Housing crash deniers ???
Most Popular Reply
Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votesThe market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
2904 Replies
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
IMF has report today that in 4 quarter US inflation would be 2.5 ; while UK,Germany,etc still sitting at 5-6%.
Food inflation would also drop sharply.
I guess the home price going to melt up again lol - I'm hearing opinions that US is not far behind UK & Germany due to the reckless spending and printing trillions of dollars.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
IMF has report today that in 4 quarter US inflation would be 2.5 ; while UK,Germany,etc still sitting at 5-6%.
Food inflation would also drop sharply.
I guess the home price going to melt up again lol - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4yThat was, before.
Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm hearing opinions that US is not far behind UK & Germany due to the reckless spending and printing trillions of dollars.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
IMF has report today that in 4 quarter US inflation would be 2.5 ; while UK,Germany,etc still sitting at 5-6%.
Food inflation would also drop sharply.
I guess the home price going to melt up again lolThe thing is the Fed already reduced its balance sheet a lot *TODAY* and the global M2 supply + Fed sheet is nearing its long term target.
Market moves up today because it assumes Fed would pivot in December. - Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
That was, before.Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm hearing opinions that US is not far behind UK & Germany due to the reckless spending and printing trillions of dollars.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
IMF has report today that in 4 quarter US inflation would be 2.5 ; while UK,Germany,etc still sitting at 5-6%.
Food inflation would also drop sharply.
I guess the home price going to melt up again lolThe thing is the Fed already reduced its balance sheet a lot *TODAY* and the global M2 supply + Fed sheet is nearing its long term target.
Market moves up today because it assumes Fed would pivot in December.Trying to predict the stock/fed right now I think is a recipe for disaster at the moment. To all the point above it's funny because the trade deficit is down we are likely to have positive Q3 growth in GDP now: https://www.reuters.com/market... So I guess we are out of recession :).
All the old economic indicators are out. It's interesting they think Fed will pivot in December because there has been speculation and comments that indicate they might go harder in November (100 basis points) instead of the 75. time will tell but I think next 75 days are critical.
- Member since 2019 · 38 posts · 45 votes4y
Just look at fed balance sheet if you want to know where prices are heading, or at least which direction the winds are blowing. For the folks who see the current environment as way different from 2008, sure there won't be the sudden subprime crash. But the fed's response to that was raising its BS from 900B to 2 trillion. This time around they have gone from 4 trillion to 9 TRILLION. All sorts of asset classes got inflated as a result - stocks, real estate, freaking crypto & NFTs, STONKS, you name it. Total sugar high across the board. Sure there is a shift to remote work which will be permanent but by no means does that guarantee a floor on current prices.
Now they are starting to taper that down and boy is there a lot of tapering to be done before it gets to any sort of reasonable level.
There may not be a housing 'crash' but with interest rates rising at a historic pace and a record amount of tapering that is coming, how can you say that a 20% decline over next few years isn't within the realm. All that does is back us up to Q4 2020 / Q1 2021 levels lol. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4yno need to predict. it will be fine.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
That was, before.Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm hearing opinions that US is not far behind UK & Germany due to the reckless spending and printing trillions of dollars.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
IMF has report today that in 4 quarter US inflation would be 2.5 ; while UK,Germany,etc still sitting at 5-6%.
Food inflation would also drop sharply.
I guess the home price going to melt up again lolThe thing is the Fed already reduced its balance sheet a lot *TODAY* and the global M2 supply + Fed sheet is nearing its long term target.
Market moves up today because it assumes Fed would pivot in December.Trying to predict the stock/fed right now I think is a recipe for disaster at the moment. To all the point above it's funny because the trade deficit is down we are likely to have positive Q3 growth in GDP now: https://www.reuters.com/market... So I guess we are out of recession :).
All the old economic indicators are out. It's interesting they think Fed will pivot in December because there has been speculation and comments that indicate they might go harder in November (100 basis points) instead of the 75. time will tell but I think next 75 days are critical.
@Carlos Ptriawan I'm not sure why you are so confident with 2 year projections from the international monetary fund.
"A Bloomberg analysis of more than 3,200 same-year country forecasts published each spring since 1999 found a wide variation in the direction and magnitude of errors. In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent..."
In other words, their projections are off 94% of the time.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Carlos Ptriawan I'm not sure why you are so confident with 2 year projections from the international monetary fund.
