Mortgage rates started climbing in the fall six months prior to Fed raising the federal funds rate. Mortgage interest rates tend to be forward looking. The federal funds rate has zero to do with mortgage rates. The federal funds rate impact business and consumer non mortgage interest rates. There is some correlation in moving in the same direction. Correlation is not causation.
Commercial loan lenders are in trouble. Since these commercial loans are non recourse the borrower is more likely to default if interest rate continues to rise. Most commercial lenders are smaller banks that essentially lend to most small businesses that drive the economy. If these big no recourse investment defaults then these commercial lenders will take a hit and will not be able to lend money to their other borrowers which will effect the economy in more ways then we think.
