Does the February Rise in Sales Mean a Bottom is Near?

Does the February Rise in Sales Mean a Bottom is Near?

Involved In Real Estate · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 4 posts · 0 votes

Home sales soared nationwide in February leading many market analysts to wonder if the bottom has finally come for the distressed U.S. housing market. But it is important to note that sales also rose in December and September without a bottom arriving. Another important factor to consider is that even as home sales have risen, median home prices have continued to fall nationwide.

Steve Bottfeld, a real estate analyst with Marketing Solutions presented at our Real Estate Insider Club of Las Vegas last year and outlined a three point test to gauge the bottom of a real estate market. First, he looks at the inventory of homes listed on the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Second, he evaluates the sales data. (Sales rose in February.) Lastly, he considers the average median price of homes in the market...which, as of February, is still descending.

Bottfeld stated last year that the hold out factor in the data for the Las Vegas housing market was the median home price...and that appears to continue to be the case, not just in Las Vegas, but across the country as well. As soon as we see the median home price stabilize, according to Bottfeld, we will have found the true bottom of the market.

So what does all of this mean for us property investors looking to add to our portfolios? Should we hold off on purchasing property until the market reaches an identifiable bottom?

I think that the answer is a resounding “NO.†The key element to consider when purchasing investment real estate in a stagnate or declining market is cash flow. Cash flow is king. As long as an investment property cash flows at the time that you buy it, you will not have to count on appreciation to make your deal worth while. The property will continue to provide you with monthly income even if the value dips slightly before a bottom is reached. Any appreciation you do incur will be a bonus.

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  • Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 447 votes
    17y

    Many of the bubble markets like Las Vegas still have a lot of REO properties that need to be disposed of. Until that happens you have a market that has way too much supply. The banks have been doing a steady release of these REOs in an effort to maintain some form of price stability, yet the median price is still falling. The increasing sales do show that the lower price is having an effect.

    The silver lining in the Las Vegas market is that these lower prices are allowing some areas to show positive cash flow for the first time in more than a decade. I agree with you in that cash is king. Investing for appreciation is a fools game at this point. If you have good cash flow and buy to hold it doesn’t matter if we are at the bottom or not.

    I remember that meeting with Steve Bottfeld, he did an excellent presentation. He also had a great line (which I promptly stole) when he said “ 70% of all statistics confuse 80% of the people 90% of the time.â€

    Statistcs can be spun in so many ways as you can see in this article: http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2009/02/23/spin-cycle-real-estate-statistics/

    I can’t wait to hear what that fantastic speaker at the Real Estate Insiders Club has to say in his economic update in April!

    :cool:

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y

    A rise in sales from one month to the next means very little, least of all a sign of a bottom. That is a very narrow view of a very large and complex market in my opinion.

    I do know that there are some other factors that have shown me reasons to buy there. Plus going to Vegas and expensing the trip is not a bad way to go either!

  • Real Estate Investor · Richmond, VA · Member since 2009 · 43 posts · 6 votes
    17y

    Being that real estate is so local in nature I think the bottom will hit in some places before it hits in other places. Just as the prices rose so fast in Phoenix, Vegas, etc and rose slow in other parts of the country, I think the ultimate recovery will follow a similar signature.

    Personally I hope that we continue to have these incredible bargains for a while longer. This is a once in a generation buying opportunity (at least in the Virginia market).

    Jim

  • Real Estate Investor · StL, MO · Member since 2008 · 296 posts · 152 votes
    17y

    Remember that's one month to a previous month's report. The report basically says that more people prefer to look at moving when it gets nicer weather outside (February for parts of the country) than in the middle of winter (January for most of the country). Feb is always better than Jan. Yup, that's right, that number you read was not 'seasonally adjusted' though the unemployment and other numbers that are reported are manipulated, er 'seasonally adjusted'. Year over year was down.

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    17y

    I am about to share the plan, that I am doing for me.

    there are many things to watch in a bottoming market

    when watching trends, watch YOY, not month on month. Short term trending is fun to watch, do not use it unless you are making short term moves.