"A Bloomberg analysis of more than 3,200 same-year country forecasts published each spring since 1999 found a wide variation in the direction and magnitude of errors. In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent..."
In other words, their projections are off 94% of the time.
I followed IMF data for more than 20 years now. It's okay if you dont believe IMF but if you refuse every single piece of data that doesn't agree with your bias then you may make a wrongful decision. We are definitely at inflection point here so is okay to have different analysis.
yesterday Zillow is saying we have 0 growth for housing, now IMF is saying US will even better projection in 2023 , we will have growth again with falling inflation.So you have two professional international organization that againts your bias.
I'm very data driven, I just follow the guy that's smarter than me, they got paid while doing the research.
Here's the third one.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Carlos Ptriawan I'm not sure why you are so confident with 2 year projections from the international monetary fund.
"A Bloomberg analysis of more than 3,200 same-year country forecasts published each spring since 1999 found a wide variation in the direction and magnitude of errors. In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent..."
In other words, their projections are off 94% of the time.
I followed IMF data for more than 20 years now. It's okay if you dont believe IMF but if you refuse every single piece of data that doesn't agree with your bias then you may make a wrongful decision. We are definitely at inflection point here so is okay to have different analysis.
yesterday Zillow is saying we have 0 growth for housing, now IMF is saying US will even better projection in 2023 , we will have growth again with falling inflation.So you have two professional international organization that againts your bias.
I'm very data driven, I just follow the guy that's smarter than me, they got paid while doing the research.
Here's the third one.
I wouldn't call projections "data". Projections are just that, and the truth of the matter is that the IMF doesn't have a crystal ball. The data shows that 94% of the time their projections are off.
Data is "actuals", and projections are basically educated guesses with varying levels of accuracy (depending on the source, the topic, etc.)
Zillow, redfin, national association of realtors, etc., have great data (actuals), but their projections can be, and should be called into question and examined. Just like Bloomberg did a study of past projections and measured the level of accuracy of IMF projections, we should look at how prior Zillow projections have panned out.
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).- Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Carlos Ptriawan I'm not sure why you are so confident with 2 year projections from the international monetary fund.
"A Bloomberg analysis of more than 3,200 same-year country forecasts published each spring since 1999 found a wide variation in the direction and magnitude of errors. In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent..."
In other words, their projections are off 94% of the time.
I followed IMF data for more than 20 years now. It's okay if you dont believe IMF but if you refuse every single piece of data that doesn't agree with your bias then you may make a wrongful decision. We are definitely at inflection point here so is okay to have different analysis.
yesterday Zillow is saying we have 0 growth for housing, now IMF is saying US will even better projection in 2023 , we will have growth again with falling inflation.So you have two professional international organization that againts your bias.
I'm very data driven, I just follow the guy that's smarter than me, they got paid while doing the research.
Here's the third one.
I wouldn't call projections "data". Projections are just that, and the truth of the matter is that the IMF doesn't have a crystal ball. The data shows that 94% of the time their projections are off.
Data is "actuals", and projections are basically educated guesses with varying levels of accuracy (depending on the source, the topic, etc.)
Zillow, redfin, national association of realtors, etc., have great data (actuals), but their projections can be, and should be called into question and examined. Just like Bloomberg did a study of past projections and measured the level of accuracy of IMF projections, we should look at how prior Zillow projections have panned out.
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).And 87.6% of the time percentages are made up.
- Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Predictions are typically off. That's true. But predictions on trajectory are usually much more accurate. Inflation is shown to be trending down, GDP will be positive this qtr, and things will continue to stagnate but they are on a trajectory to not get worse.
October data on housing is going to be very telling. If it continues to flatline as it did in August/September then all these other predictions of how much housing basically require the economy to break in a way that it isn't right now. Inflation is slowing, rates are up and will go up a bit more but it doesn't seem to matter since most people are just sitting tight.
The only people who will be selling the next 5-6 months will be those that have to. Theres a reason why sales have fallen off a cliff and yet pricing has more or less stayed flat. Right now the indicators point towards stagnation. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Predictions are typically off. That's true. But predictions on trajectory are usually much more accurate. Inflation is shown to be trending down, GDP will be positive this qtr, and things will continue to stagnate but they are on a trajectory to not get worse.
October data on housing is going to be very telling. If it continues to flatline as it did in August/September then all these other predictions of how much housing basically require the economy to break in a way that it isn't right now. Inflation is slowing, rates are up and will go up a bit more but it doesn't seem to matter since most people are just sitting tight.
