Does this market ranking match what you're seeing on the ground?

Question

I'm a developer in the Carolinas and have been working on a way to compare markets on fundamentals instead of headlines. I'd value this group's read.

I scored 37 Southeast and Texas metros on six things using public data (Census, BLS, FHFA), mostly through 2025:

• Population growth
• Job growth
• Net domestic migration
• Income growth
• Affordability: whether incomes are rising faster than home prices
• New supply: permits per 1,000 residents (more building counts against a market)

Population growth

Job growth

Net domestic migration

Income growth

Affordability: whether incomes are rising faster than home prices

New supply: permits per 1,000 residents (more building counts against a market)

Top of the list: Raleigh, Greenville SC, Charleston, Sarasota, then Austin and Wilmington NC tied at #5.

A couple that may surprise people: Nashville (#18) is held back by heavy building and cooling job growth, and Atlanta (#22) by slow job growth and almost no net migration.

For those of you investing in these areas:

- Does that ranking line up with what you're seeing?

- Which of these six would you weigh most heavily, and what's missing? (Rent growth? Insurance costs?)

- If a tool like this went further, would you get more value from a deeper report on specific markets, or a calculator for a specific property?

I turned this into a free tool I currently use and I'm looking for a handful of investors to test it. Not selling anything. If you'd like to try it, comment or message me and I'll send it over.

Noah Laker · Answer

I'd weigh new supply most, your Nashville example proves it. Heavy building can kill rent growth even when jobs look good, so permits per 1,000 is the reallity check I trust first. The missing piece for me is insurance costs, they can swing a deal more than rent growth in a lot of these markets. I'm a licensed broker in Sacramento, DRE #02085666. Hope this helps, DM me if you want a second set of eyes on a market.

Justin Weisenbacher · Answer

Developer in what SF? Multifamily? Those are very good markets (i’d add Richmond Virginia to that list ￼

Matt Murphy · Answer

Developer in residential. Primarily MFH. Richmond is an interesting market. There is some recent momentum on the MFH side with new projects getting financed. However, when compared to other markets, it lags in income and population. I suspect the deals getting done are leaning into the supply story and affordability. Richmond is also showing a strong job market. The ranking has its flaws! Trying to work out the kinks. Thanks for the feedback!

Matt Murphy · Answer

Thanks, this is really helpful. Supply is actually the lightest-weighted of the six right now (10%), so it's interesting that it's the first thing you'd check. I've been going back and forth on whether to bump it up, and your Nashville point is exactly the case for it.

Agree on insurance, especially for Florida and the Gulf Coast markets in this set. Do you have a source you trust for it at the market level? Most of what I've found is state-level, which is too broad to separate, say, Tampa from Sarasota.

Curious if others would weigh it the same way: supply first, or still jobs and migration?

Does this market ranking match what you're seeing on the ground?

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