Property Analysis of less populated area where comps seem quite scarce

St. Louis, Missouri
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Property Analysis of less populated area where comps seem quite scarce

Jace Lowe
Belleville, IL · Member since 2026 · 7 posts · 3 votes

Hello all,

I have found a property & I am attempting to take my first stab at a property analysis by finding comps that would help me grasp an accurate price point for the property itself. I think the listing can go lower but I do not want to accidentally low ball the seller just because of my inexperience. 

The main problem is this property is located in a smaller town 20 mins across the river from St. Louis. All of the comps tutorials I have watched online and research about say try to keep it as close to appraiser rules as possible being:

Keep it in the same subdivision, don't cross any major roads

Stay within 200sqft in size

Only compare properties that are the same type (1 story, upstairs, etc)

Stay with same build generation

Don't use comps older than 6 months

Pay attention to property value

Look @ surroundings

These videos are great information however they are always researching in bigger cities where they have the information of lots of different comps. For my area, I cannot find anything within a 1 mile with the same aspects. If there are they are further out and at least 2 years old. I think I am overthinking this but it is little bit more challenging with fewer entities. I think it has potential. Just not confident because I cannot say I 100% got it down or am doing it quite right. Its also a duplex with no driveway. Id imagine not driveway or garage can potentially bring value down depending on the current price but I am having a very hard time finding comps to definitively say yes or no on that just as an example.

Any advice or methods for trying comps in more scarce markets?

Thank you in advance!

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Alex Morales
Member since 2026 · 97 posts · 57 votes
8mo

Kevin gave you great advice - especially the point about flexing on one criteria at a time.

For the Metro East / Belleville area specifically, a few things that have helped me when comps are thin:

First, for duplexes you might need to look at SFH comps and adjust. Not ideal but appraisers do it all the time in markets with few multi-family sales. Just be conservative - duplexes often trade at a slight discount to equivalent SFH sqft.

Second, consider looking across the river into St. Louis city for comp behavior patterns. I wouldn't use those as direct comps, but if similar condition SFH are trading at $100/sqft in south city, and your Belleville area is typically 10-15% lower, that gives you a sanity check.

Third, for the no-driveway issue - that's absolutely a negative adjustment. In that area I'd estimate $3-5k depending on lot size and whether street parking is easy. Garage would be $15-20k+ in value.

The tech tools can help speed up the initial comp pull. I use a combo of Redfin sold filters and PropLab to get a quick baseline, then manually verify the top 3-5 comps match the subject property characteristics.

What's the asking price and rough sqft on the duplex? Happy to help sanity check if you share more details.

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  • Kevin Sobilo
    Realtor · Hanover Twp, PA · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8mo

    @Jace Lowe, great question! A few thoughts:

    1. An appraiser appraising the same property will have the same issue! 

    2. Keep in mind that because of #1, you MAY see more variation with any professional appraisals that occur as you go along to finance, refinance, or sell the property. 

    3. Given, that an appraiser will have the same issue, do that they do. Flex. They will go further away from a property, further back in time, etc if they need to. 

    4. I would choose the aspect that is most stable or easiest to adjust for to flex on. 

    For example, if property values have spiked in the last 2-3 years in your area, I would try not to go further than 1 year back in time, but if the area is homogeneous I might go further away from the subject property. If its a rural area and 4 miles away in the next town the character of the area is similar I would use comps from there. 

    5. When in doubt use MORE comps! Nothing says that you can't flex 2-3 different ways and use more comps to average out any inconsistencies. 

    For example, prices have been stable in your area and the region is homogeneous. Perhaps also there aren't recent sales of homes close to the same size. 

    You might choose 2 comps that are older, 2 comps that are further away, and 2 comps that are larger. 

    6. Make sure to try to adjust reasonably for any differences. Make reasonable adjustments for differences in size, condition, whether they have a garage, etc. Do your best, its just an ESTIMATE. 

