Week of February 23, 2026 in Review

Housing data continues to show resilience. Inflation surprised to the upside. And the labor market may be weaker than it looks.

If you’re watching mortgage rates or planning a move in 2026, this week’s reports matter.

Let’s break down what actually moves the needle.

Home Prices Continue to Find Support

The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed prices dipped 0.3% before seasonal adjustments — but after adjusting for normal winter trends, prices actually rose 0.4%.

On an annual basis, national home values are still up 1.3%.

The FHFA index painted a similar picture:

• +0.1% month over month
• +1.8% year over year

Why this matters:

As mortgage rates eased earlier this year, buyer activity improved. But inventory hasn’t grown meaningfully. When demand improves and supply moves slowly, prices tend to stay supported.

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae and Pulsenomics’ Home Price Expectations Survey (polling 150 economists) projects 15% cumulative home price growth over the next five years.

Put simply:

A $500,000 home could gain roughly $75,000 in value over that time.

That’s why timing the “perfect rate” can carry real opportunity cost.

Wholesale Inflation Surprises Higher

January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected:

• +0.5% month over month
• +2.9% year over year
• Core PPI +0.8% monthly, +3.6% annually

That’s sticky inflation.

What this means for mortgage rates:

The Federal Reserve remains in a balancing act:

• Cooling labor data argues for easing
• Persistent inflation argues for caution

Hot wholesale numbers likely keep the Fed patient in the near term.

That doesn’t mean rates spike — but it does mean aggressive cuts aren’t imminent.

Is Gig Work Masking Labor Market Strain?

Initial jobless claims remain low at 212,000.

Continuing claims, however, remain elevated at 1.83 million.

Here’s what’s interesting:

More displaced workers are turning to gig and contract roles instead of filing for unemployment benefits. With inflation still elevated, benefits often don’t fully cover essential costs like housing and insurance.

That can make the labor market look stronger than it actually is.

Meanwhile, continuing claims suggest people are taking longer to secure full-time roles.

Bottom line: The labor market isn’t breaking — but it is softening beneath the surface.

What This Means for the Housing Market

• Inflation is sticky but not spiraling
• The Fed stays cautious
• Buyer demand is returning
• Inventory remains tight
• Long-term price forecasts remain positive

That’s not a crash setup.

It’s a constrained supply + steady demand environment.

If rates stabilize near current levels, upward price pressure becomes the bigger risk — not falling values.

What to Watch This Week

• ADP private payrolls (Wednesday)
• Jobless claims (Thursday)
• Full jobs report (Friday)

Employment data will likely be the biggest short-term driver of mortgage rate direction.

Technical Snapshot

Mortgage Bonds broke above key resistance at 100.38 last week. If that level holds, there’s room to test 100.84.

The 10-year Treasury fell below 4% and is now approaching support near 3.947%.

That’s constructive for rates — assuming inflation doesn’t re-accelerate.

If you’d like help thinking through timing or strategy in today’s housing market, I’m always happy to talk.