Oh so much sarcasm) Ya know, those same awesome freedom loving public servants at the Federal Government who brought you smashing hit's like "30T national debt", or "don't worry about your social security retirement because it's gonna be bankrupt".
And it's JekylL island, THE Creature from JekylL Island. Not sure what's contrite about the formation of the Fed, for example in secret by persons only utilizing code names, which is all historical fact. But hey, I am sure they did it so we wouldn't build monuments to there greatness, there just "from the government, and here to help you".......
It's not though. You don't have to get all angry just because you were wrong. And you certainly don't have to nitpick spelling mistakes because you were wrong. And as long as we're doing that kind of thing to each other; "two", "hits", "their", and "they're", along with a few other grammatical corrections.
The fact is that the Federal Reserve is not a private bank. And the entire conspiracy theory that states that it operates wholly in the interest of the GSIB's is just wrong on its face. And it's a myth that's propagated by people who have no understanding of how it even functions, what it specifically does in order to try to implement its policy. Two books I would recommend to you are Fed Up by Danielle DiMartino Booth (who is a household name for anyone who follows finance at an intermediate level, and The Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed, which has a lot of language that's inaccessible to the more lay people, but still includes good central banking history.
But you'll definitely want to stop getting your finance/economics news from the "bro investor financial advisors". They almost never have any sort of certification. And even the ones who do are usually people who know strikingly little about economics/banking. They're specialization is in personal finance. And usually bad personal finance at that.
The fact is that the Fed is not some sort of evil institution. But worry not. You can still be critical of it. The truth about the Fed is that it's incompetent and actually has very little real impact on the money supply or interest rates. They aren't a technocratic institution. What they do is PR. They have the Volcker legacy and the Greenspan legacy, which are characterized by strength and savvy respectively. And they use those to try to effect the policy results they want. But they've even admitted in quiet ways over the last half century or so, that they don't actually know what money is, and even that they are ill-equipped to handle monetary policy effectively.
Seriously, discard everything you learned from TCFJI.Do I gotta put you back on block and ignore for trolling Dan? I thought you learned from last time.
I have no clue what your rambling about, "bro investor financial advisors", wtf even is this trash? Look, kid, I don't know what your deal is but please grow up. You go on and pander your BS on how fantastically altruistic the Fed and Fed Gov are, leave the adults alone ok. Someday your gonna grow up, and realize what an azz you made of yourself back when. As far as my Edu on the Fed, I got half from university when studying for MBA, that was just before I got bored with the social engineering BS of it all, and I switched too Engineering with a minor in Econ.. The other half was from a mentor, who was a Pres at the U.S. Mint. I will stick to real world, you have fun with those books.
Oh, I did have to show you what was what a couple years ago. I'd thought that was the case.
If you had a formal education on the Federal Reserve, why did you think it was a private bank? Why are you seemingly informed by a book that has been entirely dismissed as bunk?
If you want to have nuanced discussion with myself (or evidently, anybody else here). I welcome you to act like the adult you're so proud you think you are. You could learn a thing or two from me.
I got an idea, how about stop lying Dan, how about starting there.
And before, you were all gung-ho on BP, wildly arrogant in your ignorance, just like now, telling how 100% for sure housing was going to collapse because of covid and the moratoriums, how it was all gonna come tumbling down.... Remind me, how'd that work out?
Then as well you kept twisting things, going on and on how right you are, 100% right 100% of the time because you "Dan".
I shared "A" book, a good one for the uniformed to get a good baseline 411 on the Fed. As for the Fed being private, well that's only according to the Fed itself so, without doubt your right, because your "Dan", so someone better get that memo to them lickety-split.
In FULL accuracy, the Fed operates neither as a governmental branch nor a private entity, they are something unique unto itself. We could get deep into the compilation mix of public and private operational factors of the Fed, only take 20/30hrs or so. In simplest terms, it is a private bank, that most correctly conveys what and how they "are" to the average person VS the name, Federal Reserve, which conveys a very incorrect image that many assume. Most assume it is a governmental branch like the FBI, they are far from such a structure of operation.
The Fed operates at it's own direction with influence from the Executive branch and Congress. Keyword "influence". There is numerous cases where the Fed has acted with impunity, completely disregarding congress.
The Fed almost never act's with the best of the "average" citizen at focus, all one has to do is look at their track record for such. The Fed has it's own agenda, there actions speak to this. Repeatedly.
