Sea Level Rise & New Climate Assessment
Real Estate Agent · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Article on key findings of recently released National Climate Assessment:
http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2014/05/12/2national-climate-assessment-key-findings-part-1/
Interesting map on U.S. coastal areas and projected sea level rise:
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/
Just wondering if anyone is taking climate change issues into account, even as a minor factor, when deciding where to invest? Came across this after someone told me my current target area, Virginia Beach, was sinking, so exacerbating any sea level rise. Turns out, it's like the 2nd most vulnerable location (after New Orleans) in the U.S. I realize 2040 or 2060 is a long way off, but we feel this may be a valid argument as our goal is to leave our property to our children. It would be frustrating to invest in rentals that are literally underwater at about the time they are paid in full.
Back in the 1970s, "all" the scientists were insisting we were heading into "global cooling" and entering a new ice age. Now, they're "all" saying it's global warming. Even though global temperatures have been dropping. Frankly, I think their egos are overinflated.
The earth has had large temperature fluctuations and changes in climates throughout history. About 5,000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was lush, fertile farmland. There are documented periods in Great Britain when they were, and then weren't, able to grow grapes for wine - it keeps going back and forth. Anyone who has taken a thermodynamics class will understand when I refer to the oceans as a "heat sink" - that is, they absorb excess heat when the atmosphere is hot and give off heat when the atmosphere is cool. The earth is capable of balancing these things, which is why organisms have been able to survive and adapt to the slow, mild changes that do occur. To think that anything we're doing is significantly impacting the climates on earth is, in my opinion, arrogant. We simply aren't that powerful. We are a drop in the bucket.
All that is stated in order to preface my opinion: I won't buy anything that is very close to an ocean that gets hurricanes, but not because of global warming. It's simply because I don't want the risk related to the possible damage and I don't want to pay for that insurance. So, it's a personal investment/risk assessment choice.
No, because while I happen to believe that the planet is warming, I do not believe that the various models are accurate enough to say exactly what the impacts will be, and most of the specific predictions have so far been wrong.
Well, there is an entire continent of ice, in fact two. I wish my great grandchildren could see the world I had when I was kid, probably won't happen. :(
Sigh. No political comments, either, please. Politics in the Off Topic forum only, please.
Leon, I do like your answer, especially "commit to owning it for that period of time with no regrets" statement and will likely incorporate it into our philosophy in the future. We are definitely focused on long-term holdings, though, as a main goal of ours is to use them for retirement income then leave them to our children. This is why the 2040 or 2060 potentials concerned me as I assumed this was a century or more away before major issues develop but looks like, at least in Virginia Beach, they are planning for issues starting much earlier than that.
Great reply
@Chris Christiansonundefined
I know this topic is many years old.
I have not read a lot about "Sea Level Rise & New Climate Assessment". But I do know that there are lots of areas in coastal NC where saltwater intrusion has negatively impacted land productivity and value over the past generations. The TAM (Total Available Market) in NC I see is in the 100,000 acre ballpark but our current targets are way smaller (multiple 30-100 acre parcels) The play, for me, is to put the abandoned/unproductive saline land into 'rehab' then back into production. The generic term I'm using is 'mitigating saltwater intrusion' and I'm working to get some resources (some are county, state, federal) to help with the technical side of the solution. Most prevalent solutions seem to be the parallel passive ditch but apparently there are some pump solutions that are effective. I just don't have numbers yet. I have a meeting with an appraiser and a farmer next week, so maybe I'll get some answers. It appears more involved than just putting in a 4"-6" trash pump at this point because the soil saline content has become too high. We have a little 3" pump we rotate on parcels in Columbus county where groundwater polution (farm runoff) seems to be more a problem than saline. But I don't monitor it today. I guess I should start. I'd like to get a solution for both: surface water quality and saline mitigation. I'm shooting for a short term, 25-30 years, play which would be 1 generation of loblolly and hopefully my 'final draw' if I live that long;) Just hate to mitigate, plant, and have it fail mid life.@Chris Martin I know it has been a year, but your post of what you were doing a year ago and the fact that Hurricane Florence has causing unbelievable damage has me wondering and hoping you enacted your plan. Comments from 4 years ago are all ringing true faster and faster. With the flood insurance program itself underwater, and the flood plain maps beginning to become inaccurate due to accelerating changes in the environment (however one believes it came to be) has been set that if I am going to invest that climate change potential and weather risks must be factored into every decision no matter the timeframe.
