Craziness in Las Vegas market or just me??

Craziness in Las Vegas market or just me??

Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes

In the past month I have visited, analyzed and submitted multiple offers for rehab properties in the Las Vegas area. Some of the properties have sold, and for much more that what would seem reasonable. Being eager to get my first flip, I'm only planing on making $15-18K profit. I would like to share a few of them and get some feedback or advice from more experienced investors.  

This property is in North Las Vegas in an area I would rate as a C+ area, consisting of mostly older homes built in the 60's and early 70's with nice size lots, for Las Vegas area, around 6,000 sq/ft.  These are the numbers I came up with for this property. The house was listed for $99,900, but in need of repairs and updating and had a pigeon infestation in the roof. The tile flooring did not match throughout the house, the grout lines were not even, and some areas around the edge of the time had almost 2" of grout instead of cutting a piece of tile for the edge. I learned that this property sold in December 2016 for $ 48,000 and was listed back for sale, with no work done at all in January 2017 for $ 99,900. 

List price $ 99,900

ARV - $110,000

Rehab - $12,000

Closing costs + interest $10,000. 

Offer - $ 70,000 

                                                       Sold Jan 31st (13 days on market)  $ 94,000

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The next property, only a few neighborhoods away, was built in 1959 and was obvious it had never been updated at all.  Still has the wood paneling, yellow and brown carpet, original kitchen cabinets and wood countertops, original windows, currently no heating system.  This property mostly just needed a facelift but looked pretty bad. 

List Price $87,500

ARV - $105,000

Rehab - $ 20,000

Closing cost + interest $9,500

Offer $ 60,000

                                   Sold Jan 31st (Within 30 days on market) $ 85,000

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
9y

we bought 2 sub 150 flips in the last 10 days that had nice margins.. it can be done.  none were off market..

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  • Northern, CA · Member since 2014 · 674 posts · 444 votes
    9y

    I'm assuming both these are listed on the MLS. The first one sounds like a wholetail deal, investor bought it for 50% as is value and immediately listed it for 100% as is value. The reason most intelligent investors buy off market is because it allows you to buy at a discount. When buying from the MLS you're not just competing with investors, you're competing with buyers who want to rehab to live in and they don't care about profit.

    I've only offered on one MLS property so far and was out bid by exactly this type of buyer by 80k. Whatever, next.

    Offer your number and move on.  I may put in an offer on another currently listed house.  I've rehabbed a similar house so I know my costs.  My offer would be 55% of list.   Will I get it?  99% unlikely.  I'm a Realtor so I'll save myself the time of writing the offer and make a verbal offer to the listing agent. I'm going to let the owner suffer for a while with their high price (already been listed 4 months) because nobody will buy it at it's current price.

    Last piece of advice, I would not recommend being eager to do a first flip wth a thin profit margin.  That thin profit margin could easily turn into a substantial loss.  Let the experience guys do the thin deals, they know the numbers and realities better.

  • Investor · Las Vegas. Jacksonville, Bay Area Ca, Nv, Ca, Fl · Member since 2015 · 511 posts · 220 votes
    9y

    I agree with @Lee S., Such a thin margin is really cutting it close for a first time flipper. The $150k and under market is on fire right now in Vegas. It seems that every flipper entering the market  wants to start out at the lowest point to help minimize their risk. With the rents going up at the current rate the buy and hold investors are reducing the inventory. I see a dramatic change and shift in the low end market since this time last year. There are homes on the market that would not sell for half of what they are selling for now, last year. I played it smart last year and bought as many properties as I could, boarded them up and started rehabbing as the neighborhoods increased in value.

  • North Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 77 posts · 27 votes
    9y

    Hey what's up sounds like you're searching for mls homes,  not going to find many opportunities through mls especially  now. I've been funneling leads for the last month trying to lock up some wholesale deals for cash buyers.  I'll shoot'em your way when I do.  Good luck you will find something!

  • Investor · Norwalk, CT · Member since 2016 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    This is useful info.  I am planning on moving out to Vegas in a couple years.  I currently rent in other states, and intended to increase my exposure there as well when I move.  Sounds like maybe I should start renting out there sooner though.

