Updated 1 day ago on . Most recent reply
Help evaluating a fix and flip deal
Hi everybody,
Wanted to run some numbers by the group—would love your thoughts and expertise here. I've got three buy-and-holds in Virginia, Detroit, and Gary IN but this would be my first flip, so I'm being pretty careful about the analysis before moving forward.
The property 3bed/1bath, 1,030 sq ft, 1943 Gothic cottage in Pulaski VA (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-4th-St-SE-Pulaski-VA-2...). Listed at $50k. New listing as of this week. Kitchen will need to be gutted, bathroom needs everything, baseboard heating that'll need to get updated to newer HVAC. Newer metal roof is a bright spot, and I really like the general shape and design of the home.
My ARV Landed at $180k conservative based on 6 comps in Pulaski. Fully remodeled 3/1s in the area are selling $185–210k. I'm using $175/sq ft applied to the 1,030 sq ft, which keeps me below the top of the market.
Rehab estimate Medium scope comes in around $65k itemized—heat pump install, electrical panel upgrade, full kitchen and bath gut, hardwood refinishing, exterior repaint, masonry repair on the front steps, drywall/paint throughout.
The math
- Purchase $50k + rehab $65k + closing/holding costs $15k = $130k total
- Projected profit at asking: ~$35k
- If I offer $46k (70% LTV target): ~$39k projected profit
What I haven't been able to verify yet Still need a walkthrough to check crawlspace/joist condition (heavy vine growth on the foundation is a red flag) and look at the chimney situation—there are ceiling water stains in some of the pics and not sure what's happening there.
What I'm working through on the financing side Still figuring out the right lender for a first-timer in a smaller Virginia market—if anyone has dealt with hard money in SWVA or rural Virginia generally I'd love to hear what's worked.
Anyway—does the ARV hold up to you guys? Feel free to pick apart my math on this one! Thanks everyone!!
Most Popular Reply
I do not think 65k is enough.
If your exit is 180k. You wanna be at 125k - 130k all in on cost. Even then, if you get in there and start seeing hidden problems, that 35k profit will get eaten up quick.