If Fed was "for the people" where was rate increase in 2020? 2021? When markets were white-hot, where was rate increase to cool to a stabilized level? Where was the Fed in explaining what kicking out trillions into the system would do?Jeez, dude, if you're obsessed with me just say that. Yeah, housing was due for a "wall of foreclosures" as it was being referred to. It was supposed to hit way back in 2020. They've kicked that can very far down the road.
The Fed is simple to explain. It doesn't take 20/30 hours. It's an institution that was organized by the federal government and chartered to serve a dual mandate of price stability and unemployment. It is politically independent of the federal government except in that its leadership is appointed by the president.And in 2020 and 2021 the Fed was still working to satisfy its unemployment mandate. It was doing what Paul Krugman says about "credibly promising to be irresponsible". Keep in mind, they tried to get their desired policy effect by saying they would keep rates low through 2023. They were doing what they thought the markets required in order to have continued confidence. And before you cite the equity market (or as you call it "the stock market") for confidence, no. Money wasn't shifting toward the equity market for confidence. It wasn't even shifting toward the equity market because of "muh inflation". Virtually nobody has been confident on the US consumer. We can see that because we can see that economic activity has been very slow. Independently of COVID and before any talk of rate hikes.
I doubt you even know what happens when the Federal Reserve "prints money". - 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Nothing suspect there, eh?
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votesDude, yer killin' me....! The current guy in the Casa Blanco thinks a hummer is what he gets driven around in....🤣
Quote from @James Hamling:
Remember the days when the craziest thing going on was a Prez getting a hummer by an intern and then all being shocked when he lied about it...... ah, those were the days, lol.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
....housing was due for a "wall of foreclosures"... It was supposed to hit way back in 2020.
The Fed.... is politically independent of the federal government.... its leadership is appointed by the president.
....in 2020 and 2021 the Fed was still working to satisfy its unemployment mandate.
....Federal Reserve "prints money".Uuughhh....... By chance have you ever seen "Silence Of The Lambs"? Some time ago, probably a bit before your time, I'm betting you were still in diapers at the time but, just curious. Ya know the whole "it put's the lotion on the skin", all that jazz with "Buffalo Bill". Each time you get going with these narcissistic rants of complete nonsense, rambling in the most arrogant way I have ever seen such ignorance, all that flashes in mind is that damn "Buffalo Bill" dancing with himself and just loving every second of himself, lol, seriously. And something back of my mind screams "Ehww David!" lol.
Look, I thought I'd keep this simple and just put together your recent highlight reel above. Dan, why? What's the deal? Is it an attention thing?
No, the Federal Reserve does not print money. The U.S. Mint prints all currency, always has. Hence the name.
The Fed and political influence.... do I really have to point out the blaringly obvious? It was less then 2 seconds when you contradicted yourself. A tid-bit of history on the Fed, the U.S. has not always had a Fed. And we had it before and killed it, gleefully. We have had Presidents speak of the evil influence and power of it, and the need to NEVER have one.
What boggles the mind is you admit, you were on here going all kinds of bonkers how 100% the entire R.E. market is going to completely meltdown, a wave of foreclosures, and as we all know NONE of any of what you said happened, here on Earth we call that WRONG, lol, but no, you say IT'S THE MARKETS FAULT! LMAO! Whaaaaaa, the markets fault! No kidding, lmao! I give your credit for balls, giant brass ones or just brick-dumb, lol, either or one heck of a laugh. There never was a "wave of foreclosures coming", not then, not now, doesn't exist. I told you then, I am telling you AGAIN! Remember what I did say then? I predicted all of this, didn't I! yup. That the market would continue to run red hot, until after all covid finally got old hat, everyone got past it, and chickens would come home to roost on the crazy spending spree by gov., inflation would kick in, and Stagflation would come to hit. Or was that the market betraying you again?
Did you happen to spend any time in the U.S. during '20'/'21'? Do you recall the insane $ getting handed out to everyone on unemployment? The program after program? Now your saying the Fed was what, some kind of spearhead of it all in 20/21? Thats so BS! Just flat out BS. So, while consumer spending was going through the roof your thinking the Fed really needed to take action to MAKE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING?! Make it make sense, just 1 ounce of sense please.
You clearly got some attention issues, have some stalker complex for me, so you earned you seat back on the block-bench. This time will be much harder to get off then before. Good luck.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes4y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
....housing was due for a "wall of foreclosures"... It was supposed to hit way back in 2020.
The Fed.... is politically independent of the federal government.... its leadership is appointed by the president.
....in 2020 and 2021 the Fed was still working to satisfy its unemployment mandate.