The only people who will be selling the next 5-6 months will be those that have to. Theres a reason why sales have fallen off a cliff and yet pricing has more or less stayed flat. Right now the indicators point towards stagnation.It's extremely easy to understand why inflation would be down :
1. food inflation across the globe except in developed country actually has flat line
2. shipping cost decreased
3. FAO food index is also going down , including meat
4. supply chain metric is down
5. while fed data,especially using rent / OER is lagging for 12 months so we may see the effect of reduced inflation after 12 months only, not easy to stomach I know but it is what it is
This is logistical issue instead of monetary issue. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Greg R.:
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.
If the international organization is saying we will have more economic growth next year, then that is good news. My personal belief does not matter. The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
- Wait, you're saying that you believe that political polling "data" is accurate?
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
at the end of the day it doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong we are all on this together
if IMF or Fed says we're going to have a 10% 30YFRM mortgage then the price would definetely crash. If not then price would rise or neutral.
I'm only saying folks that are smarter than me are saying no crash and economy would be better, that's all, i am only a messenger haha
I would not get soccer gold medal championship signature even if "projection" turn out to be correct one year from now LOL - All I'm saying is that projections are not always right - they are an educated guess, many of which turn out to be incorrect. Also, let's not be so naive to think that there aren't political interests and dishonesty amongst international & governmental orgs. Never forget, it was "people smarter than us" who claimed there were WMDs. We have a current example playing out, the admin is claiming that we're not in a rescission and is also grossly misrepresenting the inflation that we're seeing.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
at the end of the day it doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong we are all on this together
if IMF or Fed says we're going to have a 10% 30YFRM mortgage then the price would definetely crash. If not then price would rise or neutral.
I'm only saying folks that are smarter than me are saying no crash and economy would be better, that's all, i am only a messenger haha
I would not get soccer gold medal championship signature even if "projection" turn out to be correct one year from now LOL - Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes4yWatch the diesel. We have the lowest inventory since 2008 of diesel. Nothing moves without diesel; ships, trains, trucks - food, medicine, supplies and on and on all rely on affordable and available diesel. And that is what we no longer have enough of. That changes all predictions.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Wait, you're saying that you believe that political polling "data" is accurate?Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.
- Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Greg R.:
All I'm saying is that projections are not always right - they are an educated guess, many of which turn out to be incorrect. Also, let's not be so naive to think that there aren't political interests and dishonesty amongst international & governmental orgs. Never forget, it was "people smarter than us" who claimed there were WMDs. We have a current example playing out, the admin is claiming that we're not in a rescission and is also grossly misrepresenting the inflation that we're seeing.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
at the end of the day it doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong we are all on this together
if IMF or Fed says we're going to have a 10% 30YFRM mortgage then the price would definetely crash. If not then price would rise or neutral.
I'm only saying folks that are smarter than me are saying no crash and economy would be better, that's all, i am only a messenger haha
I would not get soccer gold medal championship signature even if "projection" turn out to be correct one year from now LOLPositive GDP likely in Q3. So guess we are only in a recession for 90 days ? Admin is technically right if you buy into the old school KPI you and others have thrown around.
- Diesel fuel is extremely expensive in my neck of the woods right now. I wasn't aware of the shortage though.
Quote from @Account Closed:
Watch the diesel. We have the lowest inventory since 2008 of diesel. Nothing moves without diesel; ships, trains, trucks - food, medicine, supplies and on and on all rely on affordable and available diesel. And that is what we no longer have enough of. That changes all predictions.Quote from @Greg R.:
Wait, you're saying that you believe that political polling "data" is accurate?Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Same thing we get with polls. Would you consider political polling as data? Much of it is wildly off when the votes come in (the actuals).of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4ynot really an educated guess, it's already trajectory, kindergarten kid can also see where it's going by looking at PPI, WMD has no relevancy here.
