Analyzed satellite imagery across PA — here's where construction actually is:

Eric Van Laar · 2026-03-24T13:06:21-07:00

Hey all - I work in project management in PA and as a side project I've been using satellite imagery to detect construction activity across the state. Figured this community would find the data interesting.Quick background: Pennsylvania has 2,560 separate municipalities, each with their own permitting system. There's no single database you can search. So I started pulling free satellite imagery (Sentinel-2, 10m resolution) and wrote algorithms to pick up ground disturbance - cleared land, grading, that kind of thing. The image is an example - a 22-acre site in Montgomery County, October 2024 vs October 2025. I've processed 5 years of imagery (2021–2025) across all 67 counties. Here's what stands out for 2025: The 5 hottest regions by detected site count: Philadelphia Metro - 489 sites Lehigh Valley - 299 sites Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - 229 sites Pittsburgh Metro - 224 sites Lancaster/York Corridor - 223 sites Scranton at #3 surprised me. The I-81 logistics corridor is pulling development northward from Lehigh Valley into Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. If you're looking at northeast PA, there's more ground being moved up there than I expected. Lehigh Valley has some of the largest individual sites - 25+ acre projects that look like warehouse/distribution builds along I-78. Year over year trend: 6,077 sites (2021) → 5,010 (2022) → 6,928 (2023) → 5,547 (2024) → 6,262 (2025). The 2022 dip lines up with rate hikes. The rebound since then has been stronger than I would've guessed. Curious if anyone investing in PA sees this matching what you're experiencing on the ground? Especially interested to hear from anyone in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area or Lehigh Valley. If anyone wants to know the numbers for a specific county, happy to pull it - I have all 67 loaded.

David Ribardo

Real Estate Agent · Allentown, PA · Member since 2016 · 197 posts · 181 votes

6mo

Eric, I'll confirm your observations about the Lehigh Valley. I work as an investor, agent, and property manager in the market. There are quite a few large commercial developments going on, the new $3.5b Eli Lilly plant is a perfect example of these projects. These continue to drive demand for higher end single family homes, as well as providing continued growth for our tenant base. New build residential development construction is also active, including town homes, senior communities, and high end single family detached homes.

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Eric Van Laar
OP
Developer · PA · Member since 2021 · 13 posts · 5 votes
6mo
Quote from @David Ribardo:

Eric, I'll confirm your observations about the Lehigh Valley. I work as an investor, agent, and property manager in the market. There are quite a few large commercial developments going on, the new $3.5b Eli Lilly plant is a perfect example of these projects. These continue to drive demand for higher end single family homes, as well as providing continued growth for our tenant base. New build residential development construction is also active, including town homes, senior communities, and high end single family detached homes.

David, appreciate the confirmation. 228 detected sites within 15 miles of Allentown right now, about 758 acres total - a few of the largest are 25-50 acre projects along I-78 that match what you're describing. The Eli Lilly plant will be a big one to watch once ground breaks.

In your experience, is residential demand keeping pace with this commercial influx, or are we looking at a supply lag for the next 12-18 months?
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David Ribardo
Real Estate Agent · Allentown, PA · Member since 2016 · 197 posts · 181 votes
6mo
@Eric Van Laar - Regarding the Lehigh Valley (Lehigh & Northampton counties) market I work:

On the owner / occupant SFH side, I see slightly lower inventory, slightly lower closed transactions, a 5% increase for average days on market, and stable pricing. Personal feedback I've received is that there is concern about the greater economy and interest rates, clients want to "wait and see what happens". This market is largely balanced.
Investment property prices are being driven by limited inventory. Last year showed overall investment property closings were down 20%, days on market up 25%, and average price went from $343,000 to $378,000. Where things get interesting is the "new investor" market segment. Duplexes had the same trends for closings and days on market, but the average prices went down by $5,000.
My takeaway here is that newer investors are being more cautious, but established ones are continuing to expand their portfolios.
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Dan Marriggi

Rental Property Investor · Scranton, Boston · Member since 2013 · 101 posts · 40 votes

6mo

Seeing this in the Northeastern PA area. Not only Scranton also in the small towns like Duryea, Pittston etc.

Small changes that go unnoticed by the normal day to day folks.

There is a influx of people from NYC, Philadelphia etc.

Interesting to observe as a native.

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Eric Van Laar
OP
Developer · PA · Member since 2021 · 13 posts · 5 votes
6mo
Quote from @Dan Marriggi:

Seeing this in the Northeastern PA area. Not only Scranton also in the small towns like Duryea, Pittston etc.
Small changes that go unnoticed by the normal day to day folks.
There is a influx of people from NYC, Philadelphia etc.
Interesting to observe as a native.

Dan - thanks for the ground-truth from a native perspective, that's exactly the kind of validation I was looking for. You're right that Duryea and Pittston don't show up in statewide headlines but they're definitely showing up in the data - I'm seeing 15-20 active sites within 5 miles of Duryea detected in 2025. The biggest is a 20-acre footprint right next to the TJMaxx distribution center - looks like a new warehouse going up.