....Federal Reserve "prints money".Uuughhh....... By chance have you ever seen "Silence Of The Lambs"? Some time ago, probably a bit before your time, I'm betting you were still in diapers at the time but, just curious. Ya know the whole "it put's the lotion on the skin", all that jazz with "Buffalo Bill". Each time you get going with these narcissistic rants of complete nonsense, rambling in the most arrogant way I have ever seen such ignorance, all that flashes in mind is that damn "Buffalo Bill" dancing with himself and just loving every second of himself, lol, seriously. And something back of my mind screams "Ehww David!" lol.
Look, I thought I'd keep this simple and just put together your recent highlight reel above. Dan, why? What's the deal? Is it an attention thing?
No, the Federal Reserve does not print money. The U.S. Mint prints all currency, always has. Hence the name.
The Fed and political influence.... do I really have to point out the blaringly obvious? It was less then 2 seconds when you contradicted yourself. A tid-bit of history on the Fed, the U.S. has not always had a Fed. And we had it before and killed it, gleefully. We have had Presidents speak of the evil influence and power of it, and the need to NEVER have one.
What boggles the mind is you admit, you were on here going all kinds of bonkers how 100% the entire R.E. market is going to completely meltdown, a wave of foreclosures, and as we all know NONE of any of what you said happened, here on Earth we call that WRONG, lol, but no, you say IT'S THE MARKETS FAULT! LMAO! Whaaaaaa, the markets fault! No kidding, lmao! I give your credit for balls, giant brass ones or just brick-dumb, lol, either or one heck of a laugh. There never was a "wave of foreclosures coming", not then, not now, doesn't exist. I told you then, I am telling you AGAIN! Remember what I did say then? I predicted all of this, didn't I! yup. That the market would continue to run red hot, until after all covid finally got old hat, everyone got past it, and chickens would come home to roost on the crazy spending spree by gov., inflation would kick in, and Stagflation would come to hit. Or was that the market betraying you again?
Did you happen to spend any time in the U.S. during '20'/'21'? Do you recall the insane $ getting handed out to everyone on unemployment? The program after program? Now your saying the Fed was what, some kind of spearhead of it all in 20/21? Thats so BS! Just flat out BS. So, while consumer spending was going through the roof your thinking the Fed really needed to take action to MAKE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING?! Make it make sense, just 1 ounce of sense please.
You clearly got some attention issues, have some stalker complex for me, so you earned you seat back on the block-bench. This time will be much harder to get off then before. Good luck.
20 percent drop in national median home values from peak. Lock
- 4yDan DiFilippoBusiness MemberReal Estate Broker · Fayetteville, NC · Member since 2020 · 251 posts · 244 votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
....housing was due for a "wall of foreclosures"... It was supposed to hit way back in 2020.
The Fed.... is politically independent of the federal government.... its leadership is appointed by the president.
....in 2020 and 2021 the Fed was still working to satisfy its unemployment mandate.
....Federal Reserve "prints money".Uuughhh....... By chance have you ever seen "Silence Of The Lambs"? Some time ago, probably a bit before your time, I'm betting you were still in diapers at the time but, just curious. Ya know the whole "it put's the lotion on the skin", all that jazz with "Buffalo Bill". Each time you get going with these narcissistic rants of complete nonsense, rambling in the most arrogant way I have ever seen such ignorance, all that flashes in mind is that damn "Buffalo Bill" dancing with himself and just loving every second of himself, lol, seriously. And something back of my mind screams "Ehww David!" lol.
Look, I thought I'd keep this simple and just put together your recent highlight reel above. Dan, why? What's the deal? Is it an attention thing?
No, the Federal Reserve does not print money. The U.S. Mint prints all currency, always has. Hence the name.
The Fed and political influence.... do I really have to point out the blaringly obvious? It was less then 2 seconds when you contradicted yourself. A tid-bit of history on the Fed, the U.S. has not always had a Fed. And we had it before and killed it, gleefully. We have had Presidents speak of the evil influence and power of it, and the need to NEVER have one.
What boggles the mind is you admit, you were on here going all kinds of bonkers how 100% the entire R.E. market is going to completely meltdown, a wave of foreclosures, and as we all know NONE of any of what you said happened, here on Earth we call that WRONG, lol, but no, you say IT'S THE MARKETS FAULT! LMAO! Whaaaaaa, the markets fault! No kidding, lmao! I give your credit for balls, giant brass ones or just brick-dumb, lol, either or one heck of a laugh. There never was a "wave of foreclosures coming", not then, not now, doesn't exist. I told you then, I am telling you AGAIN! Remember what I did say then? I predicted all of this, didn't I! yup. That the market would continue to run red hot, until after all covid finally got old hat, everyone got past it, and chickens would come home to roost on the crazy spending spree by gov., inflation would kick in, and Stagflation would come to hit. Or was that the market betraying you again?
