How to think about cash flow & appreciation

How to think about cash flow & appreciation

Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 17 votes

I'm hoping to get some perspective from people here on an experience I'm having in current markets. I would like to put some money into a property that can bring in some cash flow, or at least break even, and I want to do this in a market likely to have decent appreciation. The local markets that make sense for me are all coastal and have super high price-to-rent ratios so cash flow is very hard to achieve. I just never see any deals when I am sent properties. I've got a realtor that, however, is suggesting that I rely on cash flow going positive due to rent increases. This doesn't feel right to me. Rent feels sticky. Increasing it seems harder since it's a social decision that can affect tenants etc, and I've got an ethical system that will lead me to be reasonable about rent increases. 

So...my questions are:

1) Is there any legitimate reason that a realtor might be suggesting to me that I can rely on cash flow going positive due to an increase in rental income even in, say, a market like Seattle? When I use the rental property calculator on this site, I just don't see that happening with its default setting of 2% income growth;

2) What expectations can one set about income growth via rent increases in this environment. I've read a number of sources (including https://www.cbre.com/insights/...) that forecast rent increases in many types of markets (downtown areas, suburbs), but what might that translate into in terms of reasonable assumptions for % increase? 

The reason I'm asking these questions is that I'd much rather invest in a market that is in an area that I know and that I am likely to be. I can go the whole out-of-state route but it is, as many have acknowledged, just more uncomfortable. So if there is in fact some way to invest reasonably in a high octane market without being some super cash-flush investor, then that'd be great. I guess this comes down to: is there a way to balance the difficult cash flow situation in coastal markets against their attractive appreciation?

Any help with these questions would be greatly appreciated!  

5Reply
74 views

Most Popular Reply

Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
4y

I used to think cashflow was everything when I was buying turnkey rentals in 2013.

Today I see cashflow as oxygen... it keeps you alive during tough times. But legacy wealth is not created by cashflow but forced appreciation.

See this reply in the discussion

39 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 17 votes
    4y

    Just noticed this article on 2021 sums up an answer in this way: "To me, a good deal in 2021 means modest cash flow and strong equity growth." (https://www.biggerpockets.com/..)


    Maybe for 2022 it is: "modest negative cash flow and strong equity growth"?

  • Joshua JanusBusiness Member
    Realtor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    1) I would not purchase a property that doesn't cash flow from day one unless it is a complete rehab and the current tenants are truly paying way under market. It is not an easy task to simply raise the rents with the current tenants and some realtors make it seem like an easy task. This also goes with making an appreciation bet, and only purchasing a property with the intention that your return on investment will come from appreciation. That should be part of the equation, but not the whole point. 

    2) A general rule is that rents take about 6-9 months to catch up to the current property values. In my market of Columbus, Ohio, the properties have appreciated so much and will continue to do so, so the rent rates will be running from behind for a while. 

  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4y

    @Ethan M.

    My opinion is contrary to the general feeling on BP, but I think rent growth is under-appreciated in these forums while day 1 cash flow is over sold. 

    The fact of the matter is that rent growth and appreciation are highly correlated, which makes sense from a supply and demand perspective. I looked at some data BP put out a while ago and actually having a high degree of day 1 cash flow was a predicator of low/negative total return for SFRs. 

    Looking at BLS Rent growth for the past 20 years, shows that its averaged out to about 5% over the US. Now that's only so useful since RE is local, local, local and past performace isn't a guarantee of future results, but it is a starting point. 

    At the end of the day it depends on what your goals and objectives are for RE investing, but long term wealth generation comes from appreciation and amortization. Given those facts you have to look carefully at the assumptions that underpin the rental growth assumptions.  

  • Morris County, NJ · Member since 2020 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    @Ethan M.

    Yeah, there seems to be this "big thing" about cash flow...  You know the age-old adage is buy a property with financing and make sure the rent at least covers your expenses, right?  You know about leverage, and how its good for real estate --- probably the only area where leverage/debt is good?

    There was a good thread on this on BP, but I can't find it right now.  

