How to Evaluate the Current Real Estate Market On A Macro-Scale

How to Evaluate the Current Real Estate Market On A Macro-Scale

Shanghai, Shanghai · Member since 2015 · 28 posts · 3 votes

I have been browsing the Forums a little and was looking for some metrics to evaluate and even (to some extent) attempt to predict how a real estate market is doing on a general basis. Here are some metrics I cam up with: (Also, I would love if you guys could extend this list or tell me what metrics should be removed) Here we go...

Housing inventory available in the market (These rates can give you an idea what is currently happening in the market. It is in direct relation to the demand and supply ratio). 

New builds will also give you an indication on whether developers think the markets will perform in the near future or not.

The Credit Markets (How much credit or money is available in the market to be given to borrowers)

Interest rates (These rates will directly influence how willing and able borrowers are to borrow money) 

Disposable Income (Obviously the more disposable income people have the more purchasing power they will have as well. ---See how incomes in relation to CPI or cost of living have changed). 

To give you an indication of what is happening in the future one can have a look at how the REBAR futures are performing.

Inflation rates: If there is high inflation people want to get rid of cash and buy assets. One way to do this is to purchase real estate in order to hedge against a devaluation of the currency. (as long as the returns on real estate are higher than inflation that is).

Then there are social and demographic changes. Think about this, demand is only created if there are people. The less people there are, the smaller the demand, thus decreasing the size of a given market, this includes real estate. 

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Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2015 · 26 posts · 8 votes
11y

@James Warren You kind of mentioned it, but population growth is definitely a good one. 

Another one that might be worth looking at is number of cash sales in an area. The presumption there is that with more cash buyers, there are more investors, and is therefore more likely to be a good area to invest in.

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  • Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2015 · 26 posts · 8 votes
    11y

    @James Warren You kind of mentioned it, but population growth is definitely a good one. 

    Another one that might be worth looking at is number of cash sales in an area. The presumption there is that with more cash buyers, there are more investors, and is therefore more likely to be a good area to invest in.

  • Shanghai, Shanghai · Member since 2015 · 28 posts · 3 votes
    10y

    @Gerrit Stukkie Yea makes sense. Il add that to my list. 

    Thanks for the input

  • Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2015 · 26 posts · 8 votes
    10y

    You're welcome. 

  • Developer · San Diego, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    The oft-referenced official metrics that come to mind are Housing Starts (which you referenced as "New Builds") and breaking down the market into types of housing - apartments vs first-time buyer SFR vs trade-up SFR vs high-end. Different segments can be moving in opposite directions.
  • Jake ThompsonPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Albany, OR · Member since 2015 · 312 posts · 136 votes
    10y

    @James Warren High employment growth is the number one indicator that a market is getting ready to explode (at least that's what I've read, no deals under MY belt to back it up). It is a fact that people will go where the jobs are, and where the people are, the better the market will be for investors. If you buy in these areas you should be looking at lower the vacancy rates, higher rents, etc. So I try to look at recent employment growth first, then population. I also look for crime rate and housing price trends (Buy low, sell high). Hope this helps!

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