Select a State · Member since 2010 · 26 posts · 7 votes
Hello,
Have Phoenix and Las Vegas prices for SFR fallen over the last three months and what do you think will happen with prices over the next three to six months? I'm interested in a three bedroom home in that sells for about 150 thousand.
Phoenix has actually had some dropping going on in the last month or two. There was an article on azcentral.com but I can't find it now. It wasn't too drastic, but there was a significant drop from 30 and 60 days ago.
Personally, living in Phoenix and being a long time native I of course would love to see the upswing sooner than Vegas which is very possible. Either way, I won't be buying anymore rentals until at least spring of next year here in the valley. All my short flips are going to retail buyers.
Many of the projections from national sources show a further drop over next 12 -24 months. I don't do business in either, but there are members on BP that do. Maybe they'll reply. Rich
I bought my first Phoenix area rental this year, it is my first investment in Arizona. I think the Phoenix area will come back sooner than the Vegas area, Phoenix has a much more diverse economy. Prices will still drop in both areas but I think Phoenix will not drop as much, maybe 5-10 percent more by 2012 whereas I see Vegas dropping another 15-20 percent by 2012.
Phoenix has actually had some dropping going on in the last month or two. There was an article on azcentral.com but I can't find it now. It wasn't too drastic, but there was a significant drop from 30 and 60 days ago.
Personally, living in Phoenix and being a long time native I of course would love to see the upswing sooner than Vegas which is very possible. Either way, I won't be buying anymore rentals until at least spring of next year here in the valley. All my short flips are going to retail buyers.
Vegas prices (at least for the mid-to-low end homes) stablized last summer .... article below points that out. And like most everywhere else, folks concerned about departure of the tax credit and Vegas continues to lead the nation in foreclosures.
On the low end of the Vegas market prices have stabilized or ticked up slightly. The issue is lack of available inventory. A lot of homes listed on the MLS are not available due to pending short sales or are otherwise under contract. REOs on the low end wind up in bidding wars. Banks accept offers for a short time then go back to the highest ones and ask for highest & best. The banks have wised up here.
This is not a prediction of the future - just where we are at now.
Most experts think we still have some downward pressure on values and offer various range estimates, but averaging around 5%. Phoenix has a more diverse economy and I think will turn around earlier than Vegas.
If everyone thinks prices are going down some more, it is a good time to make really low offers with a glimmer of hope that they will be accepted.
I don't think it matters if prices go down another 10-15% if you are buy-and-hold. If you hold long enough, prices will go back up, above (probably much above) what you paid.
My suggestion is that you do not pick a place to live based on bargain prices. Look carefully and pick the place where you want to live.
After you settle on a town, then you go out bargain hunting.
I never pay full retail price, but if a house has everything I want for my own residence, it doesn't have to be as huge a bargain as it does when I am buying investments.
I consider my residence to be an investment, and it will have to make money for me, but I also want to be comfortable while I live there.
Around here, the really screaming deals have some sort of issue that makes them less desirable residences. There have been very few foreclosures that I would want to live in myself, and those do not go for cheap, even as foreclosures. However, they have certainly gone down compared to their price at the top of the market.
Personally, they are holding a ton of inventory back (Confirmed by people on here / brokers in LV). Thats keeping the low end housing stable and increasing a bit.
Bottom line is LV is not a flip market. Don't even bother. If you want strictly cash-flow, i can help you all day.
Investor to investor CASH deals on properties are the only way to "Flip" in LV. That, or have an awesome buyers list and can carry the financing.
Your appraisals are going to come back lower than what you are "In" for, in LV.