    I watch the following:

    Money in Motion
    number of sales
    median sale
    average sale
    $ per SQFT

    the bottom of most markets look like a valley, beware of the ditch, trench, gorge in the valley. The number of homes to sell to return balance to supply and demand determines the depth of that.

    Watch the interaction of the median and average in relation to each other. That is the key. Is the median pushing or pulling the average? I wish I could post a picture here. I have a chart of Lehigh Acres Florida that could be a case study as to that thought.


    as for investors. you will never time a bottom. When playing the bust/boom cycle game ( please note word placement) do not spend your treasure until you have positive leverage in the market. That is about the time the ditch forms in the valley, FYI

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    17y
    Originally posted by Bob Hines:
    Remember that's one month to a previous month's report. The report basically says that more people prefer to look at moving when it gets nicer weather outside (February for parts of the country) than in the middle of winter (January for most of the country). Feb is always better than Jan. Yup, that's right, that number you read was not 'seasonally adjusted' though the unemployment and other numbers that are reported are manipulated, er 'seasonally adjusted'. Year over year was down.



    Spot on

    I do not trust any numbers that I do not gather, scrubb and chart myself. If I see a report. I get the data and do the chart work mysef to see if I get the same "results"

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y

    I like Jeff's key factors to look for as well as making your own charts from good data you collect, and not use someone elses work. (GIGO)

    I would add that it is very important in my opinion to look at information and data regarding planned development, units scheduled to be built, units being built and if the new units are in-fill or not. These factors can paint a picture as to the strength/weakness in a specific market.

    PS Jeff - How is the market these days in Lehigh Acres? I know of many who got taken in that market, those that went against my advice.

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    17y
    Originally posted by nationwidepi:
    I like Jeff's key factors to look for as well as making your own charts from good data you collect, and not use someone elses work. (GIGO)

    I would add that it is very important in my opinion to look at information and data regarding planned development, units scheduled to be built, units being built and if the new units are in-fill or not. These factors can paint a picture as to the strength/weakness in a specific market.

    PS Jeff - How is the market these days in Lehigh Acres? I know of many who got taken in that market, those that went against my advice.


    Lehigh is doing just fine.

    pricing is real low, sales are real high. Kind of the way it is supposed to work :cool:
    Not high prices high sales numbers

    Since we are not building I am drilling the foreclosures down to project inventory

    Lots of pool and canal homes coming this year. The cream went last

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    17y

    I think you've got that backwards. Several years ago was the once in a generation buying opportunity provided you were smart enough to sell at the top of the market. Now the market is coming back to the norm, where it will stay for decades. This will not be a V-shaped recovery in housing prices. The recovery was the drop from the astronomical prices reached during the bubble. The coming "recovery" will look like the letter "L", prices will go down and stay there, where they should have been all the while (except for the normal rise due to inflation).

    Mike

  • Involved In Real Estate · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    I agree Mike. In fact my next blog post will address that very issue. www.vegasforeclosures.blogspot.com

  • Virtual Assistant · Toronto · Member since 2009 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    Does the recent spate of good economic data mean the recession’s almost over? Not so fast, According to the Stock Research Portal: “Manufactured durable goods shipments (which contribute to GDP) fell 0.5% in February, and February new house sales in annualized units were still the second slowest annualized (after January) since 1963.†(http://www.stockresearchportalblog.com)

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    17y
    Originally posted by MikeOH:


    I think you've got that backwards. Several years ago was the once in a generation buying opportunity provided you were smart enough to sell at the top of the market. Now the market is coming back to the norm, where it will stay for decades. This will not be a V-shaped recovery in housing prices. The recovery was the drop from the astronomical prices reached during the bubble. The coming "recovery" will look like the letter "L", prices will go down and stay there, where they should have been all the while (except for the normal rise due to inflation).

