Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.

As an extremely biased salesperson, I do not anticipate a crash. In the midwest there is still such a shortage of housing that prices are continuing to increase even though the demand has significantly dropped due to the interest rate increases. We have a 9% year over year drop in supply, but a 12% increase in the average home price since Sept of last year. A correction is healthy, but come Spring time we will see what happens to the market.
Texas is obviously not the Midwest markets. Frankly the only thing that matters at a national level for median home prices are the coasts, West Coast including a few other key states as Californias spread out and Texas.
I can’t imagine anybody thinks any big shift is happening in the real Midwest. They never really got a bit shift up.
I have to argue that point. I know the coasts have thought themselves the entirety, but in reality, things are rather equalized. If anything, the South (Sun Belt) is the central position in things.

As an extremely biased salesperson, I do not anticipate a crash. In the midwest there is still such a shortage of housing that prices are continuing to increase even though the demand has significantly dropped due to the interest rate increases. We have a 9% year over year drop in supply, but a 12% increase in the average home price since Sept of last year. A correction is healthy, but come Spring time we will see what happens to the market.
Texas is obviously not the Midwest markets. Frankly the only thing that matters at a national level for median home prices are the coasts, West Coast including a few other key states as Californias spread out and Texas.
I can’t imagine anybody thinks any big shift is happening in the real Midwest. They never really got a bit shift up.
I have to argue that point. I know the coasts have thought themselves the entirety, but in reality, things are rather equalized. If anything, the South (Sun Belt) is the central position in things.

Your own post shows what I’m talking. About though they are breaking out the northeast seperate and as best I can tell the south includes texas, Florida and the Carolina’s.
If you organize that by what I said the Coasts + Texas it’s more skewed. Especially when you look at the overal home values by those regions vs the Midwest.
of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.

Anyone who finds this "news" should immediately grab the nearest hammer and bludgeon themselves until common sense returns!
Supplementing oil shortage/prices via pumping the national STRATEGIC Reserves dry, a bad thing, DUH! It's called a RESERVE for a reason.
The true "CRASH" at hand is the average IQ in this country. When one pumps out from the Strategic Reserve, it means that RESERVE will need to get re-filled. If a person does NOTHING to address the shortage in the supply flow, it will make MAJOR issues because (a) that flow of reserve oil into system ends AND (b) the Reserve starts ALSO sucking from the supply, making the pain point even MORE painful.
This is why everyone with half a wit smacked there forehead when this STUPIDITY started, because it's an obvious disaster incubator.
of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.

Anyone who finds this "news" should immediately grab the nearest hammer and bludgeon themselves until common sense returns!
Supplementing oil shortage/prices via pumping the national STRATEGIC Reserves dry, a bad thing, DUH! It's called a RESERVE for a reason.
The true "CRASH" at hand is the average IQ in this country. When one pumps out from the Strategic Reserve, it means that RESERVE will need to get re-filled. If a person does NOTHING to address the shortage in the supply flow, it will make MAJOR issues because (a) that flow of reserve oil into system ends AND (b) the Reserve starts ALSO sucking from the supply, making the pain point even MORE painful.
This is why everyone with half a wit smacked there forehead when this STUPIDITY started, because it's an obvious disaster incubator.
Agreed, we all knew this was a bad idea and was politically motivated. He was trying to lower gas by $0.10 a gallon to gain favor. I hadn't seen a lot of info about the impact of draining the SPR until recently. I don't think it had been mentioned in this thread until @Account Closed brought it up last week, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll see how this plays out but it has the potential to get very ugly.
Yes it could. Most of the people in the country don't realize that the oil in the SPR was already bought and paid for. Releasing it now to gain a few political points is not only stupid but crooked. We are all paying $$ for this political stunt. The SPR is supposed to be 'reserved' for emergencies only and now it is drained to record levels, which cost us $billions$. All for someone's political gain...which won't work anyway. Brilliant!
Yes it could. Most of the people in the country don't realize that the oil in the SPR was already bought and paid for. Releasing it now to gain a few political points is not only stupid but crooked. We are all paying $$ for this political stunt. The SPR is supposed to be 'reserved' for emergencies only and now it is drained to record levels, which cost us $billions$. All for someone's political gain...which won't work anyway. Brilliant!
The guy sitting on the left side of the chair is in panic mode now becoz based on recent political sentiment, they don't have favorable outcome in the midterm election.
Hence they took out the 'oil reserves' and started shorting the dollar last friday to make the stock market looks great again lol
Yes it could. Most of the people in the country don't realize that the oil in the SPR was already bought and paid for. Releasing it now to gain a few political points is not only stupid but crooked. We are all paying $$ for this political stunt. The SPR is supposed to be 'reserved' for emergencies only and now it is drained to record levels, which cost us $billions$. All for someone's political gain...which won't work anyway. Brilliant!
The guy sitting on the left side of the chair is in panic mode now becoz based on recent political sentiment, they don't have favorable outcome in the midterm election.
Hence they took out the 'oil reserves' and started shorting the dollar last friday to make the stock market looks great again lol
And what is really scary is how few people have a clue....
Yes it could. Most of the people in the country don't realize that the oil in the SPR was already bought and paid for. Releasing it now to gain a few political points is not only stupid but crooked. We are all paying $$ for this political stunt. The SPR is supposed to be 'reserved' for emergencies only and now it is drained to record levels, which cost us $billions$. All for someone's political gain...which won't work anyway. Brilliant!
The guy sitting on the left side of the chair is in panic mode now becoz based on recent political sentiment, they don't have favorable outcome in the midterm election.
Hence they took out the 'oil reserves' and started shorting the dollar last friday to make the stock market looks great again lol
And what is really scary is how few people have a clue....
@Bruce Woodruff: Your comment: "And what is really scary is how few people have a clue...."
That's the most important insight made.
of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.