Climate change and technology are changing the game for every industry. How people adapt must a mastery of the fundamentals in my opinion will determine who will come out on top.
That last sentence was fairly dramatic, but reading comments from 4 years ago and watching Hurricane Florence dump 40+ inches of rain this year and Harvey 40+ last year has me terrified for the superstorms of 2020.
@Chris Martin I know it has been a year, but your post of what you were doing a year ago and the fact that Hurricane Florence has causing unbelievable damage has me wondering and hoping you enacted your plan. Comments from 4 years ago are all ringing true faster and faster. With the flood insurance program itself underwater, and the flood plain maps beginning to become inaccurate due to accelerating changes in the environment (however one believes it came to be) has been set that if I am going to invest that climate change potential and weather risks must be factored into every decision no matter the timeframe.
Climate change and technology are changing the game for every industry. How people adapt must a mastery of the fundamentals in my opinion will determine who will come out on top.
That last sentence was fairly dramatic, but reading comments from 4 years ago and watching Hurricane Florence dump 40+ inches of rain this year and Harvey 40+ last year has me terrified for the superstorms of 2020.
Just getting back from out of town attending flooded property.
Responding to your last paragraph first, a 25-30 year payoff timeframe is great when you are young and more problematic when you aren't. It's not dramatic, it's reality. I don't expect to be physically or mentally functional when my 2017 vintage loblolly planting is harvest ready and heredity says I won't be here. Reality sometimes sucks.
In a nutshell, I've learned that the problem I described is a tough cookie and there are no easy answers. And there are a lot less answers with cost effective solutions. In the last year my journey went from to general aquaculture, to mitigating water issues (pollution) and and back to adaptable agriculture... then sustainable agriculture. All along a path I didn't really expect initially. The numerous people I've met mostly seem to be 'in the box' thinkers and (IMO) suffer from the . Like pest control in apartments, some farmers have 'spray and pray' mentality that perpetuates the pesticides are your friend attitude.
So....
The Florence death toll is at least 3,405,536. 36 humans, . I own property under 4 feet of pig waste laden water. At some point, I need to invoke the 'defense and say 'what the hell am I doing?' If I jumped 'all in' a year ago on mitigating land, I'd be lucky to be back at square one... but probably be out many tens of thousands... or worse. I am glad I realized years ago that and didn't buy more land.
For me, the good news short story is I have been (for 8+ months) exploring building a prototype aquaponics farm that will be extremely natural resource efficient, USDA Certified Organic, theoretically profitable. Why isn't this more prevalent? Lots of room for failure, but I'd rather do something (hopefully an educated something) and fail than not do anything. My model, if it works, is scalable, sustainable, bankable, and hopefully franchise-able. And it should appeal to the locally grown, CO movement and appeal to millennials which is my target audience(*).
I haven't given up on land/aquaculture remediation/mitigation, but am on kind of a parallel path. I'm open for partnerships with the right people. An potential may be an Opportunity Zone project in Hyde or Tyrrell county or northern Pamlico county where I own land. Capital isn't the problem, the problem is building the right team with the right expertise. Very time consuming and hard to coordinate.
In a nutshell: I see that multiple 'systems' are broken. I hear it when I talk to anyone with a marine biology background or degree, and I've talked to plenty. These wastewater (hog & poultry and coal ash) dumps certainly don't help. I think there is $ in a viable solution, and with AG land still depressed in much of eastern NC there is opportunity.