    Mike



    Mike,

    I agree it should be that way. The fundamantals point to that. You discount the maddness of crowds. The lemmings are recharging. Wait till Mr Banker Figures out a way to lend them money again......... :lol:

  • Real Estate Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2008 · 190 posts · 91 votes
    17y

    I don't see how we could have hit the bottom yet with the back log of foreclosures and pre foreclosures waiting in the wings, but I can tell you that there has been a dramatic change in activity in my market.

    Lots and lots of people are buying right now. I can't remember the last time I made an offer on an REO when there weren't multiple offers and it ended up going over list. It's crazy. Even pieces of junk have multiple offers.

    The thing that has me scratching my head is that there has been a noticable decrease in the number of REOs coming on the market, while the number of lis pendens filed in my county has remained the same (roughly 2k/month).

    I wonder where all of these properties are going?

    Any thoughts?

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    17y

    They are in a holding pattern to see if they can get some Boma money

  • Real Estate Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2008 · 190 posts · 91 votes
    17y

    The way the givernment is throwing money around, I can't say I blame them.

  • Real Estate Investor · ten mile, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 374 votes
    17y

    Dont forget that when falling you usually cant see anything at first (because of the clouds) then comes the trees that hang you up for a little bit (false bottom) then the final fall to the actual bottom (ground).

    That last one usually hurts worse than the rest.

    When the first talk of a bottom begins we are usually just stuck in the trees where too much activity breaks the branch we are on to begin that small but painful final fall.

  • VA · Member since 2008 · 82 posts · 1 vote
    17y

    Usually, the verge of the ending storm is not always oblivious to the general public. No one knows when the bear market would end or not. It's up to you to be aware of your local market and see how you can blend in with the surrounding environment.

    Anyway, my prediction is that we still have not found the bottom. We probably have but I'm pretty sure that the outcome for us is not going to be pretty. We could either have stagflation or hyperinflation coming up in the near future and that dire prediction will be even worse that I would have foreseen. The one who is already buying now will pump money into the system and give back the government their money.

    There is a reason why interest rates is still low. They're trying to recapture the money that we've took from the government. So, my prediction is that we still have a long way to go when that debt is fully paid off. The times are acoming gentlemen, and it will not be pretty for the middle class and the rich.

    The world economy is under attack, and sooner or later, North Korea will take advantage of our president fooling around with the defense spending. While China is consuming our money, and already we owe a substantial amount of money to them, we could face danger in the near future.

  • Real Estate Investor · ten mile, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 374 votes
    17y
    Originally posted by Franklin Lee:

    There is a reason why interest rates is still low. They're trying to recapture the money that we've took from the government. So, my prediction is that we still have a long way to go when that debt is fully paid off. The times are acoming gentlemen, and it will not be pretty for the middle class and the rich.

    Economically, I will disagree with this statement.

    WE never take any money from the government! THEY take it from us!!!!!!!!

    And yes, I do agree with what I believe you were attempting to say. I just hate the implication of those words. It sounds as though the government owns the money and allows us to make it. When the reverse it really true. We made the money and we allow the government to take it. Their desire for more and more in upcomming years is going to be very hard on the middle and upper classes.

    So I guess that leaves it up to us to elect the right people. IF you can find them.

  • VA · Member since 2008 · 82 posts · 1 vote
    17y

    There was a quote in the Bible that I've just read, and I wanted to share it with you guys. Here it is: "He that soweth iniquity shall reap vanity; and the rod of his anger shall fail." King James Version Proverbs 22:8.

    This quote strikingly recalls my memory, even though I'm 19, that we lived through the time of a huge economic boom. The housing market was increasing its rate and during the course of that progress, many people took advantage of the get-rich schemes. Such as no money down deals or 100% financing with no credits!!! The interest rate was even low back then.

    When banks don't require a collateral for a loan, they risk their lives on these people who are making free money on these houses. The course following the minor depression, banks were shut down because they lost so much money from these people who could not offer a 20% downpayment.