Anyone who finds this "news" should immediately grab the nearest hammer and bludgeon themselves until common sense returns!
Supplementing oil shortage/prices via pumping the national STRATEGIC Reserves dry, a bad thing, DUH! It's called a RESERVE for a reason.
The true "CRASH" at hand is the average IQ in this country. When one pumps out from the Strategic Reserve, it means that RESERVE will need to get re-filled. If a person does NOTHING to address the shortage in the supply flow, it will make MAJOR issues because (a) that flow of reserve oil into system ends AND (b) the Reserve starts ALSO sucking from the supply, making the pain point even MORE painful.
This is why everyone with half a wit smacked there forehead when this STUPIDITY started, because it's an obvious disaster incubator.
Agreed, we all knew this was a bad idea and was politically motivated. He was trying to lower gas by $0.10 a gallon to gain favor. I hadn't seen a lot of info about the impact of draining the SPR until recently. I don't think it had been mentioned in this thread until @Account Closed brought it up last week, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll see how this plays out but it has the potential to get very ugly.
Looking for a real "WTF" moment?
Look up the Dakota Access Pipeline. We had a done-deal contract with Canada, to deliver 500,000 barrels of oil per DAY, for TWENTY YEARS, via the Dakota Access Pipeline. Bo-Bo-Branden canceled that contract. And guess what, very shortly after fuel prices started running away and so then came the order of kicking out oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve.
Now if you follow the math of it all, turns out it's nearly a PERFECT 1:1 ratios of what's being distributed from Strategic Reserve, from what Bo-Bo canceled with Canada.
What-In-The-F*#%!
It's a shell game! It's nothing green, because only thing that changed is source. BUT, now forward looking there talking about importing from freaking Venezuela! WTF!
Check the math, it's way too close to be a coincidence.
of course yes, Been predicting that as well with much accuracy. There's no randomness in this world dude, everything has been pre-planned.

