North Atlanta Real Estate Market Update

North Atlanta Real Estate Market Update

Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes

That Atlanta market peaked on July 2007 and bottomed in March of 2012. We have since made a complete "V" shaped recovery since March 2012. At this significant bottom, and retail real estate were trading at 1996 prices. Today we are at 2004 prices entering 2005 prices. YTD Atlanta real estate market is up 18.75%. If the last 12 month appreciation in Atlanta repeats itself in the next 12 months, homes in Atlanta will be trading at prices at the peak of the market before the crash in July of 2007.

I spend a lot of time studying demographic changes and Atlanta and Los Angeles are in a 15 year cycle. These two markets are very interesting to me becuase of this cycle. 2011 is 1996 and the demographics of 01/01/2014 of the north side of Atlanta will look much like the demographics of orange county, CA of 01/01/1999.

The north side of Atlanta is the new Orange County.

Irvine - Johns Creek
Alpharetta - Tustin
Milton - Coto de Caza
Suwanee - Foot Hill Ranch

In 1990, Irvine ethnic demographics looked like this:

white 68.8%, black 1.8%, Asian, 22.1%, hispanic 6.8% - 1990
white 61.1% black 1.4% Asian 29.8%, hispanic 7.4% - 2000

In 2010, Johns Creek's ethnic demographics looks like this:
white 63.45% black 8.8% Asian 23.36%, hispanic: 5%

In 2013, 30% of Johns Creek is now made up of Asian households

Johns Creek's Asian population grew from 13% to 23% within 3 years period of time.

All of Johns Creek High Schools are among the best of Georgia:
Northview, JC High, and Chattahoochee

All of Irvine High Schools are among the best of California:
Uni high, Northwood, Woodbridge, and Irvine High

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Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
12y

@James Park

I do assume that all your figures are again based on those sub-suburbs and not really on Atlanta?

I apologize, I'm not trying to attack you. I'm German and very straight forward and I'm not very good at being subtle ;-).

It's just that someone reading this in another state, they will think that your numbers pertain to Atlanta - and they do not. The northern far out suburbs are completely different from the Atlanta market. And they've also gone through different cycles. For example, Atlanta had a major slump in '99-'02, due to overbuilding for the Olympics. Even thought he Olympics were in '96, there were many condo projects on the books that came to fruition after '96.

Your area OTP is money and soccer moms and families. Whereas ITP has many different neighborhoods that each have their own values and cycles. Some have become hip and cool in the past few years (Midtown). Some have lost their hipness (Buckhead). You have a good number of revitalizations (Kirkwood, Cabbagetown, Reynoldstown, Edgewood, East Lake etc) and some that have stayed lower income neighbohoods. Many of the revitalized areas are singles or couples, straight or gay.

So, to be honest, it sort of bothers me, if you call your area 'Atlanta' , when it is really more suburbs of Atlanta suburbs. People from the suburbs tend to want to claim 'Atlanta' when it's convenient, but want to have nothing to do with us otherwise.

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  • Atlanta, GA · Member since 2017 · 44 posts · 21 votes
    8y

    @James Park thanks for the update. HQ2 will make a huge splash in Atl if it comes true.

    What might not be obvious is that even if they don't come to Atl, we should see the same growth just at a slower rate. The software/tech scene is blowing up ITP; I actually work for a growing software startup in Midtown. There are also smaller tech companies spread around OTP. I think just the fact that HQ2 is favoring Atl alone strongly legitimizes the area for tech companies. 

    Even if they do not choose Atl, the reputation of the city as a tech hub will draw in a bigger presence for the tech companies that are already here or deciding to migrate. I would associate Raleigh's appreciation with the tech boom in that area too. RTP (Research Triangle Park) has a high concentration of engineering/software and should see similar growth!

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    8y

    Year over Year from March 2017 - March 2018, the Atlanta housing index appreciated 6.2% which is about the national average. The Atlanta market is now 4.9% above the last peak of July 2007. The Los Angeles housing index appreciated 8.1%, but still lags behind Atlanta from peak to current declines at 2.3%. The top performing housing market is Nashville, TN with an appreciation of 8.8% year over year and 40% above the last peak date of Jan 2008. Below are the chart comparisons between the Atlanta and Los Angeles Index.

  • Real Estate Agent · Marietta, GA · Member since 2018 · 27 posts · 8 votes
    8y

    Thank you @James Park for taking the time to send this updated info to us.

    Best Wishes In All Your Endeavors!

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    8y

    @Account Closed, Thank you.  

    It appears that the Atlanta market is keeping pace with the overall national housing marketing: Comp 10 and 20. I will try to update more often.

  • Investor · Atlanta GA | Marietta GA | Greenville SC | Spartanburg SC · Member since 2014 · 202 posts · 60 votes
    8y

    Good stuff James. Thanks for posting. What resources are you using to assemble this data? I particularly like the spreadsheet showing peaks and lows. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    8y

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYDrR3G8J4U

    Video of skyline of Buckhead. Buckhead is an affluent uptown commercial and residential district of Atlanta, Georgia, comprising approximately the northernmost fifth of the city.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    8y

    Atlanta declared third fastest-growing metro area in the nation.

    If it feels like Atlanta is getting more crowded, it is.
    Between 2016 and 2017, metro Atlanta packed on nearly 90,000 new residents, bringing the total population in the region to an estimated 5,884,736 people.

    The statistics, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, mean Atlanta saw the third highest population gain of any metro in the country, behind Dallas and Houston respectively—cities with larger overall populations. The numbers put Atlanta’s growth well ahead of Washington, D.C., which has a larger overall population than Atlanta, too. For now.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Norcross, GA · Member since 2018 · 19 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    @Michaela G. Atlanta now encompasses 12 counties in its metro area, so that’s a consideration in market reports.
  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Merri Grace McLeroy:
    @Michaela G. Atlanta now encompasses 12 counties in its metro area, so that’s a consideration in market reports.

     Why ate you bringing me in here? The Op initially called this thread to be about Atlanta,  when he only wrote about Johns creek,  which is a suburb in the north.  He has since renamed the subject line to North Atlanta to make it better fitting. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    4y

    Forsyth County Ranks #16 Wealthiest County in the United States NOT taking into account Cost of Living.

  • Real Estate Broker · Johns Creek, GA · Member since 2009 · 870 posts · 664 votes
    4y



    The average purchase price in Forsyth County was 4.7% above asking just 3 months ago, and now we are right at listing price. Seems like the market is in its early stage of cooling off. 




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