Waiting on a half-point rate drop? 5% off the price does the same today

Waiting on a half-point rate drop? 5% off the price does the same today

David LurveyPro Member
Technology · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2026 · 31 posts · 6 votes

Follow-up to last week's thread on how fragile DSCR 1.25 is at 20% down. That one asked what pushes a deal under 1.25. This one asks the opposite: which lever gets a near-miss over it.

Same screen: 33,376 homes for sale with a rent estimate across 8 markets (Indianapolis, Kansas City, Houston, Dallas, Springfield MO, Sarasota, Crestview and Panama City FL). Site-built only, 20% down, 30-year at 7.25% (7.625% on 2-4 units), full PITIA. 507 clear 1.25 today.

What each lever does on its own:
- 5% off the price: 732
- Half a point off the rate: 726
- 25% down instead of 20%: 813
- $100 a month more rent than the estimate: 990
- 10% off the price: 1,059
- A full point off the rate: 1,033
- 5% off and half a point together: 1,032

Half a point and 5% off land on almost the same number because they cut the payment by the same amount. A $150k house with $120k borrowed is $819 P&I at 7.25%. At 6.75% it's $778. At 7.25% with 5% off the price it's also $778. One of those you can ask a seller for this week.

Rent is still the biggest lever. $100 a month is worth about 10% off the price, which is the flip side of last week's thread: $100 less wipes out over half the list, and $100 more almost doubles it.

It doesn't work everywhere. Sarasota goes from 15 to 16 with 5% off, and to 20 with 10% off; most homes there miss by more than a price cut can close. Kansas City goes from 241 to 347.

668 more homes sit between DSCR 1.15 and 1.25 right now. Those are the ones where an offer under asking, or a second rate quote, is worth the effort.

I held taxes and insurance where they are. In states that reassess on sale, a lower price lowers the tax too, so the price-cut counts are, if anything, a little low.

For anyone buying at 1.25 now: which do you actually get more often, a seller cut or a better rate quote?

Disclosure: I built NetsPositive, which is where these counts come from.

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  • Noah WrightBusiness Member
    USA, Nationwide · Member since 2024 · 388 posts · 134 votes
    6h

    In the deals I shop, the seller cut shows up a lot more often. Shopping lenders rarely finds a full half point on an otherwise identical file, and the gaps I do see usually come from prepay structure, points or the credit tier rather than the base rate. A seller sitting on a stale listing is the one most likely to take an offer 5% under asking. There's a middle route too, a seller credit used to buy the rate down, which most DSCR programs allow up to a capped percentage of the price. Running both directions of this screen is what makes the 668 band useful, since the lever you control is the one to work first. Have you modeled how those 668 shift if a seller credit toward points is used instead of a straight price cut?

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