1%-2% rental rule of thumb

1%-2% rental rule of thumb

Investor · Keller, TX · Member since 2015 · 81 posts · 22 votes

Hi Bigger Pockets - long time lurker.
Part of my procrastination in buying SFR rentals in 2016 has been that my calculations show negative returns, thus no cash flow. The DFW market heated up rapidly in 2013-2016 and has cooled slightly over winter. However, housing is still very expensive and rental value has not kept up. Whether sales have peeked or not is another debate.


How do landlords manage to buy and hold rentals if the rental returns are sub the 1% rule? Some area's the rental income is as low as 0.6% - 0.8% of value and if you do the due diligence there is not enough in the rent to set aside for keeping you at the recommended minimum 50% expenditures.
E.g.
Vacancy (8.133%pa)
Insurance (1% of value pa)
Maintenance (10% of rent)
Taxes (2.48% of purchase value pa)
Management (??? 10% of rent)

Granted some expenditure above is subjective, but you still need to set it aside and this excludes servicing your mortgage. Unless you have a lot of equity in the property the numbers do not stack up. Property is sold the day it hits the marketplace and I am yet to find discounted property for sale to satisfy the 1% rule.
So how do seasoned investors make money in this sort of rental market?

Thanks in advance,

Gary.

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Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 738 posts · 1k+ votes
9y

Hi @Gary Baker! Great question!

In my opinion, the 2% Rule is really only useful for lower priced properties in the $50-100k range. If you have a $50k SFR that rents for $1,000 that'd be a killer deal and meet the 2% rule of thumb.

But like @Eric Marofske said, in California it simply doesn't work. You'd need to find a $400k property that rents for $8,000 per month! And the second you find one of those let me know because I'll be the first to buy it lol.

Once you get past a certain price point, SFR becomes out of the question. You'll need to start looking to 2-4 unit multifamily. That's the only way to make some decent returns on the monthly cash flow.

Here in Sacramento and the Central Valley (Stockton, Modesto, Fresno) you can expect 0.60 - 0.70% on average, with the better properties being in the 0.80 - 1.0% range. RARELY will you see something crack the 1% barrier (at least off the MLS) and usually it's gonna need some serious rehab and remodeling. Highest I've ever seen was like 1.33% on a fourplex in Stockton, CA.

Hope this information helps! Start looking into 2-4 units and you're sure to find some deals!

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  • Rental Property Investor · Olathe, KS · Member since 2016 · 21 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    @Gary Baker I'd be even more conservative on the monthly rent for the unit in Phoenix and hold true to you criteria.  One of the first things I look at is the price and tax history on a property to try to figure out the history of the property.  The listing @Diane G. mentions sold for $36k in 2014 and I'm guessing the owner didn't put much into it and rented it for close to $845.  It appears they decided they don't want the hassle (just a guess... could be selling for other reasons) of that property anymore.  They probably did a light rehab on it and are now trying to sell it for more than 2x what they paid.  So the question becomes is how much more you can get in rent against the rehab they did?  Or maybe they did the light rehab in 2014 and $845 is all it commands.  

    Lets just say you can now command $1100/mo. In a HOA situation you need to factor that in right away @ -$375/mo effectively making your take $725 before any other expenses and reserves. You would also want to understand the last five years of assessments and break that down to a monthly amount. We all know @Joshua D. loves association situations :).  You have to be very careful with this added layer.   

    Market rent for the property/unit = very important.  Look at historical rental listings for that unit and others around it.  Look at what Zillow estimates rent to be.  Utilize rentometer.com as another test.  Never take any single source as exact (especially Zillow) but triangulate from there.  

    I really like the crime heat-map feature of trulia as well so I always look at it for each property.  This will allow you to quickly understand what kind of area it could be in.  I say could because you still need to research the other aspects of the neighborhood and future potential.  

    DOM can also be an indicator of desirability.  If it were such a great investment wouldn't the seller keep it or some other (local) investor jumped all over it?   

    Just a couple additional thoughts... especially when looking at out of state investments.     