    7. Throw out any outliers! You might see a comp that just doesn't make sense. It might be crazy high or low and you don't know why. Just don't use that comp. You don't want something grossly out of the box to skew your estimate. If you were using 100 comps, it wouldn't matter but when you are only using a few or a handful an outlier can skew the numbers quite a bit. 

    8.  Avoid any "distressed sales". The most obvious would be a foreclosure. Maybe it was sold through an auction website where there was no interior access prior to bidding. The terms were cash only. Maybe utilities were off limiting the ability to inspect the property. All of these factors lead to a lower sale price than a normal market sale. So, don't use those as comps. 

    9. Only used CLOSED sales. Don't use active listings as comps or pending sales as comps. List prices and sale prices are not the same thing at all. 

    10. If you have access to the MLS or if you are getting comps through a realtor ask if the MLS shows if there were any "concessions" as part of the sale.

    Many times, the sale price might show $200,000, BUT that does not factor in that the seller paid seller assist to help the buyer pay some closing costs or any other concession the seller might make to get the sale to go through. These are often captured in the MLS. A $200k sale price might show a $10k concession and that is enough to be material to your analysis. So, if you can get that information make an adjustment based on that.

    0Reply
  • Alex Morales
    Member since 2026 · 97 posts · 57 votes
    8mo

    Kevin gave you great advice - especially the point about flexing on one criteria at a time.

    For the Metro East / Belleville area specifically, a few things that have helped me when comps are thin:

    First, for duplexes you might need to look at SFH comps and adjust. Not ideal but appraisers do it all the time in markets with few multi-family sales. Just be conservative - duplexes often trade at a slight discount to equivalent SFH sqft.

    Second, consider looking across the river into St. Louis city for comp behavior patterns. I wouldn't use those as direct comps, but if similar condition SFH are trading at $100/sqft in south city, and your Belleville area is typically 10-15% lower, that gives you a sanity check.

    Third, for the no-driveway issue - that's absolutely a negative adjustment. In that area I'd estimate $3-5k depending on lot size and whether street parking is easy. Garage would be $15-20k+ in value.

    The tech tools can help speed up the initial comp pull. I use a combo of Redfin sold filters and PropLab to get a quick baseline, then manually verify the top 3-5 comps match the subject property characteristics.

    What's the asking price and rough sqft on the duplex? Happy to help sanity check if you share more details.

    2Reply
  • Jace Lowe
    OP
    Belleville, IL · Member since 2026 · 7 posts · 3 votes
    8mo

    @Kevin Sobilo sounds like a plan. Thanks for the information!

    1Reply
  • David Warner
    Real Estate Agent · Troy, IL · Member since 2017 · 7 posts · 2 votes
    8mo

    Jace, I am a realtor/investor here in the metro east (Troy). Happy to send you some comps.

    0Reply
  • Eric Gerakos
    Investor · Costa Mesa, CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8mo

    Does the area have a tenant pool that will keep your property rented? That would be my first consideration. 

    0Reply
  • Ebonie Beaco
    Lender · Chicago, IL · Member since 2025 · 204 posts · 101 votes
    8mo

    Analyzing property in a less populated area where comps are scarce requires a different level of discipline. I’ve dealt with this as a mortgage professional in Chicago, working closely with real estate investors in St. Louis, and as an investor myself. The biggest mistake I see is stretching one or two weak comparables just to make the numbers work.

    When data is limited, I expand the search radius carefully but only include properties that truly align in size, condition, and property type. I also put more weight on the income approach. In smaller or less dense markets, rental performance, expense ratios, and realistic cap rate expectations often tell a clearer story than recent sales alone.

    I always suggest speaking with local agents and, when possible, appraisers who understand that specific market. In places like parts of St. Louis and other secondary areas, local insight carries significant weight because pricing trends can vary block by block.

    From a lending and underwriting standpoint, your projected value has to be supported by credible comparables. If the valuation stretches too far beyond what the market data supports, the appraisal can come in lower than expected and impact financing. In lower data markets, conservative underwriting and strong comparable support are key to protecting both your deal and your exit strategy.

    0Reply
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