    Let me put it to you this way.  Lets say you have a $1mil property that zero cash flow (basically true example of some poster in the Bay area that BP kinda laughed off).  Aside from capital replacements, after 30years you have a property free and clear, and you didn't pay for that equity.  Your tenant(s) did!!  i wonder how other investors you read here buying $100k properties are going to make.  Do some math...  their cash flow would have to be enormous even if that had ten properties of $100k.  Also, in 30 yrs, their properties will still probably be worth $100k...  Not to mention they'd ahve 10 kitchens, 10+ bathrooms, 10 hvac system, 10 roofs, etc. to address.

    I do agree that rent growth is also under appreciated.  Just as real property appreciates, so does rent.  Yes, recenlty its gone sky high.  If you choose a good area, your expenses actually grow less than the rent.  That's what happened to me.  As for upping the rents on the tenants, that can be tough.  Lets face it, no renter is really ready for periodic/constant rent increases.  But then again, tenants don't always stay that long.  That being said, don't forget the "age-old" adage I started with...

    With lots of younger investors starting out, they look around and ask what the "grey beards" are doing.  These grey beards are very helpful and say they have rental properties with high cash flows...  These young investors thank them and move one.  In meetings (before covid) and a few on BP, I've continued to ask these grey beards:  but what did you do when you started out?  They, too, held properties for leverage and appreciation with little cash flow.  The cash flow properties (actually usual rental apartments and not a bunch of single family homes) is necessary because they are retired now, and this is their pension plan.  ahh!!!

    Like with any investment, the strategy has to meet your goals and needs.  I'd be happy to chat if you'd like.  I hope this helps.  Good luck.

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 17 votes
    4y

    Thank you all for the helpful discussion. I'm finding this counter perspective to the cash flow approach useful given my needs. It makes sense to me that appreciation on leveraged assets is a powerful combination over time, even if cash flow isn't great. I wonder is there some sort of formulaic guideline that one could use to gauge what is a reasonable amount of negative cash flow for a given property. Maybe something that captures its relationship to potential or expected appreciation? Does such a measure exist?

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2018 · 826 posts · 810 votes
    4y

    @Ethan Miller cash flow is a good metric, but those who only know how to calculate CF are usually less sophisticated investors. The end goal is compounded annual returns (ie IRR), and that is a metric, though imperfect, that can compare different strategies.

    In high cost markets you will more often rely on rent growth to eventually cash flow if you are not doing value-add. Think about it this way, if expenses grow 3% while rent grows 3%, you will have increasing NOI over time since expenses are a fraction of gross rent (say 30-50%).

    Inflation is real, so you’ll need to account for it regardless what business you are in. Increasing rent is not a binary question of ethics.

  • Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes
    4y

    @Ethan M.

    I have no evidence to support my opinion and don't really want to go down the rabbit hole of trying to find any, but here's how I've always seen it.  All things being equal and assuming "good" properties that don't have gigantic underlying problems, have "normal" tenants, "normal" upkeep, weren't purchased as "home runs" that are almost impossible for you to duplicate again, etc. I see it as a simple risk vs. return tradeoff.

    Lower (or negative) cash flow probably means more leverage and/or a hotter market and most likely a higher final IRR.

    Higher cash flow probably means less leverage and/or a more stable market and most likely a lower final IRR.

    If you can survive the tough times with the low/negative cash flow properties, you'll probably make more in the end.  The problem is that some expose themselves too much and can't hold on during the occasional downturn. 

    I know my personal risk tolerance and financial limitations (high school teacher for most of my adult career), so I insist on enough cash flow to grease the wheels in case of tough times.  However, I have definitely made a lot more money through appreciation and debt retirement than cash flow.  The way I run my numbers is right for me, but different than my friend/mentor's.  But the way he runs his numbers is right for him. 

    IMO, you just kind of have to know what you can weather financially if times go bad, what your risk tolerance is, what your time is worth in terms of the time suck that is real estate investing vs. other investments, etc.

    Good luck and best wishes!

  • Morris County, NJ · Member since 2020 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    @Ethan M.

    Well, sure you could come up with a formula..  But, how detailed/complicated would you want it to be?  Just compare the amount of cashflow lost to the expected appreciation?  Or think of it as how much additional investment you need to make...  It could go on depending on your point view, and i'm someone will inject accounting principals...

