I keep seeing, “Rates are still historically low,” and while that’s true, I think that statement leaves out a pretty important part of the conversation: home prices.

In 1981, mortgage rates were around 16.6%, but the median home price was roughly $66,400; today, rates are around 7%, but the median home price is roughly $429,000.

So comparing rates by themselves doesn’t tell us much about affordability—the payment relative to the price of the home and the buyer’s income is what really matters.

At the same time, I think there’s a legitimate argument on the other side: waiting for rates to fall isn't necessarily the winning strategy either.

If a $500,000 home today becomes a $600,000 home in a few years, getting that future 5.5% rate instead of today's 7% doesn't necessarily mean the buyer comes out ahead.

And that brings us to “date the rate, marry the house.”

I actually like the concept—but I think it has been oversold.

It shouldn't mean “buy now because rates are guaranteed to come down.”

It should mean “if you find the right house at a price and payment that work for you today, don't necessarily let the rate alone keep you from buying—because financing can potentially be changed later.”

The key word is potentially.

There’s no guarantee rates fall, just like there’s no guarantee home prices continue climbing.

And after hearing “rates will be lower next year” for the last few years, I think buyers deserve a little more nuance than that.

Buy the house because the numbers work today.

If rates improve later, that's an opportunity—not the reason the purchase had to work in the first place.

At the end of the day, rate + price + payment + income = affordability.

That’s a much bigger conversation than simply asking, “What’s the rate?”