Investor · Radford, VA · Member since 2021 · 25 posts · 3 votes
Hi everybody,
Wanted to run some numbers by the group—would love your thoughts and expertise here. I've got three buy-and-holds in Virginia, Detroit, and Gary IN but this would be my first flip, so I'm being pretty careful about the analysis before moving forward.
The property
3bed/1bath, 1,030 sq ft, 1943 Gothic cottage in Pulaski VA (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-4th-St-SE-Pulaski-VA-2...). Listed at $50k. New listing as of this week. Kitchen will need to be gutted, bathroom needs everything, baseboard heating that'll need to get updated to newer HVAC. Newer metal roof is a bright spot, and I really like the general shape and design of the home.
My ARV
Landed at $180k conservative based on 6 comps in Pulaski. Fully remodeled 3/1s in the area are selling $185–210k. I'm using $175/sq ft applied to the 1,030 sq ft, which keeps me below the top of the market.
Rehab estimate
Medium scope comes in around $65k itemized—heat pump install, electrical panel upgrade, full kitchen and bath gut, hardwood refinishing, exterior repaint, masonry repair on the front steps, drywall/paint throughout.
If I offer $46k (70% LTV target): ~$39k projected profit
What I haven't been able to verify yet
Still need a walkthrough to check crawlspace/joist condition (heavy vine growth on the foundation is a red flag) and look at the chimney situation—there are ceiling water stains in some of the pics and not sure what's happening there.
What I'm working through on the financing side
Still figuring out the right lender for a first-timer in a smaller Virginia market—if anyone has dealt with hard money in SWVA or rural Virginia generally I'd love to hear what's worked.
Anyway—does the ARV hold up to you guys? Feel free to pick apart my math on this one! Thanks everyone!!
If your exit is 180k. You wanna be at 125k - 130k all in on cost. Even then, if you get in there and start seeing hidden problems, that 35k profit will get eaten up quick.
If your exit is 180k. You wanna be at 125k - 130k all in on cost. Even then, if you get in there and start seeing hidden problems, that 35k profit will get eaten up quick.
If your exit is 180k. You wanna be at 125k - 130k all in on cost. Even then, if you get in there and start seeing hidden problems, that 35k profit will get eaten up quick.
Thanks for the help Mike. Yeah, I was wondering if $65k would be enough. It's hard for me to nail down just how much things will cost as I'm still pretty new to the game. Also, the ARV could be slightly higher—$180k is on the lower end—but I was thinking worst-case scenario.
I would talk to some other agents or investors in the market just to get a gut check your numbers. We are seeing appraisals coming back a lot lower these days as well, so staying conservative is smart.
Wanted to run some numbers by the group—would love your thoughts and expertise here. I've got three buy-and-holds in Virginia, Detroit, and Gary IN but this would be my first flip, so I'm being pretty careful about the analysis before moving forward.
The property
3bed/1bath, 1,030 sq ft, 1943 Gothic cottage in Pulaski VA (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-4th-St-SE-Pulaski-VA-2...). Listed at $50k. New listing as of this week. Kitchen will need to be gutted, bathroom needs everything, baseboard heating that'll need to get updated to newer HVAC. Newer metal roof is a bright spot, and I really like the general shape and design of the home.
My ARV
Landed at $180k conservative based on 6 comps in Pulaski. Fully remodeled 3/1s in the area are selling $185–210k. I'm using $175/sq ft applied to the 1,030 sq ft, which keeps me below the top of the market.
Rehab estimate
Medium scope comes in around $65k itemized—heat pump install, electrical panel upgrade, full kitchen and bath gut, hardwood refinishing, exterior repaint, masonry repair on the front steps, drywall/paint throughout.
If I offer $46k (70% LTV target): ~$39k projected profit
What I haven't been able to verify yet
Still need a walkthrough to check crawlspace/joist condition (heavy vine growth on the foundation is a red flag) and look at the chimney situation—there are ceiling water stains in some of the pics and not sure what's happening there.
What I'm working through on the financing side
Still figuring out the right lender for a first-timer in a smaller Virginia market—if anyone has dealt with hard money in SWVA or rural Virginia generally I'd love to hear what's worked.
Anyway—does the ARV hold up to you guys? Feel free to pick apart my math on this one! Thanks everyone!!
Find a VERY competent agent to assist you with your ARV & SOW!
Plan on using them to list the property for sale or PAY them for their time & expertise.
Jon, I think your caution here is the right instinct, especially for a first flip.
The part I would be most careful with is the spread between your all-in cost and the ARV. If $180k is the safer exit number and you are already around $130k all in, there is not a huge amount of room for surprises. A kitchen, bath, HVAC, electrical panel, exterior work, masonry, and possible crawlspace or water issues can start stacking up quickly.
I would not rely on the $65k rehab number until you have a contractor walk it with you and price the scope against what buyers in Pulaski actually expect at that $180k–$200k range. The roof being newer helps, but ceiling stains, chimney questions, and foundation visibility would make me slow down.
