Are you tired of everyone predicting whats next? If so read this

Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes

2y

Love your prediction since we are in Self Storage. Good and bad economies are great for storage. As long as you don’t say normal we are doing good.

Again your prediction is great for our Teak plantations. Bad economy we let them keep growing in both size and value. Good economy we sell. The best part is they are not a commodity like a banana and you have to sell.

Land investments we went heavy cash so we can sit on if economy is bad. If economy is good we just have to order the buildings or sell the lots since they are already zoned and prepped.

I like these discussion not whether I agree with people but to understand and challenge my thought process and positions. About twice a year I feel someone or something (hair on the back of my neck) behind me on our positions. I’ll stop and go thru mentally each one and reanalyze our position.

It’s your money. You’re always right, even if you’re wrong.

2 Reply

Mike Dymski

Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes

2y

Amen. The forums are full of talk about the "the market" and devoid of discussions about real acquisitions. Nobody smart cares about what other people "think is going to happen"...they care about what we are "doing" with our own savings.

6 Reply

Steven S.

Specialist · LA & Ventura · Member since 2023 · 119 posts · 60 votes

2y

Quote from @Mike Dymski:

Amen. The forums are full of talk about the "the market" and devoid of discussions about real acquisitions. Nobody smart cares about what other people "think is going to happen"...they care about what we are "doing" with our own savings.

If you want to get a glimpse of what the real global players (banks, the fed, etc) are doing/setting up, read The Great Taking by David Rogers Webb: https://thegreattaking.com/

Its the best book I've read all year.

0 Reply

Alan F.

Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

As the post mentions, I am exhausted reading posts from everyone trying to predict what is going to happen next. Many on the hopes that they are right and can refer back to the post to gain credibility. The reality is these prognosticators are basing this on a single event such as interest rates right now because that is the easiest thing to talk about or the perception of lack of supply.

Here is the truth people, there is this thing called chaos theory. What is chaos theory, a great example is we can predict weather for a few days in advance but not months - why? because there are so many factors that come into consideration that one minor event or change can have a huge impact on the future. The same goes for the economy and real estate. Stop trying to predict what will happen and spend more time focusing on your business and yourself over the next 90 days. At the end of the day it is usually not what someone else does that has the greatest impact on you but what YOU do and how you prepare for those potential roadblocks ahead. Now this does not mean to ignore what is going on or any warning signs (which there are many), as those who did not follow the warning signs in 2020 about inflation and interest rates and bought on variable rates are effed.

My recommendation is for data you want to look at, look at what the largest companies are predicting and how they are adjusting their business. You will realize what they are doing vs. what everyone seems to be doing on BP are two very different plays.

PS: My prediction for next year is interest rates will be in the range from 0-100%, home prices will fluctuate somewhere between 0-99% in each direction

Any links/advice where to read what the big companies are not?

I think your predictions are very accurate;)

0 Reply

Chris SeveneyBusiness Member

Moderator

OP

Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes

2y

@Alan F.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dayma_list-of-market-outlooks-for-2024-blackrock-activity-7138177043170566144-9DxW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

7e investments53 Reviews

Website View Page

3 Reply

Bruce WoodruffPro Member

Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes

2y

Great post @Chris Seveney...but y'know how it is, people just love to prognosticate!

1 Reply

V.G JasonPro Member

Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes

2y

I love speculating and trying to anticipate where it goes. I'm wrong 99% of the time, but I don't take it personally. Just fun to do.

Reading the beige book too can help a bit. I'd be mindful of reading their out look and taking it at face value; a lot of their outlook can be deceptive. I would just get a wholesome look at the consistencies between all of them, not each individual random take.

1 Reply

Alan F.

Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

2y

Quote from @V.G Jason:

I love speculating and trying to anticipate where it goes. I'm wrong 99% of the time, but I don't take it personally. Just fun to do.

Reading the beige book too can help a bit. I'd be mindful of reading their out look and taking it at face value; a lot of their outlook can be deceptive. I would just get a wholesome look at the consistencies between all of them, not each individual random take.

Its great when you & Carlos do your thing! I learn ALOT.

Chris; thanks bigtime for the links!

0 Reply

Jeremiah Dunakin

Member since 2022 · 186 posts · 192 votes

2y

While I agree that most don’t know. Here is my two bit thought. Making a rational educated guess can help you navigate waters.Basically plan for the worst and if it happens you prepared, if not you in better shape. There are things that you can try and predict. Rates will start going down next year. Inflation will “go down” gas will go down, food will go down, there will also be cold and flu season. It is an election year. I would be willing to bet in the months leading up to November prices will be down so that the last four years are forgotten for better or worse. Especially in today’s political climate some things are easier to predict than in years past. Me personally I try and sometimes fail to think about future events and how they can affect my wallet. If there is a changing of the guard in the next election cycle I think most can tell where things will go, or if they stay the same we can also know how that wil go.