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Michael Lauther 

    Very good posts... Thanks for sharing...

    @Rick Hamrick

    I am not trying to sell anything to anybody here, just for the fun of discussion..... These propertyies at 1609 W Glendale..

    They have an existing PM that manage all of the 146 units in the complex... For each unit, $350 a month for utility, $50 for PM, $50 for Maintenance, $150 for tax.... so net income is 875-600 = 275... Very low vacancy from what I observed...There is also a bundle of 8 units on Loopnet now for $474K.... Interesting stuff...

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Rick Hamrick

    I dont understand why price in that complex went up so much lately... Back in mid 2016, they were going for $45K

  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    @Gary Baker Due to the high property taxes and insurance rates in Dallas, it's virtually impossible to cash flow on a 1% rent ratio, however, getting a higher ratio on a turn key there is equally impossible. You might want to consider more affordable, higher cash flow markets. I like Kansas City and Indianapolis a lot. We sell turn keys in those areas and know them well. Feel free to reach out if you'd like some help.

  • Investor · WI OH · Member since 2015 · 113 posts · 36 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Gary Baker:

    @Amit Kal
    Amit, I am looking at the retail MLS. I am not savvy; I unfortunately was uneducated in the ways of the real world of finance and relied on the stock market. But after every crash for the last 30yrs I finally woke up to the fact that I literally have not made any real gains in the stock market in all this time. So in time for retirement, I now have to apply high risk strategies to help bolster an otherwise non-existent 401k. As for 20-30% below market value properties, I have only seen them in C/C- areas and I am uncomfortable/scared with this as not being savvy and streetwise. I am on a wholesaler email list, but honestly the ARV they give is too high and the repair estimates are very low. I need to get on a few more lists.

     Nailed it here.

  • Full-Time Investor & Agent · Amherst, OH · Member since 2014 · 149 posts · 50 votes
    9y

    @Mike D'Arrigo If you like Kansas City and Indy I think you would really like Cleveland, Ohio.  PM me if you have any interest in Cleveland cash flow properties.

  • Investor · Keller, TX · Member since 2015 · 81 posts · 22 votes
    9y

    @Michael Lauther

    Michael, thank you. Your post has me thinking that I need to rethink my strategy for cash flow. Age is against me. I am very weary on out of state ownership, so I am going to have to investigate as I have seen a multitude of turnkey operations. Home ownership like this would require a very good and trustworthy property manager.


    @Rick Hamrick
    Rick, I am not a great fan of HOA's, although they can ensure that general property maintenance is kept up which would probably be a good idea for out of state property. Diane also mentioned that there is a bundle of 8 for sale and they come in at $59250 each, so you are dead on about the value. Where can a person find granular historical data that you mentioned? I don't trust Zillow as their data is often stale and incorrect and often property long sold.


    @Diane G.
    Loopnet, the more you know.


  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area · Member since 2015 · 154 posts · 179 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Diane G.:

    @Gary Baker

    I think it is more like $1100, I don't believe in out of state investing... otherwise, I will definitely consider buying it....

    By the way you estimates on my short sale is right on!!!! $1.4m value with rent at $4400 now...

    There is a $375 HOA on that property. $1100 - $375 is $725, so unless you talk $25K off the price you will not make the 1% rule :)

  • Richardson, TX · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 4 votes
    9y

    @Wes Blackwell as someone who's learning the DFW market and looking to buy my first property next year, I appreciate the links you provided.

  • Real Estate Agent · Irving, TX · Member since 2015 · 32 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Over the past 3 years or so DFW has pretty much turned into a Buy and Hold market. Yes there will still be exceptional deals to find but there are as many sharks as well.

    Texas is traditionally not a 'quick buck' market so any new investor should understand their investment goals, life situation and risk tolerance before diving in head first.

    Lot of my Investors treat Real Estate as a means to diversify their Investment Portfolio and are decades away from retirement, so DFW still works.

    Again - Do your due diligence and YMMV.

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