Columbus Q3 2026: vacancy, new supply, and what it means for 1-4 unit owners

Columbus Q3 2026: vacancy, new supply, and what it means for 1-4 unit owners

Realtor · Columbus, Franklin County · Member since 2026 · 40 posts · 8 votes

A quick read on where Columbus rentals stand heading into winter, from someone who self-manages here.

Swiss Realty Group's Q3 2026 Columbus multifamily analysis (disclosure: my brokerage) put overall multifamily vacancy at 10.1%, with stabilized properties at 7.7%, and effective rents roughly flat at -0.2%. Nationally, the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey shows rental vacancy at 7.6% for Q3 2026, up from 7.1% a year earlier. Sources: swissrealtyltd.com/columbus-multifamily-absorption-hits-a-five-year-high-as-overall-vacancy-eases-q3-2026-market-analysis/ and census.gov/housing/hvs/current/

The headline vacancy is inflated by lease-up of new apartment buildings, and more supply is in the pipeline, including several workforce and affordable projects around the metro. Those compete directly with older 2-3 bedroom single-family and duplex rentals.

What I'm doing on my own units:

Pricing to the condition of the unit, not last year's rent. A clean, updated unit still leases; a tired one sits.

Starting turns the day notice is given, and marketing before move-out where possible.

Underwriting new deals with longer vacancy assumptions and flat rent growth for the first year.

Focusing on renewals. Keeping a good tenant at a modest increase beats a month empty.

On the buy side, softer rent growth plus fewer purchase applications means some sellers are more negotiable, especially on properties needing work.

Owners in Midwest metros: are you seeing new apartment supply pull tenants away from your single-family and small multifamily units, or does the price gap still protect you?

BJ Everson | Realtor with Swiss Realty Group

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  • Ashish AcharyaBusiness Member
    CPA, CFP®, PFS · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2017 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9h

    BJ, I like the point about underwriting with longer vacancy and flatter rent growth. That's probably a much better way to look at today's deals than assuming the market will bail out the numbers.

    I'd add one layer to the underwriting: the after-tax return. Two properties can have similar cash flow but very different tax outcomes depending on the purchase price, improvements, depreciation, and how much cash the investor has tied up.

    Especially with older properties that need work, I'd want to separate the actual operating return from the tax benefits rather than letting depreciation make a marginal deal look better than it really is.

    The strongest deal is still the one that works conservatively before the tax benefits are added.

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