1 Reply

Carlos Ptriawan

Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

I love speculating and trying to anticipate where it goes. I'm wrong 99% of the time, but I don't take it personally. Just fun to do.

Reading the beige book too can help a bit. I'd be mindful of reading their out look and taking it at face value; a lot of their outlook can be deceptive. I would just get a wholesome look at the consistencies between all of them, not each individual random take.

Its great when you & Carlos do your thing! I learn ALOT.

Chris; thanks bigtime for the links!

There's different mindset between us investor and folks that live in real estate, for folk that live in real estate they have to constantly doing real estate transaction.

For us investor there are two ways of looking at it, there are lot of mine trap in real estate, not anticipating forecast is equal to become homeless next year or doubling the return.

also for us investor, sometimes every year has generate different opportunity, if 2009 is good time to buy and leverage real estate, 2020 maybe the best time to buy coal mining company lol while 2023 it would be very dumb for me if I invest at syndication while it's the best investment during 2015-2019 era LOL

investor forecast where the money is flowing lol if tomorrow real estate appreciation may be higher in columbia than we would invest there lol

1 Reply

Nicholas L.Pro Member

Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes

2y

I like what @Mike Dymski says.

If you think X is going to happen, then tell us you're doing Y because of X. I agree that pure speculation about what interest rates is going to do is just "admiring the problem."

BiggerPockets has done a hard pivot away from "buy any duplex make $500 a month" to investing for the long term, investing for equity, etc. David Greene has been hammering on this in every podcast.

6 Reply

James Hamling

Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes

2y

@Chris Seveney I think it's important to lend a distinction between Range Forecasting/Predictions and Detail Prognosticating.

For example, how many have been on YT and BP since start of COVID giving DETAIL predictions that collapse was eminent? How many here on BP were shouting with certainty of 30%/40% "discount's" about to happen "just around the corner"?

It was blatant BS from the get-go.

If one looked at the data, there just was nothing on the horizon of such. The standard manner of looking at market's for trying to read where the fences are at, which true forecasting only does that, say's where the fences look to be and why, not saying the exact path things WILL take within that range. That forecasting had fences a million miles away from a '08' type collapse.

And as we know, none of that BS came to pass. Yet, how many BP posts have any of use seen of those people owning up to how wrong there "certainty" of the "imminent collapse" was? None, not a 1. Yet, i recall when they were spamming the heck out of the posting board with there "warnings".

And fact is, people acted on such. The 2nd biggest talk was of people waiting, drawing back, to be careful just in case such was true.

So, int hat way I DO think it's very important for forecasting, to help people to counter weigh the "news-4-profit" masses, who care nothing of accuracy and will say anything that drives views to drive revenue, which most often is negativity messaging, FEAR, selling FEAR. Accurate, fact based forecasting IS important so people can see the fear-porn is unfounded and is what there ever so microscopic fine print says "for entertainment value only".

Every forecast I lay out details where i am drawing such conclusions from data, the variables at play, the range of things, and too often the "I hope I am wrong but this is what the math is saying" rider.

People today are very focused on getting spoon-feed direction for action vs self-acting. I agree 1,000% the clear path for maximum success is found inward, not outward. Although most today won't act unless they have outward indicators, empowerment, direction indicating some safety of such.

And YES, ignore what other players are saying, and LISTEN to what there doing. People can and will say anything, but actions NEVER lie.

4 Reply

James Hamling

Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

I like what @Mike Dymski says.

If you think X is going to happen, then tell us you're doing Y because of X. I agree that pure speculation about what interest rates is going to do is just "admiring the problem."

BiggerPockets has done a hard pivot away from "buy any duplex make $500 a month" to investing for the long term, investing for equity, etc. David Greene has been hammering on this in every podcast.

I am going to borrow that term, that's a great and all too accurate phrase "admiring the problem".

2 Reply

Alan F.

Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

I like what @Mike Dymski says.

If you think X is going to happen, then tell us you're doing Y because of X. I agree that pure speculation about what interest rates is going to do is just "admiring the problem."

BiggerPockets has done a hard pivot away from "buy any duplex make $500 a month" to investing for the long term, investing for equity, etc. David Greene has been hammering on this in every podcast.

Many "pundits" call the low % rate period "the great moderation" lol.

It would seem that well thought out, investing will be en vogue moving forward.

