This morning the 30-year fixed was sitting around 6.86%. That's the first time we've been under 7% in about seven weeks.

A few weeks ago it was closer to 7.5%. Freddie Mac's weekly survey (the big national average everybody quotes) has dropped three weeks straight: 7.32%, then 7.24%, then 7.18% last Thursday. The daily numbers moved faster than the weekly one, and now they've broken the line.

For perspective, on a $300,000 loan the principal and interest payment at 7.5% is about $2,098 a month. At 6.86% it's about $1,968. That's roughly $130 a month, or about $1,550 a year, just from waiting a few weeks.

Here's why I think the next 30 to 60 days are interesting, especially here in Louisville.

The buyers are still asleep

• Mortgage purchase applications (people actually applying for a loan to buy) are down about 60% from the pandemic peak, per Redfin. That's back near 1995 levels.

• About 14% of September deals nationally fell apart before closing.

• Homebuilders are nervous. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index just hit 29, the lowest since 2012. A record 43% of builders are cutting prices and about 65% are offering incentives like paying closing costs or buying down your rate.

The sellers haven't repriced for it

I pulled Jefferson County last week:

• 1,128 active homes where the seller's most recent move was a price cut.

• 66 homes that came back on the market in the last 30 days. A deal already fell through on every one of those. A seller who packed boxes once reads the next offer differently.

• 82 homes under $250,000 that have sat 120+ days and already cut the price.

So you've got sellers who priced and negotiated in a 7.5% world, and buyers who now have a little more payment room. That gap doesn't stay open forever. When rates drop, buyers come back in waves, and the first wave usually gets the best terms.

What I'm telling people this week

1. Get your pre-approval updated now, at today's rate, so you know your real number.

2. Look at the stale and back-on-market listings first. Those sellers are the most likely to give you closing costs or a rate buydown on top of price.

3. Don't count on rates dropping more. They might. But a year ago the 30-year was around 6.2% and it still went the wrong way for most of 2026. Buy the deal that works at today's rate. If rates fall, refinancing is the bonus, not the plan.

Curious what everybody else is seeing in their markets. Are buyers actually showing back up since rates dipped, or is it still quiet where you are? And for the lenders on here, are you seeing locks pick up this week?