August numbers for the Louisville MLS footprint: homes sold 1,372 (down 7.3% YoY), median price $300,000 (up 1.5% YoY), average price $366,825 (up 5.4% YoY), new listings 2,174 (up 3.5% YoY), pending sales 1,054 (down 26.3% YoY), days on market 46 (up 21.1% YoY), active inventory 4,490 (up 33% YoY), months of supply 3.5 (up 29.6% YoY).

Read on that: inventory's building fast but it's not distressed — new listings are actually up and prices are still positive YoY. It's pending sales and days on market that show buyers and sellers both waiting on rates before committing.

On why this market specifically — a few projects that actually broke ground or hired this year instead of just getting announced: a $712M, 1,572-job battery plant (6 GWh) an hour east, with the state putting $118M into widening the interstate that serves it; a $2B EV battery gigafactory two hours south that reaffirmed and is proceeding; a $76M data-center-cooling-systems plant that's the largest jobs project in its county in 18 years; and inside the metro, an $840M VA hospital (2027), a $1.9B+ multi-year appliance-plant expansion, and a roughly $2B factory retool for a new electric truck (2027 target).

Worth knowing too: not everything announced happens here. A roughly $6B data center project and a $164M federal manufacturing grant both fell through in the last year, and a marquee $554M downtown tower has been "approved and financed on paper" for a decade with zero construction. Check a project's actual permit/construction status before you underwrite around it.

Happy to answer questions if anyone's digging into this market.