Are you so sure about that @Rome Xu ? There are quite a few Bay Area investors doing really well. The numbers scare me but you know @Arlen Chou@J. Martin @Armin are all making money in the bay area. Come out and meet up with us at either a San Jose, Oakland, or San Francisco meetup!
I am a big believer that you should buy almost nothing at its peak. I like to buy stocks low, bonds low, and get deals on property.
Usually when there is retail craze in an area like San Francisco, that's an indicator for me to look elsewhere. I live in New York, so I am definitely used to real estate crazes.
I would recommend checking out areas in California or nearby states that may be ripe for new investment. My familiarity with the state is limited, but I understand that Sacramento and Bakersfield are very reasonable in comparison to their nearby neighbors.
I'm not thinking that real estate is the bay area is anywhere near its peak, and even at our last crash it was still very expensive compared to the rest of the country. I live in California and have no intention of ever looking to buy in that area. Just my opinion...
I am a big believer that you should buy almost nothing at its peak. I like to buy stocks low, bonds low, and get deals on property.
Usually when there is retail craze in an area like San Francisco, that's an indicator for me to look elsewhere. I live in New York, so I am definitely used to real estate crazes.
I would recommend checking out areas in California or nearby states that may be ripe for new investment. My familiarity with the state is limited, but I understand that Sacramento and Bakersfield are very reasonable in comparison to their nearby neighbors.
thanks for comment,i live in bay area,so i think maybe it is easy for me to invest ,but right now ,most house in bay area,the monthly mortgage is higher than rental income,it is crazy
Are you so sure about that @Rome Xu ? There are quite a few Bay Area investors doing really well. The numbers scare me but you know @Arlen Chou@J. Martin @Armin are all making money in the bay area. Come out and meet up with us at either a San Jose, Oakland, or San Francisco meetup!
Are you so sure about that @Rome Xu ? There are quite a few Bay Area investors doing really well. The numbers scare me but you know @Arlen Chou@J. Martin @Armin are all making money in the bay area. Come out and meet up with us at either a San Jose, Oakland, or San Francisco meetup!
HI @Troy Fisher
Thanks for replying,i'd love to meet up with u ,what is the group name on MEET UP
Barrier to entry is high, which is why I started using partners. It may or may not work out, who knows?
If it doesn't, at least I'm spreading the risk across other high income individuals... who can all chip in to help weather any storms...
If it does work out, well, then we all win! Imagine if you had a 25% equity stake in ANY home in Palo Alto back in the 80s or 90s... 25% doesn't seem like much... until it is.
@Rome Xu what's your exit strategy? Wholesaling and buy-hold my not be viable but buy-flip may be if you have enough capital for the down payment and rehab.
Had wholesaler bring me a 4plex in oakland yesterday for $485k gsi of $41,160. I'd guestimate that those rents are way under market because they are 2/1s, renting for less than 1000/mo? There are deals out there.
@Troy Fisher I had a RE agent share a property like this in W. Oakland with me. The guy didn't have the actual rents right--he mixed up current rents with "market" rents, which of course made the price way off base.
I guess if you can hold on for long enough and/or drive the price down, it might be worth it, though with rising rental prices in the bay area, it would be hard if not impossible to get tenants to leave without some seriously huge incentives!
I bought my first home in Palo alto for 185k 1984 ish... my first home in Milpitas in 78 for 80k ( and it was a brand new Shapel home)... Ya wish I still had those.. but still made huge margins on them compared to almost anywhere else in the country one could invest.
I like the partner Idea for sure.. and back in the later 80S when prices were really rising my PA home went from 180k in 84 to 424k in 89... What many RE investors were doing was partner with home owners Now I know with lending laws the way they are this would be tougher.. but I knew many who.. had cash they would be the cash partner put down the down payment on a PA home and remember you needed 20% in those days.. so 100k down and then the credit partner would move into the home as owner occ... and they would have a 3 to 7 year profit split arrangement.. I knew one lady that did about 30 of these and she made a KILLING. Not sure if this model works today but it worked then.
Hold down the shift key and type the following: @?
Look below this Window, and you will see a list of list of names of people who have posted in this thread.
Click on the name of the person that you want notified via an email that you responded to them.
