Realtor · Panama City Beach, FL · Member since 2018 · 122 posts · 63 votes
Hello BP community! I am trying to gain more knowledge and experience with understanding and predicting the real estate market. More specifically, how National and global issues affect the housing market positively and negatively. I’m sure everyone here knows about the trade tensions with China and other countries. How do you think that these trade changes will affect the housing market? Is it a safe assumption to think that the new tariffs on goods will cause the general cost of living to rise, ultimately resulting in a snowball effect that will lead to a bear market? I’m positive there are people here who know much more about the entire situation than I do, I just want to get a discussion started to see what you guys are thinking. Thanks!
-Cody Smith
Rental Property Investor · Florida & Shanghai · Member since 2017 · 192 posts · 68 votes
8y
With very limited knowledge on the macroeconomics of such a question, I can't see any direct effect on real estate at the moment. Other than the general assumption that if the trade war spirals into chaos the economies overall would will an effect, possibly triggering an economic downturn.
Realtor · Panama City Beach, FL · Member since 2018 · 122 posts · 63 votes
8y
@Troy Williams I figured it was too early in the whole process to really see any effect. I guess we would be looking at a pretty significant chain of events to really see a large change in the market!
Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
8y
Every week I see something like this. People looking for reasons the national housing market is going to tank. Yet every week I see articles saying the national housing demand is still very high.
Barring WW3 it’s not crashing anytime soon (within 12 months )
Realtor · Panama City Beach, FL · Member since 2018 · 122 posts · 63 votes
8y
@Caleb Heimsoth I definitely see what you are saying. I know it’s far fetched to assume that anything would happen in the near future. It would definitely be a long term endeavor. Do you personally see anything going on in the world that could eventually result in a bear market? Continually rising student debt perhaps? Thanks!
Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
8y
@Cody Smith I see a bear market in the middle of 2020. I don’t think it’ll be as bad as most people think. It’ll be a contraction but it won’t be a bust.
There are many things that could cause this, too many to speculate
Guy with Great Hair · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 4k+ votes
8y
The tariffs that have been added so far pale in comparison to overall GDP. It will effect certain sectors, certainly, but the impact has yet to be seen and we don't know how this thing will turn out.
My gut says that if things start to go poorly, a fix will be implemented quickly.
Also, it would seem that if tariffs made building new houses more expensive, used house values might start to become more appealing, and thus more valuable. Though admittedly this is a very simple and rudimentary analysis.
TLDR: I think this is a non-issue at it's current state. It's a political tool, and no one wants to turn it into a political liability.