I also agree with the advice to get a strong local agent involved. In my own market, the best numbers usually come from people who are close enough to the local resale market to know where buyers are drawing the line. I would also be careful about leaning too hard on the price-per-square-foot number. A small house can pencil out nicely at first, but buyers still respond to the street, the layout, the finish level, and what the other renovated homes actually offered.
On the financing side, I would ask the lender how they are treating ARV, contingency, and draw timing before assuming the margin is really there. If the local resale picture supports it and the inspection comes back cleaner than expected, it may still be worth pursuing. But I would want a tighter rehab bid and a little more margin before calling it a comfortable first flip.
@Hollie MacKellar This is all really helpful info--thanks so much for taking the time to share your thoughts! Gives me a lot to think about moving forward.
Wanted to run some numbers by the group—would love your thoughts and expertise here. I've got three buy-and-holds in Virginia, Detroit, and Gary IN but this would be my first flip, so I'm being pretty careful about the analysis before moving forward.
The property
3bed/1bath, 1,030 sq ft, 1943 Gothic cottage in Pulaski VA (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-4th-St-SE-Pulaski-VA-2...). Listed at $50k. New listing as of this week. Kitchen will need to be gutted, bathroom needs everything, baseboard heating that'll need to get updated to newer HVAC. Newer metal roof is a bright spot, and I really like the general shape and design of the home.
My ARV
Landed at $180k conservative based on 6 comps in Pulaski. Fully remodeled 3/1s in the area are selling $185–210k. I'm using $175/sq ft applied to the 1,030 sq ft, which keeps me below the top of the market.
Rehab estimate
Medium scope comes in around $65k itemized—heat pump install, electrical panel upgrade, full kitchen and bath gut, hardwood refinishing, exterior repaint, masonry repair on the front steps, drywall/paint throughout.
If I offer $46k (70% LTV target): ~$39k projected profit
What I haven't been able to verify yet
Still need a walkthrough to check crawlspace/joist condition (heavy vine growth on the foundation is a red flag) and look at the chimney situation—there are ceiling water stains in some of the pics and not sure what's happening there.
What I'm working through on the financing side
Still figuring out the right lender for a first-timer in a smaller Virginia market—if anyone has dealt with hard money in SWVA or rural Virginia generally I'd love to hear what's worked.
Anyway—does the ARV hold up to you guys? Feel free to pick apart my math on this one! Thanks everyone!!
Jon, thanks for laying this out so clearly – that level of detail makes it a lot easier for people to give you meaningful feedback.
On the numbers: your ARV feels reasonable based on what you shared. Using 175/sq ft when similar remodeled 3/1s are trading 185–210k gives you a bit of cushion instead of aiming at the very top of the range, which is smart for a first flip in that submarket. Your total project cost around 130k against a 180k ARV leaves room for profit, especially if your rehab budget is truly dialed in and you don't uncover major surprises in the crawlspace or chimney.
Where I’d stay conservative is exactly where you already are:
Make your offer contingent on a thorough inspection of the crawlspace, structure, and chimney so any hidden moisture or foundation issues don’t blow your budget.
Pressure-test your rehab number with at least one more contractor bid (or a line-item sanity check) so you’re not underestimating in a 1940s house where small issues can compound.
On the financing question, smaller markets and first-time flips can limit your options a bit, but there are still plenty of asset-based lenders and local banks that will look at a deal like this if your scope, timeline, and exit are clearly laid out. Sometimes pairing a local relationship (community bank or credit union that understands SWVA) with a strong contractor and a clean budget can be just as important as chasing the absolute cheapest rate.
Since you mentioned you already have buy-and-holds in Virginia, Detroit, and Gary, one other thing I’ll add from watching a lot of investors’ journeys: be cautious about chasing every “cheap” market just because the entry price looks good on paper. For example, I generally suggest people avoid jumping into Cleveland unless they are local or have a very tight team on the ground. It can be a tough market for out-of-area investors because of older housing stock, neighborhood-by-neighborhood variability, and management/rehab challenges that don’t always show up in a spreadsheet. The same principle applies anywhere: your team and local knowledge matter as much as the sticker price.
Each week I look at updated data on where capital is actually flowing and which markets are supporting solid buy-and-hold and flip outcomes (things like price trends, rent strength, inventory, and investor share). That kind of zoomed-out view tends to back up what you’re doing here: focusing on markets you know, where you can get reliable comps, realistic bids, and eyes on the property, instead of stretching into “hot” cities you don’t understand just because the online numbers look good.
From a pure deal-structure standpoint, your framework (ARV-based offer, explicit rehab scope, attention to risk items like the crawlspace) is solid. If the inspection comes back clean and your contractor verification supports that 65k budget, this looks like the kind of first flip that can both make money and give you a good template for the next one.
If you'd find it helpful, I'm happy to walk through how I'd stress-test your numbers (ARV range, contingency padding, and a couple of different exit scenarios) so you can decide whether to move forward or pass and wait for a cleaner deal.
What’s your biggest hesitation right now: the rehab risk on an older house like this, or the financing piece as a first-time flipper in a smaller market?
