North Atlanta Real Estate Market Update

North Atlanta Real Estate Market Update

Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes

That Atlanta market peaked on July 2007 and bottomed in March of 2012. We have since made a complete "V" shaped recovery since March 2012. At this significant bottom, and retail real estate were trading at 1996 prices. Today we are at 2004 prices entering 2005 prices. YTD Atlanta real estate market is up 18.75%. If the last 12 month appreciation in Atlanta repeats itself in the next 12 months, homes in Atlanta will be trading at prices at the peak of the market before the crash in July of 2007.

I spend a lot of time studying demographic changes and Atlanta and Los Angeles are in a 15 year cycle. These two markets are very interesting to me becuase of this cycle. 2011 is 1996 and the demographics of 01/01/2014 of the north side of Atlanta will look much like the demographics of orange county, CA of 01/01/1999.

The north side of Atlanta is the new Orange County.

Irvine - Johns Creek
Alpharetta - Tustin
Milton - Coto de Caza
Suwanee - Foot Hill Ranch

In 1990, Irvine ethnic demographics looked like this:

white 68.8%, black 1.8%, Asian, 22.1%, hispanic 6.8% - 1990
white 61.1% black 1.4% Asian 29.8%, hispanic 7.4% - 2000

In 2010, Johns Creek's ethnic demographics looks like this:
white 63.45% black 8.8% Asian 23.36%, hispanic: 5%

In 2013, 30% of Johns Creek is now made up of Asian households

Johns Creek's Asian population grew from 13% to 23% within 3 years period of time.

All of Johns Creek High Schools are among the best of Georgia:
Northview, JC High, and Chattahoochee

All of Irvine High Schools are among the best of California:
Uni high, Northwood, Woodbridge, and Irvine High

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Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
12y

@James Park

I do assume that all your figures are again based on those sub-suburbs and not really on Atlanta?

I apologize, I'm not trying to attack you. I'm German and very straight forward and I'm not very good at being subtle ;-).

It's just that someone reading this in another state, they will think that your numbers pertain to Atlanta - and they do not. The northern far out suburbs are completely different from the Atlanta market. And they've also gone through different cycles. For example, Atlanta had a major slump in '99-'02, due to overbuilding for the Olympics. Even thought he Olympics were in '96, there were many condo projects on the books that came to fruition after '96.

Your area OTP is money and soccer moms and families. Whereas ITP has many different neighborhoods that each have their own values and cycles. Some have become hip and cool in the past few years (Midtown). Some have lost their hipness (Buckhead). You have a good number of revitalizations (Kirkwood, Cabbagetown, Reynoldstown, Edgewood, East Lake etc) and some that have stayed lower income neighbohoods. Many of the revitalized areas are singles or couples, straight or gay.

So, to be honest, it sort of bothers me, if you call your area 'Atlanta' , when it is really more suburbs of Atlanta suburbs. People from the suburbs tend to want to claim 'Atlanta' when it's convenient, but want to have nothing to do with us otherwise.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Peachtree Corners, GA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @James Park Had to laugh earlier today when I was sitting in the Starbucks at State Bridge and 141 next to a large table of Korean American women while reading your comments about affluent Asians in the area.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Rick Baggenstoss wrote: 
    I like your analysis, but I'd add you can make numbers say a lot of things. I'd point out that you're not adjusting growth based upon square miles. Population growth in big states like Texas or Alaska would be easily absorbed. Where as 7.4% growth in DC is enormous. The growth in MD and MA would also be understated.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    @Cal C,
    That is because the Starbucks at State Bridge and 141 is located in the dark red zone. I hope you weren't staring at them for a long time while sipping on your doubleshot chocolate frappuccino with a big smile on your face.


    Originally posted by @Cal C.:

    @James Park Had to laugh earlier today when I was sitting in the Starbucks at State Bridge and 141 next to a large table of Korean American women while reading your comments about affluent Asians in the area.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Texas's population grew 4,293,741 between 2000 - 2010. From 2010 - 2020, I estimate the population to grow by almost a million more from the last decade at 5,210,528. We are going to see higher numbers (population inflow) from the last decade for Texas, California, and Florida while North Carolina and Georgia's population seems to be stabilizing from 2000 - 2010 inflow numbers.

    What is interesting is that these five states: Texas, California, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia is capturing more than 50% of the population growth in the United States.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Mercedes Benz announced today that they moving their headquarters to Atlanta from New Jersey. They were considering between the research triangle, NC and Atlanta. This is a big win for us. Porche has also relocated its headquarters to Atlanta in 2013.

    http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=648

    http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/blog/atlantech/...

  • Real Estate Consultant · Alpharetta, GA · Member since 2014 · 661 posts · 400 votes
    11y

    @James Park

    So are they moving to Atl or NC I am a little confusend.

