Hi all, Rob here, an agent in Louisville. Continuing my monthly Louisville numbers.

In September, fewer houses went under contract in Jefferson County than in December. December. The week of Christmas. The month "nobody buys a house."

530 single-family homes went pending in September. August was 852. That's a 38% drop in one month, and the lowest month in the past year of MLS data. December was 558. February was 691. September beat them both on the way down.

The reason is rates. The 10-year Treasury just hit its highest level since 2002. Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the average 30-year mortgage at 7.28% at the start of October. A year ago it was 6.34%.

At Louisville's median price of $285,000, putting 10% down:

A year ago (6.34%): about $1,594 a month

Now (7.28%): about $1,755 a month

At 3%, what a lot of sellers locked in back in 2021: about $1,081 a month

Same house, $161 more a month than last fall. And about $674 a month more than the person selling it to you is probably paying. That gap is the whole market right now.

Not every part of Louisville felt it the same. Every single-family home in Jefferson County by price: for sale, sold in the last 30 days vs. the same 30 days last year, and months of supply.

Under $200K: 624 for sale, 160 sold vs 206 (down 22%), 3.9 months

$200K-$300K: 736 for sale, 286 sold vs 342 (down 16%), 2.6 months

$300K-$400K: 491 for sale, 169 sold vs 152 (up 11%), 2.9 months

$400K-$600K: 306 for sale, 126 sold vs 151 (down 17%), 2.4 months

$600K and up: 299 for sale, 92 sold vs 81 (up 14%), 3.2 months

All of it: 2,456 for sale, 833 sold vs 932 (down 11%), 2.9 months

The cheapest homes in the county slowed down the most. That's the most buyer-friendly slice of Louisville right now. Meanwhile, homes over $600,000 sold more than they did a year ago. A lot of under-$200K buyers are first-time buyers putting down as little as possible, and every bump in the rate hits them right in the monthly payment. Investors live in that price range too, and the numbers are harder to make work at 7%. A lot of $600K-and-up buyers are moving up with equity or paying cash. Rates matter less when you're bringing a big check.

Two cities. One zip code away from each other.

The shoppers didn't disappear. In the last week of September, 518 new homes hit the Louisville market, more than the same week last year. Only 282 sold, down 23%. For the year, listings are up 13% and sales are up just 3%. The signatures did.

Where I'd look as an investor: under $200K is where tired sellers are piling up. I found 84 homes in that range that have been sitting more than 90 days and have already cut their price. That's not a list of bad houses. It's a list of people who are ready to talk. And there are 53 two-to-four unit buildings for sale in Jefferson County under $300,000 right now. Supply is way up from last year.

This isn't 2008. Almost nobody is being forced to sell, and the median price is still up from last year. It's a traffic jam, not a crash.

Curious what other metros are seeing. Are your pendings falling off like this, or is it a Louisville thing?