  • Real Estate Agent · Fort Walton Beach, FL · Member since 2018 · 219 posts · 275 votes
    4y

    @Ethan M. Uhm....I wouldn't buy anything you're not sure you want to buy for what it is today. We don't know for sure about tomorrow. If someone could predict with certainty how rents will go 100%, that person would be very rich by now :-). Also, I want their number, lol.

    Prices are high now and cashflow is hard to spot immediately. What I'm seeing out in the market is investors confusing "rental history" with "rental potential". I work with STRs. So... lets say you have a property that has rental history of $30K for last year and is now listed for sale. An investor comes in, looks at the prices, crunches some numbers, plugs in the $30K rental history and declares lack of cash flow :-). Perhaps he or she is correct. But... what I would suggest is doing some research on similar properties that are NOT for sale and are successful/popular STRs and seeing what they are currently bringing in annual rent. Maybe they are doing $50K or more, which does create cash flow. That's probably why they are not being listed for sale. Maybe the one with the $30K rental history had a bad manager, or brown carpet in the bathroom, or a cockroach colony, lol. Maybe fixing those items would immediately provide higher rental potential (not in five years). On the other had, it the guy whose property is doing $50K decided to sell how, he/she would build in "price premium" for the fact their property is doing so much rent, which would actually diminish the cash flow potential for the next buyer. That's just a very wordy way to say that underappreciated properties do not show cashflow but can. 

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    4y

    Some thoughts

    • Initial cash flow has poor correlation with actual long term cash flow and this is no a coincidence.  The RE market is efficient.  The properties with the highest initial cash flow are those with expected lower appreciation (property and rent) and/or higher risk.  

    • in my primary markets rents have increased over 21% YOY (source ApartmentLists.com). This average rent increase changes the cash flow situation quickly.  

      I would have zero issues purchasing a property that projected negative cash flow.  Cash flow is just one source of RE profit and one of the least beneficial if it is not needed to pay the bills.  Why is it one of the least beneficial?   It is because cash flow is taxed.  Other forms of RE return can be deferred and potentially avoided (readjusted at death). Cash flow also pales in return compared to high appreciation returns.  In high cash flow markets, the appreciation exceeds the full rent. I have a property that appreciation has been $16k/month (rents are far less than $16k).  I have another property that has appreciated over $7k/month over a long hold.  The rents are now past $7k/month, but they have not averaged over $7k for the hold period (so appreciation since purchase is greater than rent collected since purchase). 

    • the best returns are value adds.  If I have $0 invested, my return is infinite.  I only have one property that has any of our money invested in it. 

    Good luck

  • Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    I used to think cashflow was everything when I was buying turnkey rentals in 2013.

    Today I see cashflow as oxygen... it keeps you alive during tough times. But legacy wealth is not created by cashflow but forced appreciation.

  • Investor · Marin County California · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    Listen to @Lane Kawaoka.  

    Two additional points:

    Also, do not confuse appreciation with simple inflation.  True appreciation (i.e. a rate of growth that exceeds the rate of inflation) comes from an asset's increased value from substantial property improvements over time, the increased desirability of its location and/or other demographic factors.  

    All investment is about predicting an uncertain future.  No one has a magical crystal ball.  However, anticipating future appreciation is not really any more difficult or "speculative" than anticipating future cash flows - a property that cash flows on Day 1 can turn into dog sh*t in year 2 or 3 or 4.    

  • Marc RiceBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus Cleveland Dayton, OH · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Every market is different, the coastal/west markets are very pricey and are challenging to cash flow in general. The Midwest offers many properties that will cash flow from day 1. It's all relative and market by market basis on what the norms are.

    Buying stocks don't cash flow, but people do that anyways and rely on appreciation to make a profit, and you don't have tenants paying your principal down in the stock market...so it really boils down to what your financial goals are and your opportunities available in the marketplace.

    I personally live in the Midwest and have access to properties that cash flow and appreciate, so I will buy those vs A class properties that won't cash flow until 5+ years of rent growth.
    Marc Rice | Investor Friendly Agent at Reafco Tailwind Team574 Reviews
  • Property Manager · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2014 · 729 posts · 596 votes
    4y

    @Ethan Miller

    I do not buy properties that do it cash flow immediately. However, none of my properties were 2%. They were more in the .8 to 1%.

