3.75M annualized sales took place in Oct 2026, which is down 44% from the pandemic peak. Adjusted for the size of the housing stock, demand is in its biggest depression ever, (worse than post-2008).
The reason sales are so low is because homebuyers have no interest in paying record prices at 7.5% mortgage rates. Sellers need to get the memo: cut the price, or else your house will sit.
Michael, the 3.75 million number really puts the slowdown in perspective โ down 44% from the pandemic peak and the lowest since 2010 is a big move. What I'm seeing from the listing side lines up with your point: buyers are pushing back on record prices at 7.5% rates, and sellers who wait for yesterday's price end up sitting. The homes that are moving are the ones priced for today's market, in good condition, and easy to see. I'd add one thing to the picture: this kind of market is where good negotiation matters most โ buyers who come in with a clean, reasonable offer and sellers who price honestly can still get deals done. Are you seeing any signs of buyers coming back as rates tick down, or is the caution still the dominant mood?
I wouldn't say buyers are cautious. I think they've given up, accepted the fact they cannot afford to buy. A similar rental can likely be had for $1K/mo less. Why buy? Many share the thought that values will fall further, so waiting out another year makes sense. Meanwhile, sellers are living in a time warp that 2021-22 never left and their pricing reflects that. The result is a frozen market with no thaw in sight.