Market in a Minute

We’re in the middle of Q4 market and here's where things stand.

• Knox County home sales decreased -20.7% in Oct 2026 from Oct 2025.

• The median sale price was $402,588 — down .06% from the previous year. Year to date from the same time last year it's flat.

• New listing housing inventory is down -10.6% from Oct 2025 and up just 1.7% in a YTD trend vs same timeline of 2025.

• Half of the homes sold were under contract in 26 days or less, up from 19 days a year ago.

• 36.8% of homes sold for the asking price or above, with 16.4% selling for more than the asking price. 6.7% sold for at least $10,000 over asking and 2.2% sold for at least $25,000 over asking price.

• The sale-to-list price ratio sat at just over 95%, about same as last year same time, and flat in % change from Oct 2026 and a peak in March 2026 of 97%. 

• New construction dropped to only 10.7% of total home sales, down from 12% in 2025 and the lowest monthly percentage of total sales since 2022.

There will be two factors to watch for the remainder of 2026 and as we hit 2027: interest rates, and inventory.

Interest rates we'll continue to monitor as global conflicts and energy prices continue to add pressure while at the same time as a healthy job market and domestic GDP boost inflation.

To counter this effect, the Federal Reserve has already hiked the bank rate once and has said that they plan to do so again potentially before the end of the year. The most recent meeting opting to hold right where they are as they gather more data.

Inventory especially in the more affordable market segments continues to see a squeeze, potentially opening the door for investors to make aggressive offers. I know I'm taking swings every week and have 1 under contract set to close shortly.

While East Tennessee housing inventory is returning rapidly and has reached 8,000+ listings for the first time in nearly a decade, some types of homes were more depleted than others during the busy season.

A basic affordability estimate indicates that these buyers likely had household incomes of around $85,000 and up, well above the median income.

As of September 30, only 1,200 of these homes are actively listed in East Tennessee, around 14% of available inventory.

We're also seeing more opportunities pop up in the pre-forclosure space, a large

New homes generally do not fall into this category, due to the increased cost of land, process delays, materials and labor. The median cost of new homes sold remained above $400,000 all year, reaching a peak of $475k in June.

Despite a marked increase in building, this price tension could help explain why new home sales have continued falling as a percentage of total sales, dipping to 10.7% in August - the lowest percentage of new home sales in any month since 2022.

So while there may be more on the market, we still have significant gaps between what is being built or listed and what buyers can afford.