I'm older than most-seen this before!!

I'm older than most-seen this before!!

Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes

I've been off the board for awhile- very busy. BUYING!!! Think about this for a minute. TRILLIONS of dollars are being added to the economy, and no additional products added to absorb the dollars being created. In the late 70's-80's I was actually buying properties with 5% down OR LESS using my RE commission. Inflation was literally OVER 15% per year.
Example- 50K property with 2500 down. (47.5 loan) End of year 1 the "value" was 57.5. My 2500 had grown to 10K. Figure the return. Do it multiple times.
I don't see any way the simple supply of dollars is NOT going to create run away inflation, once people do start spending. Thats' where my bet is. Lots of properties able to be bought with little down and no qualifying on owner financing. Don't miss this run up.
DISCLAIMER--- Not all areas are created equal, so be careful. A couple current locations to do your research.
Current special issue of Fortune Mag.
www.forbes.com and then search 25 best housing markets

My primary area is projected # 1 for future appreciation next 12 months in BOTH. 3rd year in a row. You wonder why I continue to buy like crazy? Good luck to all in this market. Rich.

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  • Real Estate Investor · Georgetown, MA · Member since 2008 · 250 posts · 6 votes
    17y

    If interest rates shoot up like the late 70's and mortgages are at 15-20% wouldn't that deflate the RE market further?

    Lets say I can afford 2,000 a month for mortgage payments.

    At 6% I can afford a 335k loan
    At 15% I can afford 160k loan

    That is a major difference.

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    You missed my point. BUY NOW!!!!!! You lock in your owner financed rates and ride the wave. STAY in and don't worry about selling. Enjoy the ride and when it comes out the other end, you can sell, trade or whatever when you want, or just enjoy the new wealth that inflation created for you. If you don't do this, then the inflation takes all your wealth away and your income is worth much less.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    Yes, but...

    When inflation is high, wages rise quickly. So, taking out an ARM makes more sense. Its reasonable to expect that if inflation is running at 10%, then you salary in three years will be 35% higher than it is now. And, a house that's worth $300K now will be worth $400K in three years.

    You can argue that many of the loans made from 2000 to 2006 were based on assumptions put in place during the high inflation period in the late 70's and early 80's. Those loans failed because the underlying assumptions were false.

    So, yes, high rates will tamp down prices, but inflation will drive them up. I can almost guarantee we will see the return of teaser ARMs and negative am loans, just like we had the last time around (70's-80's, I mean.)

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    I'm not trying to take out new loans from institutional lenders. Right now, almost ANY seller is in trouble and will do owner financing for you, imo.

  • Real Estate Investor · North Carolina · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 483 votes
    17y

    Here's what I remember about those high-inflation days --

    Treasuries paying around 18%!

    I'd be sorely tempted to sell some real estate to lock in that easy money.

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    Lets' see???
    18% ordinary return(hopefully tax-free) or 300% return by leveraging downpayment into 3 times return. I like the larger #.

  • Real Estate Investor · North Carolina · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 483 votes
    17y

    Let's see, indeed.......

    18% return taxed Federally but free of state taxes....

    With absolutely NO WORK involved while I sit on some beach.

    I'm with you, Rich, in that I want the larger number, but one day I would like to retire!

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    This is fun. I'm already free of state income taxes(TX) and I do lay on the beach a few months a year(cancun condos)and I have been retired a long time. All because of leverage, high inflation and not playing it safe at 18%. When you receive the 18% int and inflation is 15%, you may break even, at best. Rich.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
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    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y
    I don't agree with this at all. I think taking out an arm loan right now is foolish. Interest rates are close to historic lows so lock in a 30 year fixed. I just had a buyer lock in 5% with 3 points for buy down for a 30 year fiexd on a NOO. That is smoking hot deal and the points are returned in 27 months. After that, an extra $149 in cash flow tacked on, plus the expected appreciation on the proper use of leverage as Rich points out.

    I also don't expect wages to increase at the saame rate as the inflation you mention. In fact, under these specific market conditions, I actually expect them to retract some. Many companies laying off or going out of biz, and may unemployed people willing to take less to get back to work.



  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    Hello- Was it 20% down?

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y

    Yes. 20% down on that loan.
    25% got the buydown to 1.5 points or 2 points, I forget.

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    Will- Have you found me another place for my money yet?

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