If you are a Colleague with anyone that has not posted in this thread, and you want them to see your post, hold down the shift key, and type the @ and the first 4 letters of the first or last name.
Look below this Window, and click on your Colleague's name.
They will be notified via an email about your post in this thread.
@Rome Xu welcome to the REI world. I look at REI much like stock investing. You have decide if you want to be a trader or investor, meaning flipper or whole seller vs buy and hold investor. Trying to "time the market" in stocks is nearly impossible except for the elite few with tons of data and analysis on their side. Most pedestrians can only hope to get lucky trying to time the market. I believe that it is also true with REI. Trying to "time the RE market" is almost as difficult. You can see much more general "trends" that might give you some guidance, but the reality is that there are huge variables that can shift a trend graph fairly quickly. Again, for those people with much more focus and data resources then I will have much better chances of predicting a "bottom or top" of RE or any other industry curve.
For me I INVEST in both stocks and RE, I do not TRADE, which to me means that I am in it for a long period of time until there is a good reason to get out. Therefore, I don't look for the "bottom or top" of a market. I do what stock investors call "dollar cost averaging". More to the point, it is important to get into the game and continue to buy what you believe is a good investment and sell when it makes sense to your stratgy. Over an extended period of time your winners and looser will give you an average investment cost/return on investment.
This is basically the strategy in baseball of swinging for singles and doubles, vs. batters who only swing for the fence. I don't think that a person should follow one strategy over the other because other people say one is better then the other. You should follow the strategy that best fits your strengths.
You came to the right spot! Lots of great local investors in the area, and here on this forum! I’ve been MIA for a while with other projects and vacation, but easing back in to BP, and having a meetup in SF on Wed! I started with an owner-occupied 4plex, then partnered up on SFHs, duplex, and 4plex here in the Bay.. I’ve also had the pleasure of meeting these folks below..
@Troy Fisher thanks for the shout out! And why didn’t you call me about that Oakland wholesale deal!? (after you negotiate it down to $380K lol)
@Jay Y. I think it’s still a good play for the long run, although the price action on the peninsula has been phenomenal in this tech boom. Hope tech keeps chugging along.. Curious how you see in and out of state as the ratios diverge..
Yes, the laws are tougher on the equity split with homeowners nowadays, but there is a company that got licensed to do it and is actively pursuing it, in certain areas..
I saw Mike Lyon (sales director) speak about it as a tool for RE agents on high-end homes in the Bay where the owner doesn’t have the whole downpayment. Owner-occ only. I’m sure they had to jump through a lot of compliance hoops, especially on disclosures and processes, but apparently they got the approval from whatever regulatory authority they needed to..
@Steven W. , definitely nail them down on whether or not they are actual or “market” rents. It’s not that easy in Oakland to get to market, and sometimes may never get there.. But with capital improvements, you can do up to 30% in 3 years essentially..
@Arlen Chou , first, as always, I love your Oakland deal! How’s everything going? Hopefully no issues w/ the rain, and deal progressing..? As far as timing the RE market, I think it is a little different than the stock market, because the stock market can correct a lot faster. I used to think there was no ability to time the RE market. And I still don’t think anyone can reliably pick the exact bottom of top – or how long it can go past where it should be..
BUT, I would say that we are NOT at a low bottom right now, as far as the cycle goes. I would not be backing up the truck to buy as part of a cyclical strategy at this part of the cycle. But if you start seeing foreclosures increase dramatically, home affordability increasing dramatically, prices dropping, tons of days on market, investors getting out or foreclosed out of the industry, high cash ROI's, people talking about the end of the world and RE as we know it, it might be time to start buying on a regular basis through the "alleged" bottom..? (I don't think any of those things apply right now, but still good individual deals out there, as you know ;)
yes REX is exactly what I am talking about but of course in our Day it was simply a TIC
deal.
it looks like CA brokers license is what they are running on. they must record a memo of the agreement so no one can run off with the asset. also it says in the fine print they have the right to foreclose in the event of a default.. but if they are not lenders then I guess they would do some sort of law suit get a judgement then go to sherrif's sale to secure their investment.
I am sure they are killing it.. And if an investor wants to know were appreciation is going to happen in the US I would see what markets these guys work in... Their pedigree's are substantial and deep just follow were they are going !!!