    Robert/Jason - What does the inventory look like right now?  Do you get the feeling home values will continue to appreciate at current rates, or do you have any sense it is dying out?

  • Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
    9y

    @Angelo Murano  There is a major shortage in the price range they are discussing.  It's probably less than 1.5 month supply.  Builders are not building in this price point either.  Pricing is moving up fast in that segment.

  • Investor · Las Vegas. Jacksonville, Bay Area Ca, Nv, Ca, Fl · Member since 2015 · 511 posts · 220 votes
    9y

    @Angelo Murano.  This is just my opinion, but if you do not have a foot in the Vegas market right now, it would be best to wait the 2 years. The market is topping out by the end of summer if not sooner in the $150K. The multi's market is highly competitive, @Phillip Dwyer is correct that the builders are focusing on the $300k entry points. The faster the low market climbs the more likely the buyers will gravitate towards the newer homes. The rental market is also rising directly proportional to the overall market increased ratios. Just before the rental market tops out the renters will want to invest in entry level homes because of the cheapest money around, a mortgage. I am gambling on the timeline for this cycle will be 2 years or less. Just a thought . Good luck.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    we bought 2 sub 150 flips in the last 10 days that had nice margins.. it can be done.  none were off market..

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    9y
    Thanks everyone for the info. I would love to find some properties that are "off market" to purchase, but I'm not exactly sure how to go about successfully doing that in a relatively short period of time.
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    @Jason E.  in tight markets like Vegas folks are just not going to e mail you or call you with deals that make you 30 to 50k out of the goodness of their hearts.

    this is a dog eat dog business never forget that.

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    9y
    I'm not looking for any hand outs, I was just putting it out there that I'm looking for rehab properties and have cash. I would hope anyone selling would make their profit too.
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    @Jason E.   my point is you have to dig in... I have had maybe 5 socalled wholesalers tell me they are going to send me deals. NEVER ONCE GOT AN EMAIL of  deal .. or even a NON deal.

    so my point is in that market you really have to dig your heels in and find them on your own

    I am not saying your looking for a handout.. just commenting that the deals are tough and no one is going to just lay it in your lap

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    9y
    Thanks for the advice! I have been searching hard for properties, mostly using MLS and every now and then a heads up on a house coming into the market by my agent. Like you said, It might be time for other methods. If anyone has any advice on other methods, I would love to hear what others are doing. (I'm semi familiar with driving for dollars) and the "bandit signs, which I'm really not a fan of.
  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Just ran MLS... in the range of $50K to $189K, there are 890 listings on MLS.... I am NOT seeing how that can be a "tight" market with so many sellers.....What did I miss?

  • Investor · Las Vegas. Jacksonville, Bay Area Ca, Nv, Ca, Fl · Member since 2015 · 511 posts · 220 votes
    9y

      @Diane G.. What @Jay Hinrichs and I are referring to is properties that can bought at discount which can be rehabbed, and resold for a satisfactory ROI. Just running a spread on the MLS you are not weeding out the newly rehabbed, extremely distressed (tear downs), over priced and so on. Must compared apple to apples. @Jason E.  has stated above he is interested in flipping properties in Vegas. Although there are some properties listed on the MLS that will produce a return for a flipper, most are listed to high and to deteriorated to turn a decent return.     

  • Real Estate Agent · Henderson, NV · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 550 votes
    9y

    @Diane G. In your analysis, how many sold in the past 30, 60, 90 days?  The number of listings by itself does not tell the whole story.  You need to compare it against the absorption rate to find out how much supply is really there.

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2011 · 188 posts · 116 votes
    9y

    @Jason E.

    I think your ARV on the first property ( Siler) is a bit low. A model match comp sold for $120k with a 2k concession. Nonetheless, the buyer did pay a price that would likely be unprofitable if they sold today for 120k repaired.

    On Emmons, I think the buyer got a descent deal, and I would have purchased it around that price range.

    I think the buyer based their purchase price on an ARV of around $135k

    There are a couple of comps that support that price, including 1713 Arther, 3201 Tonopah, and 2617 Reynolds.
    In addition, that neighborhood has an absorption rate of about 40 days for properties that size.

     

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