That kind of anchor development usually pulls a lot of smaller activity with it. Curious what you're seeing on the residential side - are operators keeping up with the people moving in, or is supply still lagging demand in those smaller towns?

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Dan Marriggi

Rental Property Investor · Scranton, Boston · Member since 2013 · 101 posts · 40 votes

6mo

On the residential side I'm seeing renters wanting SFH. They will choose apartment style living - but those people tend to be just starting out types or the elderly if the apartment layout is conducive to their life and of course price.

The SFH crowd is section 8 who want their own piece of America for whatever reason, the newlyweds (short term), families with good jobs, but no savings to own a home.

I'm seeing a huge need for the independent elderly folks who want a safe and convenient home that is affordable to them. This is a great market to cater to. Unfortunately, new construction costs vs rent here is not realistic.

And Luzerne county is brain dead regarding ADU's. I spoke with zoning yesterday - they had no clue what an ADU is????? Sad really.

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Eric Van Laar
OP
Developer · PA · Member since 2021 · 13 posts · 5 votes
6mo
Quote from @Dan Marriggi:

On the residential side I'm seeing renters wanting SFH. They will choose apartment style living - but those people tend to be just starting out types or the elderly if the apartment layout is conducive to their life and of course price.
The SFH crowd is section 8 who want their own piece of America for whatever reason, the newlyweds (short term), families with good jobs, but no savings to own a home.
I'm seeing a huge need for the independent elderly folks who want a safe and convenient home that is affordable to them. This is a great market to cater to. Unfortunately, new construction costs vs rent here is not realistic.
And Luzerne county is brain dead regarding ADU's. I spoke with zoning yesterday - they had no clue what an ADU is????? Sad really.

Sadly, the ADU thing in Luzerne County doesn't surprise me. I've had the exact same conversation with townships in Lancaster County - they had no idea what an ADU was either. A lot of PA municipalities are running zoning codes from the 1970s that never anticipated the housing patterns you're describing. The irony is that ADUs would help solve exactly the elderly housing gap you're seeing - a small unit on an existing lot, walkable to family, lower construction cost than new build.
On the new construction cost vs rent problem - I'm seeing about 40 active sites within 10 miles of Scranton across 2024-2025, roughly 153 acres total. The largest are 15-20 acre projects near the I-81 interchange - looks commercial/industrial (warehouse, distribution). Almost nothing that looks like residential at scale. That lines up with what you're saying - the commercial development is pulling people in, but the residential construction to house them isn't keeping pace.

That gap between commercial activity and residential supply that you're describing seems like exactly the kind of dynamic investors watch for. The infrastructure investment brings the jobs and the transplants (NYC, Philly like you mentioned), but the housing stock isn't growing to match. Are you seeing any of the surrounding boroughs - Pittston, Old Forge, Moosic - being more receptive to new development than Luzerne County's zoning office, or is it the same story across the board?
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Dan Marriggi

Rental Property Investor · Scranton, Boston · Member since 2013 · 101 posts · 40 votes

6mo

Its really an odd place here in the "valley" Its really a very insular, almost an incestuous place.
For example, I am a native - lived in Many places in this country. My last phone # is from MA.
When I phone tradespeople here in NEPA, they will ghost the call as they think I'm one of those out of town folks trying to ruin their villages. Meanwhile, any opportunities here are available to all - the natives (not all certainly) just choose not to do the work.
Also, many of the small towns (Avoca and Duryea to name two), have farmed out their zoning duties to luzerne county. This, as you can imagine has created all kinds of nefarious mischief among those looking to get a quick cash payoff for their assistance. (Oops, I mean payout - wink wink)
Not seeing much residential build outs - Product is too expensive in relation to the rental returns - at least here in the small towns. One can buy existing stock of residential real estate cheaper per Sq. ft. than can be built.

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Kevin Sobilo
Realtor · Hanover Twp, PA · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
5mo
Quote from @Dan Marriggi:
Its really an odd place here in the "valley" Its really a very insular, almost an incestuous place.
For example, I am a native - lived in Many places in this country. My last phone # is from MA.
When I phone tradespeople here in NEPA, they will ghost the call as they think I'm one of those out of town folks trying to ruin their villages. Meanwhile, any opportunities here are available to all - the natives (not all certainly) just choose not to do the work.
Also, many of the small towns (Avoca and Duryea to name two), have farmed out their zoning duties to luzerne county. This, as you can imagine has created all kinds of nefarious mischief among those looking to get a quick cash payoff for their assistance. (Oops, I mean payout - wink wink)
Not seeing much residential build outs - Product is too expensive in relation to the rental returns - at least here in the small towns. One can buy existing stock of residential real estate cheaper per Sq. ft. than can be built.

Many of your observations about the Wyoming Valley are on point, BUT they are also dissipating somewhat. If you go back 10-20 years things were MUCH MUCH more insular than they are today. Yes, there is a stigma about out of area investors, but that happens in most smaller town places which attract out of area investment.

