Vitals: 78230, 4/2 2,154', 1971 build, 11 years vacant, probate cleared.

ARV: $390k-$420k

BCAD $376k / Zillow $381k / Realtor CMA $398k

High-end comps: $192-$204/ft avg $426k

As a rule of thumb I'm using BCAD - 70% - repairs = MAO

Repair Buckets:
Light: $40k
Average: $70k ($30-35/ft)
Heavy: $150k

Vacancy Penalty Add-Ons (11 yrs idle):
Pool restoration (plaster, pump, pressure test): $15k-$25k
Mechanical / Plumbing idle failure (full HVAC, leaks on pressurization): $12k-$15k
1971 panel / aluminum wiring risk

My Math:
Conservative (roof/foundation sound): $85k repairs
Worst case (slow roof leak / pool shell): $105k

70% ARV: $263k
MAO = $263k - $85k = $178,305
MAO = $263k - $105k = $158,305

Plus: Roof >2015 = add $10k-$14k. Foundation = walk to confirm (clay in 78230).

Made 15 offers last 2 months, turned down 5 that didn't fit buy box. Trying to stay disciplined.

Questions:

1. Does $15k-$25k for pool on 11-yr vacant track in SA?

2. Do you auto-budget full HVAC + re-plumb after 10+ years idle?

3. Anything I'm missing on vacancy penalty?

Thanks in advance.