    Hopefully, Atl:)

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Mercedes Benz is coming to Atlanta!

    Here's another Bay Area based CRM company Sales Force expanding to Atlanta.

    http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/blog/atlantech/2015/01/salesforce-moves-forward-on-buckhead-office.html

  • Investor · Canton, GA · Member since 2014 · 728 posts · 500 votes
    11y
    I now have mixed feelings about all this. We bought at the bottom of the market on the edge of the DFW area. We will be looking to relocate after our son finishes the school year. I will be working in Alpharetta. It definitely looks like a case of having to buy much more house than needed to get into the public schools of Alpharetta or southern Forsyth county. This would put a kink in my plans to live below our means to have funds for REI. I have been watching this market for a few moths and it seems over blown. Cherokee county and private school maybe? Hell, not sure anymore. I know everyone needs a place to live, but this is sure not looking like a good time to buy in that area.
  • Developer · Decatur, GA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Tony Gunter Alpharetta is comparable to Round Rock ... a solid suburb becoming a significant city unto itself.  However, it has a high dependency on tech.  Move to the area, rent, invest, and the deals will reveal themselves.

    Personally, I'd look at the older, 90's homes in Roswell and renovate one of them.  You're then adding value and getting a better deal ... most importantly, you're going against traffic to Alpharetta.

    Another option is to go all the way to Cumming ... the next Alpharetta.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    I am surprised to see how much auto industry is moving to Atlanta. 

    First Porsche moves its headquarters to Atlanta in 2012 : Porsche breaks ground on its new $100M headquarters in Atlanta.

    http://www.11alive.com/story/local/2012/11/27/1910...

    Then Mercedes Benz follows Porsche by officially announcing that they are moving its headquarters from NJ to Atlanta in 2015. I would not be suprised if BMW and Volks Wagon also follows Mercedes to move their HQ from NJ to Atlanta.
    http://www.autoblog.com/2015/01/06/mercedes-benz-u...

    Another interesting trend I am see is that Hollywood is starting to move to Atlanta.

    “Atlanta is the new Hollywood”: Influx of film and TV production boosts economy, attracts actors - See more at: http://www.artsatl.com/2013/06/new-local-film-tv-a...

    Do you know that the third most spoken language in metro Atlanta after English and Spanish is Korean?

    Something in the air feels like Atlanta is turning into a New LA.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Index Appreciation / Depreciation Data: Metro Atlanta and Los Angeles

    In 2014 (Jan - Dec), Atlanta Metro home price index has risen 5.2% while LA metro home prices have risen 5.7. Notice how the appreciation numbers between LA and Atlanta are similar after the crash in 2012, 2013, and 2014. My belief is that what happened in the past is not indicative of the futue in both Atlanta and LA market. For example, the LA market can see negative numbers while we see positive numbers in Atlanta similar to that of 1991 - 1992.

    In determining the valuation of a metro, I rely on the HI ratio which is:

    HI ratio : median home price / median house income

    The HI ratio in an "A" neighborhood in Orange County is more than double that of an "A" neighborhood in North Atlanta metro.

    Conclusion: I believe that past performance will not dictate the future. I also see that real estate markets will start to decouple in the years ahead. Short term, I see deflation, and Long term I see inflation.

    Emerging City:                          Developed City:


    THE TOP 10 PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOLS IN GEORGIA

    Among the best high school clusters in the GA (Class "A" Neighborhoods), real estate prices in these school zones have beat the Atlanta metro index appreciation of 5.2% by more than 3% in 2014. The median income demographics of North Fulton and South Forsyth is $100K+.

    Johns Creek City Limits: Northview HS ( rank 3) & Johns Creek HS ( rank 4).
    South Forsyth: Lambert High School (rank 9)
    East Cobb: Walton HS. (rank 7)
    North Gwinnett: Buford HS (rank 8) & North Gwinnett HS (rank 10)

  • Investor · Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2015 · 21 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @James Park 

     Your information is really helpful, and the comparison between northern Atlanta and Orange County is interesting. I think your comments on demographic, school ranking, income, HI ratio, population growth ratio, and job grow ratio are all sound arguments. But don't forget there is a big geographic difference between these two places, Cali being on the west coast which is much closer to Asia. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    James, I appreciate your rei wisdom. I am looking at some local Asian influenced markets. Do you have any take on Korean influences in SoCal or generally? One area I like is 16.2% Asian, of that 98% are Korean. It seems when they buy, that property is forever off the market. Thus shrinking supply and creating an ever increasing shortage of homes for sale in that immediate area. Is this part accurate or do you have stats comparing Asian home ownership duration vs non Asians? Gracias senor:)

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y
  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Forsyth County: 

    Overall Rank : 36 of 3135 : Ranks 36th better counties to live among 3135.
    Median Income: $87,585
    College Education: 43.3%
    Unemployment: 6.8%
    Disability: 0.3%
    Life expectancy: 80.9 years
    Obesity: ... View more 28%

    Current HI ratio 2.98

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/upshot/where-are...