The zoning pushed to the county, is a function of a bigger dysfunction in the area. The Wyoming Valley is a top 100 metro area in the country BUT its made up of too many SMALL municipalities. You can drive a main street and cross 5 towns in 15 minutes and not even notice. Some of these municipalities should have merged long ago and only now are beginning to merge services. For example, some have merged police services because having their own small departments was too costly and ineffective.

I'm not sure ADUs make so much sense here since there is still land available to develop and even to infill. You example about an older relative could simply be accommodated with a basement remodel or addition creating an inlaw-suite.

Also, the area has a LONG history of ADUs, but they refer to them as "back houses". You will find many examples (pre-zoning ordinance) of properties that have a full sized house, sometimes a multi-family in their back yard. Back then it was not well regulated and there is still fall-out from that being dealt with today. For example, many of those properties are now subdivided but have combined utility lines such as water and sewer with no written maintenance agreements etc.
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Eric Van Laar

OP

Developer · PA · Member since 2021 · 13 posts · 5 votes

6mo

@David Ribardo - really appreciate the detail here. That 20% drop in investment closings while prices went up 10% is a dynamic I wouldn't have predicted.

The satellite data shows a similar pattern on the construction side. Within 15 miles of Allentown over 5 years: about 100 detected sites per year in 2021-2022, dropped to 70 in 2023 and bottomed at 42 in 2024, then rebounded to 83 in 2025. (I've since tightened the detection algorithm since my earlier post - the 228 number I cited before included too many false positives. The current numbers are more reliable.) Interesting note - total acreage actually went up in 2024 (194 to 256 acres) despite fewer sites. Fewer projects but bigger ones, which fits the pattern you're describing where the large commercial builds keep moving while smaller-scale activity pauses.

The 2025 rebound to 83 sites across 352 acres suggests things are picking back up across the board. Given the duplex price dip you mentioned - are you seeing newer investors start to come back in, or is it still mostly the established operators expanding (curious to see if the satellite data keeps tracking what you're seeing on the ground as the next year plays out)?

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Eric Van Laar

OP

Developer · PA · Member since 2021 · 13 posts · 5 votes

6mo

@Dan Marriggi - the zoning-farmed-to-county situation with Avoca and Duryea is eye-opening. That's a dynamic I've never come across, and it explains a lot about why development patterns in the smaller boroughs look the way they do.

And the tradesperson ghosting - I can say pretty much the same for here in Lancaster. I've been ghosted multiple times by tradesmen that will respond directly to my neighbor for the same service (my last number is NY). It's not just NEPA.

Your point about construction cost vs existing stock checks out from what I'm seeing in the imagery too. About 20 detected sites within 10 miles of Scranton in 2025, roughly 89 acres - and they're almost all 7-20 acre commercial footprints. Warehouse and distribution scale. The 1-3 acre residential-scale clearings that would signal new housing are basically absent from the data. Over 5 years it's a similar same pattern - about 117 sites, 450 acres, almost entirely commercial.

So the satellite is confirming exactly what your per-square-foot math tells you - the economics push everything toward commercial ground-up and residential existing-stock. Curious to see if that changes as the transplant population you're describing keeps growing.

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Dan Marriggi

Rental Property Investor · Scranton, Boston · Member since 2013 · 101 posts · 40 votes

5mo

You’re spot on—that "back house" legacy is exactly why there’s so much red tape today.

Those handshake deals from years ago created a nightmare of shared sewer lines and messy subdivisions that zoning is still trying to untangle.

It makes sense that the area would be hesitant to greenlight ADUs when they’re still cleaning up the "wild west" version of them from the pre-zoning era. Plus, you’re right that if someone has the space, a proper addition or a basement suite is usually a much cleaner lift than trying to drop a new structure onto a lot with questionable utility layouts.

The municipal fragmentation is really the heart of the issue, though. It’s wild that you can cross five "towns" each with its own overhead and ego. Seeing the Wyoming Area Regional Police and the new West Side merger finally take shape feels like the area is finally admitting that the old way isn't sustainable.

It feels less like the Valley is losing its identity and more like it’s finally outgrowing that hyper-local insularity out of pure necessity.What do you think is the next logical service to merge (I'm thinking the volunteer fire folks).

1 Reply

Kevin Sobilo

Realtor · Hanover Twp, PA · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes

5mo

@Dan Marriggi, I think there will be more combined police first. The reason in my mind is that where there are volunteer departments there are more decision makers involved. The more people who need to agree the harder it is to effect change.

For example, in the area I invest, I could see Nanticoke and Newport Twp combine police. They already respond to each others calls quite a bit. So, a regional force there wouldn't change much to the public except the cost.

Hopefully other places will just combine entirely. A tiny boro like Ashley is completely surrounded by Hanover Twp and would be better served as 1 entity. Eventually the economics will dictate these things but it isn't quite there yet.

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Analyzed satellite imagery across PA — here's where construction actually is:

Analyzed satellite imagery across PA — here's where construction actually is:

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