Most real estate deals don’t fail because of comps

Most real estate deals don’t fail because of comps

Real Estate Consultant · Member since 2025 · 133 posts · 85 votes

Most bad real estate deals don’t fail because of comps.

They fail because investors underestimate execution risk.

On paper:
- the ARV works
- the spread looks attractive
- the neighborhood seems strong

But then:
- permits take longer
- insurance changes the numbers
- slope/foundation issues appear
- rehab budgets expand
- layout limitations reduce upside
- liquidity weakens during exit

A lot of investment tools focus heavily on pricing data and comparable sales.

But the more we study real-world projects, the more it seems that the real challenge is understanding the relationship between:

acquisition price  
market positioning  
renovation complexity  
timeline risk  
and actual execution feasibility.

Especially in value-add and redevelopment scenarios.

Curious how experienced investors here evaluate this side of deals today.

What part of underwriting do you think is still the hardest to model accurately?

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  • Andrew GlissonBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Memphis · Member since 2026 · 135 posts · 97 votes
    5mo

    Extensive diligence before you buy... then hope and pray. 

    LPS Short and Long Term Property Management
  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 889 votes
    4mo

    For me, it's usually renovation costs and timeline.

    A lot of deals still look good until the rehab takes longer, costs more, or uncovers issues nobody anticipated. That's where I've seen projections start to break down pretty quickly. The numbers are important, but execution is often what determines whether a deal actually performs the way it was underwritten.

  • Pouyan BroukhimBusiness Member
    Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 64 posts · 19 votes
    4mo

    The majority of project failures stem from an absence of sufficient experience and inadequate due diligence.

    PB FInancial group corp
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