    Appreciation is the icing on the cake. I do it invest expecting appreciation as there are so many unforseen variables, like a pandemic. However, I buy properties that are in good neighborhoods and should appreciate over time. Luckily, they all have exploded in value because I never would have expected huge gains during global pandemic.

  • Rental Property Investor · Yorkville, IL · Member since 2016 · 1 post · 0 votes
    4y

    I’m looking to purchase my first rental property in the Chicago Suburbs. When you are looking at purchasing an investment property, what are the biggest things you look for in that property.

  • Kevin McGuirePro Member
    CTO of BiggerPockets · Seattle, WA · Member since 2019 · 178 posts · 178 votes
    4y

    My views on cashflow versus appreciation have changed over the years. I now see leveraged appreciation as where the real money is, with cash flow being the mechanism that allows you to hold onto the property. 

    I personally would not bank on future rent increases turning a negative cash flow to positive because it relies on a set of variables I can’t control. Negative cash flow properties increase risk. The risk is that you’re constantly having to transfer your personal income to support the property, all the while being unable to build reserves for repairs and vacancy. That puts your personal finance at risk. You’d effectively need to know how much you need to fund your property until it cash flows and set aside that amount, adding it to the effective purchase price (because it’s money you needed to transfer to the business). My model is that the business needs to sustain itself because I don’t want it to increase my personal risk. 

    I have a different view than a previous poster, and that’s that rents and property values are only loosely correlated. On the demand side, ability to pay rent is a function of a renter’s income, while as home prices are a function of interest rate and income (people buy the most expensive house for which they can afford the mortgage payments). I personally don’t want to build a business model that only works if rents increase faster than costs because I can’t predict macro economic factors that contribute to ability to pay rent.

  • Realtor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2009 · 107 posts · 69 votes
    4y

    @Joshua Janus Thanks for the info about Columbus, venturing more into CRE and looking to check out various markets to get further insight.

  • Rental Property Investor · Escondido, CA · Member since 2017 · 684 posts · 550 votes
    4y

    @Ethan M. I agree with a lot of what has been posted here and also agree that I would not buy properties that don't at least break even or have a little positive cash flow.

    There is a balance between property quality and cash flow, where quality drives the purchase price. It's not just the building but all the additional aspects of crime, migration, economic strength, schools, etc.

    If you follow the foundation of "minimum break-even" as a starting point the strategy comes down to what your goals are.

    I and most of my mentoring clients aim for a certain monthly passive income within the residential real estate financing frame (SFR - 4-plex). Ideally, we love newly build properties that meet the foundational cash flow requirement. We currently find these in desirable coastal markets as well as established markets with a good rent level history (i.e. Memphis).

    If your goal is to create passive income then you will focus on that aspect. If your goal is to benefit from appreciation at the point of sale (x years after purchase), you focus on that. In our strategy, we don't plan to sell, so the appreciation is nice and can lead to lines of credit to provide down payment money for additional investment, but it's not a focus.

    One word about that $1million bay area example. I would always prefer the 10x $100K houses under professional property management (just to counter the kitchen and toilet argument) because it is a form of risk mitigation. People always make it sound like a house in the bay area or Seattle will never be empty. If your $1 million house costs you $6k - $7K to maintain (mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc) and your tenants move out leaving a mess, you pay for those costs out of pocket until things are fixed and a new tenant started paying rent. There is no scenario where 10 tenants in 10 houses will move out simultaneously so you will drastically reduce risk by having multiple smaller properties, everything else being equal. 

    I also loved to read that these $1million houses used to be $100K - $150K. You never know which area/location will get hot next, but you can settle on a sound strategy, stick with it and create your portfolio to reach your goals. That's what we do.