Quote from @Greg R.:
All I'm saying is that projections are not always right - they are an educated guess, many of which turn out to be incorrect. Also, let's not be so naive to think that there aren't political interests and dishonesty amongst international & governmental orgs. Never forget, it was "people smarter than us" who claimed there were WMDs. We have a current example playing out, the admin is claiming that we're not in a rescission and is also grossly misrepresenting the inflation that we're seeing.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
This is latest PPI reading:2021 Jan 1.6 3.0 4.1 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.9 Dec 10.0 2022 10.1 10.4 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.3(P) 9.8(P) 8.7(P) 8.5(P)
This is moving in the right direction. What Fed mistake is they don't raise rates from April when CPI increased 100% ; but they're right when they have reduced their balance sheet from April 2021. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
All I'm saying is that projections are not always right - they are an educated guess, many of which turn out to be incorrect. Also, let's not be so naive to think that there aren't political interests and dishonesty amongst international & governmental orgs. Never forget, it was "people smarter than us" who claimed there were WMDs. We have a current example playing out, the admin is claiming that we're not in a rescission and is also grossly misrepresenting the inflation that we're seeing.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
at the end of the day it doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong we are all on this together
if IMF or Fed says we're going to have a 10% 30YFRM mortgage then the price would definetely crash. If not then price would rise or neutral.
I'm only saying folks that are smarter than me are saying no crash and economy would be better, that's all, i am only a messenger haha
I would not get soccer gold medal championship signature even if "projection" turn out to be correct one year from now LOLPositive GDP likely in Q3. So guess we are only in a recession for 90 days ? Admin is technically right if you buy into the old school KPI you and others have thrown around.
Don't even debate it , some folks don't even like it if there's slightly good news :) LOL
But based on data it seems that even if there's a recession, it's a mild one.
But truly seems like all these Fed chairmen has a different opinion now, half wants pivot now and half want rate hikes to 4.5 to be continued.
I think politics are also playing here lol - Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
All I'm saying is that projections are not always right - they are an educated guess, many of which turn out to be incorrect. Also, let's not be so naive to think that there aren't political interests and dishonesty amongst international & governmental orgs. Never forget, it was "people smarter than us" who claimed there were WMDs. We have a current example playing out, the admin is claiming that we're not in a rescission and is also grossly misrepresenting the inflation that we're seeing.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
The wise words of Brian Fantana "60% of the time, it works every time"
There's good reason for people like me, @Bruce Woodruff, and others not to put a ton of stock in projections and opinions of governmental, NGOs, and international organizations (amongst others). Their record isn't exactly stellar.
at the end of the day it doesn't matter who is right or who is wrong we are all on this together
if IMF or Fed says we're going to have a 10% 30YFRM mortgage then the price would definetely crash. If not then price would rise or neutral.
I'm only saying folks that are smarter than me are saying no crash and economy would be better, that's all, i am only a messenger haha
I would not get soccer gold medal championship signature even if "projection" turn out to be correct one year from now LOLPositive GDP likely in Q3. So guess we are only in a recession for 90 days ? Admin is technically right if you buy into the old school KPI you and others have thrown around.
Don't even debate it , some folks don't even like it if there's slightly good news :) LOL
But based on data it seems that even if there's a recession, it's a mild one.
But truly seems like all these Fed chairmen has a different opinion now, half wants pivot now and half want rate hikes to 4.5 to be continued.
I think politics are also playing here lolEhh I’m not debating much just pointing it out for later reference. My talk track has been very consistent since the beginning. My trajectory I’ve felt confident about, if not the total prediction, short of the fed really screwing us.
I don’t think the GDP piece is a real good metric anymore - basically in a heavy digital/service economy the old metrics don’t work for me. So while GDP might be positive I still think we’ve got some more pain/stagnation.
As to the fed chairmen split opinions - I think part of it is a combination of old school being scared of inflation (which is logical in some respects) and an understanding around the reality is only so many jobs are being lost so will it continue to slow.
My opinion is thye should split the difference. Don’t pivot. Don’t hike but wait it out. Reality is if we keep steady + inflation adjustment (won’t dissappear immediately) sometime around February we will probably have made our way through it.
Essentially lets inflate are way out of it. Might not be the best way of doing it but seems far safer than crashing the global economy which more hikes or bigger hikes than the next 75 basis points - could do.
Time will tell. But patience to me overall is the key thing right now.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4ySomething that I learnt recently..... I'm in the opinion of pivoting asap because the US and European gov. are losing money big time with interest rates this high, only the bank makes free money. Actually, even if they raise the rate even further, it's not the people that will suffer <--- watch this....... but US gov itself that would suffer as the deficit is extremely rising, the gov. doesn't have money to pay that stupid interest.
Central Bank could raise the rate usually only if their balance of trade is positive, if we keep having this high-interest rate for a prolonged time, everything collapsed.
