The Biggest Crash Imaginable is Coming For Commercial Assets

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  • BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 5 votes
    3y

    What about office/ warehouse spaces? I'm an electrical contractor with an interest in CRE and see a great need for trade contractors needing space to expand for work and equipment storage.

    Originally posted by Mark Best.

    BiggerPockets
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  • BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 5 votes
    3y

    In Chicago, we see a lot of cool new office space being developed in the Fulton Market and West Loop areas.
    Developers are building some great new hybrid-friendly office projects in this Live-Work-Play area and companies want to put their headquarters there so that they can attract young tech professionals to their teams.
    This trend is spreading up and down the river with mega projects like Lincoln Yards and the '78.
    Unfortunately, people just don't want to be in the central business district in the loop. Concrete jungles of one huge office tower after another like this have become functionally obsolete.
    So you have two different markets. One vibrant and one floundering.
    Markets need to change with the times. The status quo in the office market was way over due and the pandemic quickly brought that into focus.

    Originally posted by Roger Luri.

    BiggerPockets
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  • Michael Casile
    Benson, NC · Member since 2019 · 133 posts · 3 votes
    3y

    Not sure why there is so much in the delivery pipeline. Obviously the plandemic impacted it a lot for the negative. Guessing they over-rated economic health and reduction in working from home post-covid.

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    • Chuck B.
      Investor · Louisville, KY · Member since 2011 · 296 posts · 248 votes
      3y

      “Plandemic” sounds like some Qanon conspiracy garbage.

      0Reply
  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3y

    A little bit click-baity on that title, Dave... ;)

    Podcast Guest on Show The Truth About Real Estate Investing in 2024 (What Investors NEED to Know)
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  • Ken P.
    Rental Property Investor · Northville, MI · Member since 2013 · 264 posts · 183 votes
    3y

    In my engineering role at a global manufacturer, 2 years in the birth of a recently launched new product were spent in the iterative design, prototype build, and test phase, during which being physically co-located with colleagues, with collaborative design space and access to test hardware, was very important. During the second half of the program, however, days were spent in online meetings with suppliers and production sites around the world, implementing the new product into production. Prior to the pandemic, we would race into the office for early morning virtual meetings with those foreign teams. During the pandemic, when we were forced to work from home, it became crystal clear that there was close to zero benefit from being in a US office when almost 100% of our meetings were with teams thousands of miles away. With this realization, our company has permanently reduced office capacity, as there is no scenario when it makes sense for all employees to be in the office all of the time. Multiply this across the economy, and the office market will never be what it was.

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  • Bryan HartlenPro Member
    Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 316 posts · 159 votes
    3y

    Dave, thanks for the analysis. I’d love to see the data and analysis behind your premise that “Vacancy and rents in multifamily are unlikely to get hit nearly as hard as office. ”

    0Reply
  • Jane Ahlert
    Member since 2023 · 1 post · 0 votes
    2y

    What are the innovative ideas for the office spaces/buildings? Empty buildings are depressing.

    0Reply
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