Anyone who finds this "news" should immediately grab the nearest hammer and bludgeon themselves until common sense returns!
Supplementing oil shortage/prices via pumping the national STRATEGIC Reserves dry, a bad thing, DUH! It's called a RESERVE for a reason.
The true "CRASH" at hand is the average IQ in this country. When one pumps out from the Strategic Reserve, it means that RESERVE will need to get re-filled. If a person does NOTHING to address the shortage in the supply flow, it will make MAJOR issues because (a) that flow of reserve oil into system ends AND (b) the Reserve starts ALSO sucking from the supply, making the pain point even MORE painful.
This is why everyone with half a wit smacked there forehead when this STUPIDITY started, because it's an obvious disaster incubator.
Agreed, we all knew this was a bad idea and was politically motivated. He was trying to lower gas by $0.10 a gallon to gain favor. I hadn't seen a lot of info about the impact of draining the SPR until recently. I don't think it had been mentioned in this thread until @Account Closed brought it up last week, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll see how this plays out but it has the potential to get very ugly.
Looking for a real "WTF" moment?
Look up the Dakota Access Pipeline. We had a done-deal contract with Canada, to deliver 500,000 barrels of oil per DAY, for TWENTY YEARS, via the Dakota Access Pipeline. Bo-Bo-Branden canceled that contract. And guess what, very shortly after fuel prices started running away and so then came the order of kicking out oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve.
Now if you follow the math of it all, turns out it's nearly a PERFECT 1:1 ratios of what's being distributed from Strategic Reserve, from what Bo-Bo canceled with Canada.
What-In-The-F*#%!
It's a shell game! It's nothing green, because only thing that changed is source. BUT, now forward looking there talking about importing from freaking Venezuela! WTF!
Check the math, it's way too close to be a coincidence.
Not to mention, the eff U from OPEC. It's what happens when...well, gonna respect the rules and won't go there!
Yes it could. Most of the people in the country don't realize that the oil in the SPR was already bought and paid for. Releasing it now to gain a few political points is not only stupid but crooked. We are all paying $$ for this political stunt. The SPR is supposed to be 'reserved' for emergencies only and now it is drained to record levels, which cost us $billions$. All for someone's political gain...which won't work anyway. Brilliant!
Hey, but on the upside, a bunch of whackos that have nothing better to do than to toss soup unto paintings or have friends that consist only of trees and wildlife are a bit happier.
It's a shell game! It's nothing green, because only thing that changed is source. BUT, now forward looking there talking about importing from freaking Venezuela! WTF!
Check the math, it's way too close to be a coincidence.
Not to mention, the eff U from OPEC. It's what happens when...well, gonna respect the rules and won't go there!
I will be less political here but needs to be very direct as well.
It sounds strange but as matter of fact, it seems quite transparent the Saud family prefers the previous administration. Hence their rejection to cooperate with US today (to increase oil production) can be viewed from that trajectory. Even the Israeli gov. does not want to cooperate with Ukraine deal as well. Very strange.
Lot of leader outside the US today seems really getting tired of this current admin. as it seems they don't give consideration to the stabilization of the world.
Even Macron is criticizing why they need to pay gas import 2-3x more to US.
Straight to the point: the US has much less friends now in international space.
"Bump"
1840 posts, 2k here we come. We can do this guys.
It appears the buyers have not gone away but affordability has dropped significantly, hence house prices may have to drop too. For context assuming 15% down payment;
1 year ago:interest 3%, PP $450k, monthly payment $1613
Today: interest 6.5%, PP $300k, monthly mortgage $1612
In other words a homeowner who has $1600 can only afford a $300k house now, last year they could buy a $450K house. That is a 33% decrease in purchase power! So many stay away and home prices have to keep dropping, how low? We shall see.
Meanwhile we have a bunch of people we can all rent to: https://fortune.com/2022/10/24...
@Michael Wooldridge My brother and his wife fit that category. They have realized:
A: affordable housing in decent areas doesn't exist right now.
B: My brother is working part time to become a pilot, his wife has started her career, meaning it makes NO SENSE to buy.
C: Renting is the best and most flexible option (and I'm all for it).
D: Happy wife/happy life > homeownership
@Michael Wooldridge My brother and his wife fit that category. They have realized:
A: affordable housing in decent areas doesn't exist right now.
B: My brother is working part time to become a pilot, his wife has started her career, meaning it makes NO SENSE to buy.
C: Renting is the best and most flexible option (and I'm all for it).
D: Happy wife/happy life > homeownership
@Michael Wooldridge My brother and his wife fit that category. They have realized:
A: affordable housing in decent areas doesn't exist right now.
B: My brother is working part time to become a pilot, his wife has started her career, meaning it makes NO SENSE to buy.
C: Renting is the best and most flexible option (and I'm all for it).
D: Happy wife/happy life > homeownership
And that also with an IRR of 5%-6%,
with a 7% interest rate, the amortization is super bad, it took 20 years just to reach half of the equity curve.
Renting is better especially in low cap-rate market. We have a city that has a negative cap rate now, and I checked the variance of sold prices in last 12 months are the same like in 2017-2021 purchase, seems like housing has ceiling price too.

watch those food price keep exploding also. we shop at wholefoods (yeah, yeah, whole paycheck jokes never get old, esp. right now), but the dairy prices exploded even more in the past couple of weeks. it's gonna keep getting uglier for the foreseeable future. the scariest thing about grandpa is that it's not him calling the shots. let that sink in.
Agreed, food prices keep getting worse.
I've been telling that to @Carlos Ptriawan based on real-life experiences, but he's been citing data that shows food prices are coming down.
Agreed, food prices keep getting worse.
I've been telling that to @Carlos Ptriawan based on real-life experiences, but he's been citing data that shows food prices are coming down.
Depends on where you buy. If you buy meat at Jetro/Restaurant Depot ; beef/chicken is between 1 or 2 dollar per pound :) lol
Again real-life experience is different from where to buy stuff. You can't compare Whole Food with Grocery Outlet.
Agreed, food prices keep getting worse.
I've been telling that to @Carlos Ptriawan based on real-life experiences, but he's been citing data that shows food prices are coming down.
Depends on where you buy. If you buy meat at Jetro/Restaurant Depot ; beef/chicken is between 1 or 2 dollar per pound :) lol
Again real-life experience is different from where to buy stuff. You can't compare Whole Food with Grocery Outlet.
Agreed, food prices keep getting worse.
I've been telling that to @Carlos Ptriawan based on real-life experiences, but he's been citing data that shows food prices are coming down.
Depends on where you buy. If you buy meat at Jetro/Restaurant Depot ; beef/chicken is between 1 or 2 dollar per pound :) lol
Again real-life experience is different from where to buy stuff. You can't compare Whole Food with Grocery Outlet.
I guess if in the future food price keeps rising (which I think would not happen), folks in the mainland US may follow what Hawaiian did for a loooong time as price there already inflated since long time ago: go farming/hunting and do a lot more bartering between neighbor. That way society doesn't depend on consumerism too much.