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Atlanta once again tops list as America’s No. 1 moving destination.

    The top 10 destinations for American movers:

    1. 1. Atlanta
    2. 2. Tampa/Sarasota, Fla.
    3. 3. Dallas/Fort Worth
    4. 4. Phoenix
    5. 5. Orlando, Fla.
    6. 6. Seattle
    7. 7. Denver
    8. 8. Houston
    9. 9. Chicago
    10. 10. Las Vegas

    http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2015/02/04/atlanta-named-america-s-no-1-moving-destination.html

  • Investor · Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2015 · 21 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @James Park 

    I've been looking at your area for a few months actually. I flew to Atlanta last month and visited 10+ properties in Duluth, Johns Creek, and Alpharetta. Since the price there has gone up quite a bit in the last 3 years, can you still find 1% rent/purchase ratio SFH in the A school areas you mentioned? If I buy a $200k SFH in those areas and keep it for 5-7 years, what kind of price appreciation can I expect?

  • Real Estate Agent · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2012 · 134 posts · 22 votes
    11y

    @Wei Peng You might be able to houses meeting your 1% rent/purchase ratio but not off MLS, probably need to contact some wholesalers. Regarding appreciation, who knows...

    What part of TO are you from?  If I had to take a wild guess - Richmond Hill/Markham/Aurora?  How's the GTA single family market?  I've been casually keeping an eye on it and am waiting for the bubble to pop...  

  • Investor · Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2015 · 21 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @Jay Y. I am from Oakville. The SFH market in GTA is still going up which scares me too. I just heard a news from the radio this morning saying that the Canadian household debt ratio is among the highest in the world.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y
  • Investor · Irvine, CA · Member since 2014 · 53 posts · 27 votes
    11y

    That is really great analysis @James Park. I've been looking at Duluth and Alpharetta for a while now, but haven't jumped in yet. I'm mostly looking at the A areas with good schools and incomes that can also generate great cash flow at the same time. Not sure if I can still find such properties from MLS. I think both these areas have great potential though. 

  • Investor · Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2015 · 21 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @James Park I think Duluth probably has a stronger rental market due to its proximity to the ring compared to the other 2 cities. I saw better cash flow in Duluth too. But there are no A schools in Duluth which would probably affect its long term price appreciation.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    11y

    Size compared to Downtowns

    Central Business District      Acres

    Austin                                    1028
    Buckhead Atlanta                  1260
    Charlotte                                255
    Downtown Atlanta                 918
    Johns Creek                          818
    Midtown Atlanta                    822
    Oklahoma City                      1406
    Pittsburgh                             411
    St. Louis                               767

    Alpharetta      44% residential   56% commercial 
    Johns Creek  80% residential   20% commercial

    In the next 20 years Johns Creek plans to have 60% residential 40% commercial mix.

    Johns Creek's New Business District.

    Press Release:

    The city is working with a team led by Urban Design Associates, is developing a master plan to transform a 728-acre area centered around Technology Park into a “world-class new central business district” for Johns Creek.

    The city property tax digest is 81 percent residential and 19 percent commercial. That means homeowners are paying the lion’s share of the Johns Creek’s taxes. To better balance the tax burden and create a sustainable economic future, city officials and business leaders want to redevelop The District to grow businesses and jobs in Johns Creek. The additional tax revenue would allow the city to invest in quality of life and improvement projects throughout Johns Creek.

    The design team wants to learn aspirations for the area’s future. It will form the basis for plans for the area over the next 20 years.

    “We’re looking at The District as a blank slate,” said Mayor Mike Bodker. “We want people to tell us what we need in Johns Creek. This is a major, long-term project, and now is the time for people to jump in and help us shape what it’s going to look like. Input may be general or specific. At this point, there are no bad ideas. We want to hear them all.”

    Additional public meetings are planned for the week of April 13. On April 15 and 16, the consultant team will summarize what they learned and begin developing design concepts to share with the community.

    http://patch.com/georgia/johnscreek/residents-invi...

  • Phil WorkmanPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · Buford, GA · Member since 2014 · 50 posts · 5 votes
    11y

    @james park great thread I sent you an pm. Can't wait to hear from you!

  • Real Estate Investor · Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2014 · 17 posts · 2 votes
    11y

    Great thread, James, very informative. Following.

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