Columbus rents are flat month to month. I still underwrite like rent won't grow

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Columbus rents are flat month to month. I still underwrite like rent won't grow

BJ Everson
Realtor · Columbus, Franklin County · Member since 2026 · 112 posts · 31 votes

Zillow's October 2026 market report put the Columbus Observed Rent Index at $1,523, flat on the month and up 2.7% year over year. Columbus home values sat around $326,915 (+1.0% YoY), and Zillow's sales nowcast for the metro was down 12.3% YoY with inventory up 7.1% YoY. Nationwide, 40.4% of rental listings offered a concession in October. Source: zillow.com/research/october-2026-market-report

On value-add 1-4 unit holds here, flat rent is not a crisis if you bought the deal right. It is a warning if you underwrote 4-5% annual rent growth to make DSCR work. Here is the habit I use when metro rents look soft:

1. Underwrite year-one rent at leased comps or current leased rents, not asking rents and not a hopeful bump after rehab.

2. Stress vacancy and concessions the way the market is actually behaving, not a perfect 3% vacancy line.

3. Keep cash-flow math honest with taxes at purchase price, a real insurance quote, and a full management fee even if I plan to self-manage.

4. Treat any rent growth as upside after the deal already works at flat rents.

A buyer's market on the sales side can help you negotiate purchase price. It does not automatically fix thin rent assumptions.

How are you underwriting rent growth on your next hold: a flat year-one case, or still baking in annual bumps to make the spreadsheet work?

BJ Everson | Columbus investor and Realtor with Swiss Realty Group

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  • Nicholas Cokas
    Member since 2021 · 86 posts · 79 votes
    12h

    Hey BJ — your numbers match Zillow's October table, and one detail in that table changes how I'd read "flat." National rent was flat month over month too ($1,913, 0% from September). October is a soft leasing month everywhere, so the flat MoM in Columbus isn't a local signal. The 2.7% year over year is the trend.

    The bigger issue sits under that 2.7%. September CPI was 3.7%, so Columbus rent is losing a full point a year in real terms. Cincinnati (+3.0%) and Cleveland (+4.2%) are both beating it.

    That's why flat rent alone isn't fully conservative. If you hold rent flat but also hold expenses flat, the spreadsheet still flatters you. Take a hypothetical duplex at the metro rent index:

    • Gross: 2 × $1,523 × 12 = $36,552

    • Expenses at 45%: $16,448, so NOI is $20,104

    • Year 3, rent flat, expenses up 3.7% a year: expenses about $17,688, NOI about $18,864

    That's a 6.2% NOI drop with no change in vacancy. A deal with 1.20 coverage at purchase is around 1.13 by year three on the same debt. Not fatal. But it's thin.

    So I'd add one line to your step 4: flat rent, expenses growing at least at inflation, and the deal still clears your lender's DSCR in year three. Insurance and Franklin County tax bills are usually where it breaks, which is why your real-quote rule matters more than the rent line.

    With inventory up 7.1% and sales down 12.3%, sellers have room to move. That's where you buy the cushion back.

    On your own holds, which line moved more at the last renewal — insurance or the Franklin County bill?

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