Ironically many small businesses have already learned this courtesy of Dodd Frank. W2 people have no idea how easy it was to use leverage. Now the times have changed

2 Reply

Marcus Auerbach

Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes

2y

Amen. Except for the part of looking at big corporations as a role model. Here is why:

I used to be in charge of sales for a global construction equipment manufacturer. Every month we had a "planning meeting" with the board. I would present the last 4 weeks of orders received and my personal outlook and if it was not good, we would slash future production by 10%. Next month same situation, so we slash another 10%. Economic trends take long times to manifest, you can see where this is going.

The supply chain of heavy machinery components is long. 6-12 months. We would pay penalties for canceling orders for diesel engines and hydraulic components inside of 6 months. We would lay off factory workers. We would lower production every month.

Until the economic outlook changes to the positive. At first there would be disbelieve. Maybe it's just a fluke? When it was finally clear we would start adding to the production plan. Ramp up again. Hire more workers, train them. By the time we were so back ordered that we started loosing business to Cat and Kubota we would start to panic. Remember, 6-12 month supply chain. Diesel engines from Japan, steel components from China. Our suppliers hated us, a few months ago we cancel, now we want more. We would start paying premiums for rush orders and the airfreight parts. Do you know how much it costs to airfreight steel from the other side of the world? How much market share and distributors we lost, because we could not supply our dealers in an upswing?

I've been through the cycle several times. Huge cost to slow down production, even bigger cost to ramp it back up. Disruptive to the supply chain, hard on our staff, workforce and HR. In every single incident we would have been better off to just not do anything. Let production run, put machines in a warehouse and then flood the market with inventory when the ecomony picked back up.

Why? Plain and simple: FEAR

Slow is smooth and smooth is fast. Slow and steady wins the race. Both apply. For 99% of us investors here on BP it does not matter what the economy does. Except in our heads.

I pay attention to the trends here in Milwaukee, the national economy is just because its interesting, but not part of my personal investing strategy.

2 Reply

Nicholas L.Pro Member

Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes

2y

@Marcus Auerbach

@Chris Seveney

how do we merge this thread with Carlos's one on unemployment? =)

0 Reply

Marcus Auerbach

Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Marcus Auerbach

@Chris Seveney

how do we merge this thread with Carlos's one on unemployment? =)

Yeah, I know! Was thinking the same LOL

0 Reply

Scott Reigns

Member since 2023 · 35 posts · 50 votes

2y

great post man! I much rather like to focus and act based on what happening now, rather than trying to predict what will happen!

1 Reply

Jack Seiden

Real Estate Agent · Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 847 posts · 656 votes

2y

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

As the post mentions, I am exhausted reading posts from everyone trying to predict what is going to happen next. Many on the hopes that they are right and can refer back to the post to gain credibility. The reality is these prognosticators are basing this on a single event such as interest rates right now because that is the easiest thing to talk about or the perception of lack of supply.

Here is the truth people, there is this thing called chaos theory. What is chaos theory, a great example is we can predict weather for a few days in advance but not months - why? because there are so many factors that come into consideration that one minor event or change can have a huge impact on the future. The same goes for the economy and real estate. Stop trying to predict what will happen and spend more time focusing on your business and yourself over the next 90 days. At the end of the day it is usually not what someone else does that has the greatest impact on you but what YOU do and how you prepare for those potential roadblocks ahead. Now this does not mean to ignore what is going on or any warning signs (which there are many), as those who did not follow the warning signs in 2020 about inflation and interest rates and bought on variable rates are effed.

My recommendation is for data you want to look at, look at what the largest companies are predicting and how they are adjusting their business. You will realize what they are doing vs. what everyone seems to be doing on BP are two very different plays.

PS: My prediction for next year is interest rates will be in the range from 0-100%, home prices will fluctuate somewhere between 0-99% in each direction

I think it really depends on why/how you make predictions, if your just making them so you can look good in year, or making them in attempt to sell something or just like yelling online, yes they are totally useless, I however love making predictions because I genuinely try to put thought into them and it trains me over time on how to think, why I think certain things, what my biases may be, what type of investments I should look for etc. done correctly predictions are a powerful tool.

2 Reply

Carlos Ptriawan

Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes

2y

Quote from @Scott Reigns:

great post man! I much rather like to focus and act based on what happening now, rather than trying to predict what will happen!

I don't even make prediction but anticipating it by reading bank's forecast.

Thing is bank forecasting is 180% totally different than what people read in yahoo finance LOL.

I was survived thousand times by investing at right class by understanding the river flow ahead of me, otherwise I may already file foreclosure by now LOL LOL

what's happening now ? we have recession in tech. 15-20% of my friend is already gone LOL

1 Reply

Are you tired of everyone predicting whats next? If so read this

Are you tired of everyone predicting whats next? If so read this

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