Did you happen to spend any time in the U.S. during '20'/'21'? Do you recall the insane $ getting handed out to everyone on unemployment? The program after program? Now your saying the Fed was what, some kind of spearhead of it all in 20/21? Thats so BS! Just flat out BS. So, while consumer spending was going through the roof your thinking the Fed really needed to take action to MAKE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING?! Make it make sense, just 1 ounce of sense please.
You clearly got some attention issues, have some stalker complex for me, so you earned you seat back on the block-bench. This time will be much harder to get off then before. Good luck.
@FBI, this guy has some strange fixation on me and when I was a kid and...strange.....pseudo sexual stuff. I don't know. It seems weird.
Now onto everything you're wrong about.
And it's oh so much.
Oh, but before I do that, I should mention. I'm starting to actually suspect (like 20% sure) that English isn't your first language, so I'd like to, on that possible basis, rescind my insults to your grammar and spelling. I don't have fluency in any foreign language myself, and I know they can be difficult to learn, so I don't mean to give you a hard time on that basis.
I mean, starting, my question isn't about literally printing money. It was probably me who taught you that the Federal Reserve doesn't literally print physical notes. But I said "prints money" in the colloquial manner in which people refer to it. Do you even know what that process is? Do you know what the Fed does to "add money" to the economy? I guarantee you that you don't know. And that you don't even know how banks function.
And in terms of the Fed having existed prior to its current iteration, no. You're referring to the national bank. If you understood banks, you would know that the national bank was not a central bank. It was a a supporting apparatus of fiscal policy. It was not involved in money or monetary policy (that will sound strange to you, but we who understand what we're talking about would actually say that it "was not involved in money"). In terms of presidents, not really. Again, you're referring to the controversial national bank.
Regarding foreclosures. I don't see where I said it was "the market's fault". It's explicitly not. It's the fault of literally non-economic (that means non-market) actors.
Moving forward, there's a lot here that is simply unfounded. When it comes to inflation, a lot of lay people get overly-fixated on policy. When people are losing their work, they're losing their income. So the government replacing that income maintains the monetary plane. That isn't really inflationary. And, it should be clear. More money was lost as a result of employment disruptions than was handed out by the government. Also, the money as distributed by the government was really more a wealth effect than an income effect. Being you don't know what these mean, they are propensity to spend more commensurate with increases in their respective elements. The research bears out that income effects are substantially stronger than wealth effects.
Beyond all of this, and this is something that I don't expect you to understand, money was largely actually destroyed throughout COVID. The "inflation" that consumers are experiencing is much more to due with disruptions to supply chains that aren't resilient to disruption (just in time as opposed to just in case). And this is even more clear when we look at the difference in CPI components. Services CPI actually fell off a cliff when COVID came, as opposed to goods CPI which went through the roof as people took their spending to Amazon. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Dan DiFilippo:
....housing was due for a "wall of foreclosures"... It was supposed to hit way back in 2020.
The Fed.... is politically independent of the federal government.... its leadership is appointed by the president.
....in 2020 and 2021 the Fed was still working to satisfy its unemployment mandate.
....Federal Reserve "prints money".Uuughhh....... By chance have you ever seen "Silence Of The Lambs"? Some time ago, probably a bit before your time, I'm betting you were still in diapers at the time but, just curious. Ya know the whole "it put's the lotion on the skin", all that jazz with "Buffalo Bill". Each time you get going with these narcissistic rants of complete nonsense, rambling in the most arrogant way I have ever seen such ignorance, all that flashes in mind is that damn "Buffalo Bill" dancing with himself and just loving every second of himself, lol, seriously. And something back of my mind screams "Ehww David!" lol.
Look, I thought I'd keep this simple and just put together your recent highlight reel above. Dan, why? What's the deal? Is it an attention thing?
No, the Federal Reserve does not print money. The U.S. Mint prints all currency, always has. Hence the name.
The Fed and political influence.... do I really have to point out the blaringly obvious? It was less then 2 seconds when you contradicted yourself. A tid-bit of history on the Fed, the U.S. has not always had a Fed. And we had it before and killed it, gleefully. We have had Presidents speak of the evil influence and power of it, and the need to NEVER have one.
