How Accurately is Inflation Being Reported?

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How Accurately is Inflation Being Reported?

Josh Sidhu
Member since 2023 · 6 posts · 10 votes

An interesting read: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/federal-reserve-to-lower-rates-six-times-says-ing-economics?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20%7C%2012/07/23

I’ve seen a few headlines of this, where some economic analysis “experts” are predicting large interest rate cuts. As this article mentions ING Economics released a report about a week ago claiming the Fed will cut rates 6 times over 250bp over the course of 2024 – 2025. I personally don’t see Inflation coming down to the Fed’s target of 2% anytime soon despite what some reports may claim. Just from day-to-day life from gas and grocery prices these days compared to a couple of years ago, prices are significantly higher today. Reports claim the inflation rate today is around 3.1-3.2% but I definitely think the average consumer feels this to be much higher.

What do you you’ll think, is inflation at an accurate spot according to the reports and will we face heavy cuts potentially in 2024?

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Matthew CrivelliBusiness Member
Lender · MA · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y

Every mainstream prediction has been wrong in the last few years. First we had transitory inflation in 2021, then we were told growth will slow in 2022, then we had a 100% probability of a recession in 2023, now we are being told that we are going to see a soft landing and the fed is going to drop rates. lol it's like opposite day around here with these predictions. 

A few things to note - the treasury yields are still inverted, government spending is still out of control, the consumer is being squeezed with debt payments, student loans, cost of living hikes, and inflation is above the target goal. Oh and not to mention we haven't seen a recession in 15 years. 

I'm taking the experts opinion with a grain of salt and articles like this are laughable....

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  • Albert Hasson
    Investor · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2012 · 361 posts · 214 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???
    0Reply
  • Guy Gimenez
    Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???

    Well, I see you're a physician so let me talk about something that should be in our wheelhouse. Was the government truthful about the efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccine and it's dangers? Did the government try their best to remove inexpensive alternative treatments from the market and lie about it? 

    1Reply
  • Andrew SyriosPro Member
    Moderator
    Residential Real Estate Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Benjamin Sulka:
    Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

    They don't include housing (nor stocks and bonds) nor insurance in the CPI, which I think makes inflation look better than it is. I also think they conjole the numbers to a certain degree. I don't think inflation is wildly higher than what's reported, but it's definitely higher IMO

     They can make the numbers look however they want. Trusting the government's inflation numbers is like trusting your kid to do his own report card. 

    If anybody remembers, when the White House showed price decreases year over year for Thanksgiving items, they didn't even include turkey. 


     They're bound by certain facts on the ground. I do think they undercount (and certainly do so by not including housing), but what I see in real life tends to mirror (albeit to a greater extent) their own inflation numbers. It's not like they could have pretended in 2022 that inflation was 3% and gotten away with it. 

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    1Reply
  • Albert Hasson
    Investor · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2012 · 361 posts · 214 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???

    Well, I see you're a physician so let me talk about something that should be in our wheelhouse. Was the government truthful about the efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccine and it's dangers? Did the government try their best to remove inexpensive alternative treatments from the market and lie about it? 


    Yes the government was truthful about the efficacy of the COVID 19 vaccine.  It literally saved millions of lives worldwide.  Inexpensive alternative promoted by internet influencers didn’t and don’t work.  Sorry you don’t believe in science. FYI, just because you or your buddy didn’t get a vaccine and never got Covid is not evidence of anything.

    0Reply
  • Guy Gimenez
    Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???

    Well, I see you're a physician so let me talk about something that should be in our wheelhouse. Was the government truthful about the efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccine and it's dangers? Did the government try their best to remove inexpensive alternative treatments from the market and lie about it? 


    Yes the government was truthful about the efficacy of the COVID 19 vaccine.  It literally saved millions of lives worldwide.  Inexpensive alternative promoted by internet influencers didn’t and don’t work.  Sorry you don’t believe in science. FYI, just because you or your buddy didn’t get a vaccine and never got Covid is not evidence of anything.


     Well, that pretty much explains a lot about you. Millions of lives were lost due to the greed of hospitals and doctors like yourself who went along to get along. Ivermectin literally saved the lives of hundreds of thousands and would have saved more if physicians would have prescribed it instead of following the money. Clearly you equate money with science. Cheers good Sir, you're part of the reason so many have lost faith in the medical industry (and there's little doubt, it's an industry, not a profession). 

    0Reply
  • Albert Hasson
    Investor · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2012 · 361 posts · 214 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???

    Well, I see you're a physician so let me talk about something that should be in our wheelhouse. Was the government truthful about the efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccine and it's dangers? Did the government try their best to remove inexpensive alternative treatments from the market and lie about it? 


    Yes the government was truthful about the efficacy of the COVID 19 vaccine.  It literally saved millions of lives worldwide.  Inexpensive alternative promoted by internet influencers didn’t and don’t work.  Sorry you don’t believe in science. FYI, just because you or your buddy didn’t get a vaccine and never got Covid is not evidence of anything.


     Well, that pretty much explains a lot about you. Millions of lives were lost due to the greed of hospitals and doctors like yourself who went along to get along. Ivermectin literally saved the lives of hundreds of thousands and would have saved more if physicians would have prescribed it instead of following the money. Clearly you equate money with science. Cheers good Sir, you're part of the reason so many have lost faith in the medical industry (and there's little doubt, it's an industry, not a profession). 


     Complete nonsense.  You are deep down the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.  Be doubtful of science and the medicine at your own peril.  Natural selection in action.

    1Reply
  • Guy Gimenez
    Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:
    Quote from @Albert Hasson:
    Quote from @Guy Gimenez:

    Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

    Evidence???

    Well, I see you're a physician so let me talk about something that should be in our wheelhouse. Was the government truthful about the efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccine and it's dangers? Did the government try their best to remove inexpensive alternative treatments from the market and lie about it? 

    Yes the government was truthful about the efficacy of the COVID 19 vaccine.  It literally saved millions of lives worldwide.  Inexpensive alternative promoted by internet influencers didn’t and don’t work.  Sorry you don’t believe in science. FYI, just because you or your buddy didn’t get a vaccine and never got Covid is not evidence of anything.


     Well, that pretty much explains a lot about you. Millions of lives were lost due to the greed of hospitals and doctors like yourself who went along to get along. Ivermectin literally saved the lives of hundreds of thousands and would have saved more if physicians would have prescribed it instead of following the money. Clearly you equate money with science. Cheers good Sir, you're part of the reason so many have lost faith in the medical industry (and there's little doubt, it's an industry, not a profession). 


     Complete nonsense.  You are deep down the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.  Be doubtful of science and the medicine at your own peril.  Natural selection in action.

    $$$$$ = Science.
    Great job. Sell your soul at your own peril. There will be a price to be paid for allowing the government to mandate your patient care. Keep praying at the alter of big government. 

    0Reply
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