Out here in California (Bay Area), we have mild winters and summers and have experienced explosive economic and demographic growth such that predicting capex reserves is less significant than it is in the alternating snowy and humid Midwest. 

This has led to:* 37% of homes in the United States have no mortgage at all* Of the remaining 63%, 1 in 4 has more than 50% of capitalSo, even if prices go down (and most experts don't predict they will), most homeowners will still have large amounts of value in their homes and won't stray away from that money.

Eventually, a bubble will burst because of ever increasing prices and those investors who can't predict when to sell will lose their money. 

Only time will tell about my prediction on the market adjustment but in general this time of year things do slow up. 

No one can predict where the economy will be in 5 or 7 or 10 years so no one can predict how aggressive or conservative banks will be when that note comes due. 

It also takes risk into account because it predicts you'll make more on the higher value properties, where price swings, rehab overages, and appraisal discrepancies can be greater.

I develop predictable systems that work.

In recent years, we've often heard predictions about a housing market crash.

But when we go ten years without a major hurricane event despite all the predictions that they would get worse . . . meh.Climate fluctuates by the minute, hour, day, week, month, season, year, decade, and century.  

After about a year, I had stashed up enough cash in the bank, and built a big enough business that I started to want to live on a predictable income again.