    It was not just George W. Bush, Congress, Democrats, Republicans, and the Feds who we feel we need to put the blame on; it was also us who were the enemy of the state. So, when you said that we never take any money from the government, that's actually correct; but, you have to keep in mind that we stole money from the banks and the government is going to punish us for the sake of these events that we have caused.

    There are some more quotes in the Bible that I thought were interesting. Such as this famous quote, "The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away." Quite interesting if you would apply my perspective of the economy into it.

  • Real Estate Investor · ten mile, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 374 votes
    17y

    Actually, even according to your post previously in the same post the banks gave away that money by not requiring collateral, which encoraged people to just walk away when they could no longer afford to pay.

    The banks are now being punished for their behavior, which by the way was enouraged by the government, which I will never trust!!!!!!
    They will recieve their just rewards in the end.

    And you will see that we are in basic agreement on how to do things if you read my statement on the very last line.

  • VA · Member since 2008 · 82 posts · 1 vote
    17y
    Originally posted by Jim Wineinger:


    Actually, even according to your post previously in the same post the banks gave away that money by not requiring collateral, which encoraged people to just walk away when they could no longer afford to pay.

    When banks don't require a collateral for a loan, they risk their lives on these people who are making free money on these houses. The course following the minor depression, banks were shut down because they lost so much money from these people who could not offer a 20% downpayment.



    The banks are now being punished for their behavior, which by the way was enouraged by the government, which I will never trust!!!!!!
    They will recieve their just rewards in the end.

    And you will see that we are in basic agreement on how to do things if you read my statement on the very last line.

    The government has always been the support of the American economy. Whether we need new roads, schools, government workers, etc., things like that will always improve our economy. I hate to break it to you Jim, but we are a hybrid breed of Capitalism and Socialism. The good news is that we are leaning more to Capitalism and the Right(Conservative). So you can hold back those tears now. Wall Street is providing us the wealth, while the government is also providing us the wealth but it comes with a cost.

    Yes, I hate the double standard nowadays that Wall Street must be punished for their actions and not the government because the government is always correct. President Obama fully supports this. Hell, he even personally fired the president of GM just last week - although he did need to go.

    You know, I've been thinking but the quote on the dollar bill that you have in your wallet, says "In God We Trust." A lighting bulb just pops out of nowhere and I was hoping if you guys would ponder why I would just say that.

  • Real Estate Investor · ten mile, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 374 votes
    17y

    I do understand your point totally, and do not like the way we are heading as it is capitalism and not socialism (or the government) that actually provided the wealth the masses, making us the richest nation.

    If all the capitalism shuts down the government would not have anywhere to get their monies from. It is only the greedy ones that should be punished and not everyone (mom and pop types). But policies being enforced by the socialist types are punishing everyone by taking more and more from them.

    This thinking by the government (because they NEED more) is why I suggest that their policies are going to mean that we have not reached the bottom, as the false bottom they are providing is going to collapse. And then they may see that they must support the mainstay of the capitalistic society by removing those policies that drove most of them out of the market. But this will depend upon us electing those that are of like mind IF we can find them these days.

  • VA · Member since 2008 · 82 posts · 1 vote
    17y

    QTF or quoted for truth.

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    According to Money mag in research done by KNOWLEDGABLE research companies, some cities and areas might be near the end. Others continue as far as 2011. Check yours out. Mine in S. Texas is still great.

  • Real Estate Investor · ten mile, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 374 votes
    17y

    Interesting!! But with the banks being charged with bending over backwards to help those who are about to be foreclosed upon by the legislation that allowed their bailout (banks) this can only serve to slow down the inevitable end.

    This also slows down the number of reported foreclosures for the time being causing a lot of people to believe that the bottom is nearing. While this may be the case it has only slowed our decent so that we do not crash on the ground when we do hit it. It does nothing with the homeowners ability to repay the loan which would keep them out of the impending foreclosure. Especially if the economic downturn causes them to loose their job(s).

    But I really do hope that they are right as the sooner the economy recovers the sooner I can gain from the properties that I have been able to purchase recently.

    Anyone out there have any helium that we can inject into the housing market???

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