  • Huong T NguyenPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 93 posts · 35 votes
    4y
    As a new investor, I would never bet on property appreciation and subsidize my tenants to stay on my property.
    What if the housing market turns south and you are under water, at the same time you still have to subsidize tenants?
  • Real Estate Broker · 3412 S. Harlem Avenue Riverside, IL 60546 · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    4y

    @Ethan M. I think appreciation is a LOT more important than the BP crowd from 2011 would have thought. I think a lot of the early cash flow is king stuff comes from seeing appreciation get wiped out by the crash. I think cash flow is pretty much always necessary unless you are very well capitalized, but appreciation is really what will help you build wealth. Cash flow is often sucked up in long term hold situations by major CapEx events. As a case in point, I have an incredibly stable four unit that cash flows well. The roof is coming due soon, and I will have to decide if I want to put 3 years of cash flow into the roof or if I want to sell it (yikes). These are the kind of difficult decisions that face true buy and hold investors. I personally am more of a buy and trade up investor as I think you want to add the value and then sell to get the gains locked in. Then you want to use the gains to buy a new, larger asset that will allow you to play that game again.

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2020 · 50 posts · 23 votes
    4y

    @Chris John

    Really well laid out Chris. Echos many of the thoughts we've been having. In the current scenario, REI is turning out to be more than just running the numbers or finding the right property. Though we are still hunting for that elusive first house hack opportunity, my fiancée and I just started thinking about appreciation and how to think about opportunity cost vs time/effort spent

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 17 votes
    4y
    So many really smart insights here. Thank you all for taking the time to share your thoughts.
  • Huong T NguyenPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 93 posts · 35 votes
    4y
    This is actually a very good question, the more I think about it, and the comments others have made on this topic: Cash flow vs. appreciation.
    My only rental property I have now, a 24-unit MF property that I bought in early 2021, cash flows very well, but that means I will have to pay more income taxes this year.
    Had I thought about this in advance, (and not sure if lender wants to proceed that way as they also wanted to make sure I have more than enough cash every month to pay my mortgage), I would have asked for a 15-year amortization, instead of 20 years. That way I could grow equity faster and lower my income tax, and when I need money, I could borrow against the equity. 
    I did not and would not go to class D neighborhood or class D property for a higher cash flow. The compromise I made is, my property is located in a very, very small, but neat, clean town, with neighbors' houses showing pride of ownership.
  • Morris County, NJ · Member since 2020 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    @Huong T Nguyen

    I think commercial properties are different than residential properties.  Maybe its because I haven't done a larger commercial property.  Isn't the value of the commercial property, especially in your case, driven by cap rates and basically how much rent you can pull in?  Its an entirely different valuation method than a single family residential.  And even in my market, the multi's feel like they are driven by the rental income for a similar reason.

    How does using a 15yr amortization instead of 20yr decrease your income tax?  I thought only interest, and not principal, was allowed to be deducted?  The shorter amortization will only decrease your interest payments.

    I would just be mindful about generating expenses just to pay less tax.  For example, by spending $1 you now no longer have that dollar, even though the deductions makes the financing cost cheaper, i.e. less costly but its still a cost.  If you kept that dollar, you pay say $0.25 (for the sake of example) to the Government(s).  But, you still have $0.75 in your pocket.  Its a big difference.  Paying taxes is good; it means you are making money.  You just want to be paying taxes efficiently...

  • Huong T NguyenPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 93 posts · 35 votes
    4y
    Quote from @David M.:

    @Huong T Nguyen

    I think commercial properties are different than residential properties.  Maybe its because I haven't done a larger commercial property.  Isn't the value of the commercial property, especially in your case, driven by cap rates and basically how much rent you can pull in?  Its an entirely different valuation method than a single family residential.  And even in my market, the multi's feel like they are driven by the rental income for a similar reason.

    How does using a 15yr amortization instead of 20yr decrease your income tax?  I thought only interest, and not principal, was allowed to be deducted?  The shorter amortization will only decrease your interest payments.

    I would just be mindful about generating expenses just to pay less tax.  For example, by spending $1 you now no longer have that dollar, even though the deductions makes the financing cost cheaper, i.e. less costly but its still a cost.  If you kept that dollar, you pay say $0.25 (for the sake of example) to the Government(s).  But, you still have $0.75 in your pocket.  Its a big difference.  Paying taxes is good; it means you are making money.  You just want to be paying taxes efficiently...

    You are correct, David. I was wrong. We get taxed on the portion of mortgage payment that goes towards the principal. And no, I do not mean to evade taxes, but I was thinking if I could retain more profits, I could accumulate capital faster, to continue investing in RE.
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.