Louisville agent here, mostly investors. Our MLS has about 4,700 homes for sale right now. When I got licensed in 2013 it was somewhere around 1,800 to 2,200 on any given day. So the question I get most this fall is some version of: "That house has been sitting forever. How low can I go?"

I asked a bunch of local investors what they'd open at on a house that's been for sale seven months. The most common answer by far was 15% or more under asking. Then I pulled what actually happened.

Over the last 12 months, 112 single-family homes in Jefferson County sat on the market seven months or more and finally sold. Against their original asking price:

• The typical one closed about 8% under.

• Three out of four had already cut the price at least once before they sold.

• Only 15% ever got their original number.

• 27% sold for 15% or more under it.

Here's the catch. Against the price they'd already cut down to, most of them sold for about 98%. Only 6% went for 15% or more under that latest price.

So the big discount is real, but it mostly happens before you show up. The price cuts do the heavy lifting. Same house, different frame. Lowball the original number all day long, but if you open 15% under today's price, expect a counter.

How I'd use that this winter:

• Read the price history before you write anything. A house that started at $250,000 and is sitting at $219,000 has already given up most of its discount. Your offer is negotiating the last few percent, plus terms.

• Hunt the ones that haven't cut yet. A house that's sat seven months at its original price is where a 15%-under offer actually has room to land.

• Win on terms, not just the number. A tired seller wants certainty. Proof of funds up front (a recent bank statement or lender letter with the account numbers blacked out), a short inspection window, a fast close, as-is. That gets a real counter where a bigger number with a sale contingency gets ignored.

• Send a lot of one-page letters of intent. Here's what I'd pay and how I'd pay it. Yes, no, or let's talk. A no costs you nothing.

Timing matters too. Everybody's attention is somewhere else right now. Football four nights a week, basketball's back, the holidays are coming, and one economist estimates about 1.5 million Americans will skip work on the day the next Grand Theft Auto drops in November. Buyers are distracted. The sellers who stayed listed through the fall usually have a real reason to sell. That's exactly when I want offers in. Nobody rings a bell.

The honest downside: some houses sit because something's wrong with them. Condition, layout, a busy road, or a price nobody will ever pay. Seven months on the market isn't a deal by itself. Run three numbers before you fall for the discount: what it's worth fixed up, what it costs to fix, and what it rents for.

Two questions for the group. When you write an offer on a stale listing, do you anchor off the original list price or the current one? And in your market, what are the long-sitters actually closing at against their last price?