Real Estate Consultant · Houston TX · Member since 2021 · 126 posts · 93 votes
Apparently, homebuilders are cutting jobs and buying less land, while the companies buying land and getting it ready for development are hiring.
Funny how that works.
Builders are slowing down, construction numbers are dropping, and new home approvals are at their lowest point since 2012. About half of builders are planning to buy less land.
Meanwhile, the people who specialize in finding land, getting approvals, and putting projects together are still busy.
Here's the irony: some of the builders cutting their land and development teams today may be the same ones paying a premium to buy approved land from those very people a few years from now.
It's a little like firing your mechanic because you aren't driving much, then wondering why it costs so much to get your car running again.
Land doesn't stop being valuable just because builders stop building. Sometimes the smartest move is knowing when not to pour concrete.
But I suppose that's easier to understand when your business isn't measured one quarter at a time
Housing starts are down in part because homes can’t sell for enough to justify the cost of building them.
A lot of money is being spent entitling land that homebuilders are unlikely to buy. I get sent shovel-ready deals all the time where the math wouldn’t work even if the land were free. When achievable home prices can’t cover development costs and leave a builder a reasonable profit, the land can become obsolete or find a different use for the site.
Meanwhile, I'm observing more and more people raising capital to entitle land on the assumption that selling it to a builder is the easy money in this market. Many are in for a rude awakening.
I was at a conference last friday on the market and their were some very large homebuilders (nationwide) at this event speaking and discussing the state of the market. Permitting and home building is down as mentioned because of increased costs from tariffs but another they mentioned was concrete due to data center construction. Also in places like Denver area entitlement costs have doubled over the past few years and mentioned its around $70k per lot now in fees. What many are doing is locking up land for entitlement and getting it on option contracts (smart thing to do) and anticipate it is going to be several years like this until salaries can catch up to the cost of housing, inflation settles etc. Many thought do not expect new starts to increase until 2029