What boggles the mind is you admit, you were on here going all kinds of bonkers how 100% the entire R.E. market is going to completely meltdown, a wave of foreclosures, and as we all know NONE of any of what you said happened, here on Earth we call that WRONG, lol, but no, you say IT'S THE MARKETS FAULT! LMAO! Whaaaaaa, the markets fault! No kidding, lmao! I give your credit for balls, giant brass ones or just brick-dumb, lol, either or one heck of a laugh. There never was a "wave of foreclosures coming", not then, not now, doesn't exist. I told you then, I am telling you AGAIN! Remember what I did say then? I predicted all of this, didn't I! yup. That the market would continue to run red hot, until after all covid finally got old hat, everyone got past it, and chickens would come home to roost on the crazy spending spree by gov., inflation would kick in, and Stagflation would come to hit. Or was that the market betraying you again?
Did you happen to spend any time in the U.S. during '20'/'21'? Do you recall the insane $ getting handed out to everyone on unemployment? The program after program? Now your saying the Fed was what, some kind of spearhead of it all in 20/21? Thats so BS! Just flat out BS. So, while consumer spending was going through the roof your thinking the Fed really needed to take action to MAKE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING?! Make it make sense, just 1 ounce of sense please.
You clearly got some attention issues, have some stalker complex for me, so you earned you seat back on the block-bench. This time will be much harder to get off then before. Good luck.
@FBI, this guy has some strange fixation on me and when I was a kid and...strange.....pseudo sexual stuff. I don't know. It seems weird.
Now onto everything you're wrong about.
And it's oh so much.
Oh, but before I do that, I should mention. I'm starting to actually suspect (like 20% sure) that English isn't your first language, so I'd like to, on that possible basis, rescind my insults to your grammar and spelling. I don't have fluency in any foreign language myself, and I know they can be difficult to learn, so I don't mean to give you a hard time on that basis.
I mean, starting, my question isn't about literally printing money. It was probably me who taught you that the Federal Reserve doesn't literally print physical notes. But I said "prints money" in the colloquial manner in which people refer to it. Do you even know what that process is? Do you know what the Fed does to "add money" to the economy? I guarantee you that you don't know. And that you don't even know how banks function.
And in terms of the Fed having existed prior to its current iteration, no. You're referring to the national bank. If you understood banks, you would know that the national bank was not a central bank. It was a a supporting apparatus of fiscal policy. It was not involved in money or monetary policy (that will sound strange to you, but we who understand what we're talking about would actually say that it "was not involved in money"). In terms of presidents, not really. Again, you're referring to the controversial national bank.
Regarding foreclosures. I don't see where I said it was "the market's fault". It's explicitly not. It's the fault of literally non-economic (that means non-market) actors.
Moving forward, there's a lot here that is simply unfounded. When it comes to inflation, a lot of lay people get overly-fixated on policy. When people are losing their work, they're losing their income. So the government replacing that income maintains the monetary plane. That isn't really inflationary. And, it should be clear. More money was lost as a result of employment disruptions than was handed out by the government. Also, the money as distributed by the government was really more a wealth effect than an income effect. Being you don't know what these mean, they are propensity to spend more commensurate with increases in their respective elements. The research bears out that income effects are substantially stronger than wealth effects.
Beyond all of this, and this is something that I don't expect you to understand, money was largely actually destroyed throughout COVID. The "inflation" that consumers are experiencing is much more to due with disruptions to supply chains that aren't resilient to disruption (just in time as opposed to just in case). And this is even more clear when we look at the difference in CPI components. Services CPI actually fell off a cliff when COVID came, as opposed to goods CPI which went through the roof as people took their spending to Amazon.Your flat out nuts! And clearly a stalker with extreme issues, EXTREME. I am not replying to you anymore on anything, ever. Your blocked and banned on my account.
Same with the stock market, everything is overvalued. I'm probably the only one here that thinks raising interest is a good thing.
It will be good if you're a cash buyer. Back to Normalcy if you're buying on a contract/mortgage. Zero Fed interest of the past (6 years?) only gamed the system to raise house values and make everyone feel rich. Mortgages should be in the 5 - 8 percent range. As well all know houses only sell at what the buyer can afford. It's relative. Raise interest, raises the payment, which means asking price MUST come down. It will be a good time to buy all cash.
Interest was working its way up at the end of Obama, but for some reason Trump admin did a heavy push to bring back to 0. I certainly can't read the future, I don't know crap, but I believe we're in for more pain than we think. Maybe we'll see 20 percent again like 1982, or whenever the heck that was.
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