I like to stress test before jumping in, play devils advocate so I can cover every angle

You want experienced experts that can guide you through the process, not someone who adds additional stress to the whole process.Lastly, happy to answer any questions.

In my underwriting, I am not depicting any benefit from a rate decrease any time soon.as for waiting, I gave been forecasting flattish appreciation.  

What was sold to us as a solid investment became a stressful, costly nightmare, and we sold both homes just two years later.Based on our experience, we strongly caution anyone to do very careful due diligence before trusting the claims made by Black Belt Investors.

We could absorb huge revenue decreases on the STRs.By 2012, we started purchasing at a discount.  

Quote from @William Thompson: The First Thing STR Hosts Should Review in the First Week of the Year (It’s Not Bookings)The first work week of the year always brings the same instinct for STR hosts:check calendars, tweak pricing, and see how January bookings look.That’s fine — but the hosts who actually improve year over year start somewhere else.They review how the business ran, not just how it booked.Before looking at occupancy, I always suggest taking one hour to answer a few simple questions:Which stays caused the most stress last year?

I found it helpful to look at markets across multiple tradeoffs instead of treating any single metric as decisive.As a simple illustration, consider two geographically close Midwest markets — Cincinnati and Columbus — not to declare a winner, but to show how different lenses highlight different strengths.Common heuristics investors tend to reference:Cincinnati: lower median home price, lower typical rent, often meets the 1% rule, moderate historical appreciation.Columbus: higher median home price, higher typical rent, rarely meets the 1% rule, stronger historical appreciation.These signals are useful for understanding entry price and basic cash-flow potential.Signals that surface broader tradeoffs:Cincinnati: higher rent-to-income pressure, more concentrated employment base, slower liquidity (days on market and inventory), lower structural friction.Columbus: more resilient rent-to-income, more diversified employment base, faster liquidity, moderate structural friction.This second view doesn’t predict outcomes or replace deal analysis — it helps explain why similar-looking markets behave differently under stress, growth, or different strategies.All of this is relative, not absolute, and weighting depends entirely on goals (cash flow, appreciation, balance, risk tolerance).

Several people have already mentioned some of the reasons:Successfully hitting a target in a high stress situation is very low probability.

Guest behavior often tells a different story.Comfort Directly Impacts ReviewsComfort influences:- Sleep quality- Daily usability- Stress levelsThese elements appear repeatedly in positive reviews and repeat bookings.Research from the broader hospitality industry consistently shows that negative guest feedback is most often tied to comfort failures: poor sleep, cleanliness issues, excessive noise, or temperature problems rather than the absence of luxury amenities.

Stress level: Olympic.The 2.5-Year GrindWhat should’ve been a quick stabilization turned into a 30-month, “is this thing ever going to end?”