Posts tagged as:

housing

Commercial Real Estate

Apartment Vacancy Rate Hits Its Highest Point In Nearly 25 Years

by Christina Inman | November 2, 2009

In what is an interesting phenomenon, apartment vacancies have hit their highest point since 1986 in cities across the country. 
According to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets, the vacancy rate reached 7.8% this summer, which is normally a strong period for rentals. [...]

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Economy

New Home Sales fall 3.6% for September, First Decline Since March

by Joshua Dorkin | October 28, 2009

The White House keeps telling us that we’re in a recovery, yet anyone watching the economy, housing, foreclosures, unemployment, the stock market, commercial real estate, and dozens of other factors will tell you that they have some rose colored glasses glued on. Of course, if they didn’t, what they would tell us is that [...]

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Real Estate Market

Is The Housing Market Overheating . . . Again?

by Peter Giardini | October 27, 2009

It seems that in these past two weeks, we have experienced a tremendous increase in relatively negative news regarding the real estate market.  Usually I just chalk up all this negativity to the media working hard to score a few extra bucks.  However, this time I am choosing to not be so hard on the [...]

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Commentary

A Quiz You Can’t Fail: How Will You Make Money in Real Estate

by Tom Koziol | October 23, 2009

As everyone knows, the real estate market is in the tank – at least that is the overall perception. On the other hand, we all have heard that there are people who are still making money in real estate. At least they say they are.

If it is true that people are making money, here is a quiz that should be a no brainer. By the way, this quiz won’t be graded. Not by me at least. You may decide to give yourself a grade just for grins.

The Setting

Lets say you live in a housing market that has been described by a national real estate forecast service as the country’s “weakest housing market.” It is projected to have the biggest decline in value in the next 12 months among all housing markets in the nation with a 12 percent median price dip for both new and existing single-family homes.

In making its determination, the forecast service looked at 260 metro areas using more than 50 variables, including housing supply, population trends, unemployment and inflation. And, speaking of unemployment, your area has just seen a full one percent spike upward.

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Real Estate Marketing

Targeting Property Listings without Violating the Fair Housing Act

by Molly Castelazo | October 16, 2009

Equal Housing Opportunity LogoYou’re sitting down to write a property listing.  You know my first rule of marketing: Make it personal.  But how do you do that – and stay within Fair Housing guidelines?

The Fair Housing Act, explained

The purpose of the Fair Housing Act is to ensure that a person can buy or rent a house or apartment wherever they want regardless of their race, ethnicity, gender, religious preference, disability, family status or national origin. In some areas, discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation is also prohibited.

Unfortunately the Fair Housing Act doesn’t actually list the words you are and are not allowed to use in your marketing communications. The language you can and cannot use while remaining faithful to the spirit of the Act is up for interpretation.

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Commentary

First Time Home Owner Tax Credit Likely To Stay; But Current Homeowners Still Face Uncertain Future

by Charles Feldman | October 7, 2009

As the, so far, jobless recovery continues, the White House is reportedly hunkered down trying to figure out what to do next. Obama administration officials are taking note of programs that have worked and those that have not done as well.

Among the programs that apparently fall into the “success” column is the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers.

The tax credit for first timers was part of the $787 billion dollar stimulus program and is being credited with helping the real estate industry stage a modest comeback—at least among first time home buyers.

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Economy

Where is the real estate market going?

by Ryan Moeller | October 6, 2009

Has the real estate market bottomed? No, nope, not a chance. We are through 1 of 3 storms and have a crippled economy and really high unemployment. The good news is that we are through the worst. With terrible times come tremendous opportunities. After the last up cycle where everything went way higher then it should have, this had to happen. It is inevitable. If you are like me, you see the next 3-5 years as the opportunity of a lifetime. Here is why.

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Housing

Short Sale Relief: Fact or Fiction?

by Peter Giardini | October 6, 2009

A couple of weeks ago I posted an article that included a chart that showed that there are still a boat load (over a million) Adjustable Rate Mortgages that will reset between now and 2011. You can re-read that article here.

Many experts believe the Fed Rate will hold steady through most of 2010 and therefore, the number of mortgage resets may not see huge jumps. Many of these mortgages are tied to properties that are upside down, meaning the property value is less than the mortgage, and that will be the primary reason for increased defaults — or it will at least make these properties prime candidates for short sales.

Real estate investors can attest to how hard it has been to get lenders to let go of their inventory, and if you specialize in short sales, you know that at times, waiting for a short sale response from a lender is a lot like watching grass grow.

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Real Estate News

The Flood Gates Have To Open Soon…

by Peter Giardini | September 29, 2009

For many real estate investors, these past several months have brought a welcome sigh of relief as homeowners have come into the market in truly satisfying numbers. In many parts of the country the steady downward slide in prices has tapered off and we have been seeing what may be the bottom in terms of further price declines… or NOT!

Are Some Hyping Up the Real Estate Market Too Soon?

The numbers throughout the Summer have been promoted with great fanfare… the Schiller-Case Index and National Board of Realtors proclaiming that prices may have bottomed out and the worst is over. Great news if you can believe it!

While I am delighted that prices have stabilized and even increased in some markets and that home sales over these past several months have been solid and even matching sales volumes from 2005…I have been troubled and what I haven’t been able to put my finger on is this…

With all of the homes going into foreclosure, when will this inventory start to pull this “current” housing recovery down? This Bloomberg article is not good news… and suggests that we have a long way to go before all of the current and projected foreclosed inventory can be absorbed.

So the million dollar question is this… How long can lenders continue to hold their REO inventory?

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Commentary

The New Real Estate Niche

by Tom Koziol | September 25, 2009
Real Estate
Image by Thomas Hawk via Flickr

After you read this post you will realize the “new” is really the “old” but, in the end, who cares. At least according to me.

We’ve all seen headlines that read: Existing home sales dip in August or words to that effect. Truth is, those headlines aren’t news anymore. They used to be but used to be has become the norm or maybe I should say the numb.

To add more numb to this post, we all have read articles telling us real estate practitioners and investors are expressing frustration with what they consider slow action from banks. That is, banks aren’t releasing inventory fast to satisfy the demand.

My question boils down to what do they really expect from institutions that have moved, on a historical basis, extremely slow. It is merely business as usual.

On the other hand, given a red-hot market has poked its head out of the ground we should expect business not to be usual. We should demand those institutions with a home inventory to get off their duffs and start moving the product. A home is no different than any other retail product, other than the sales price. When demand flares up, release the inventory and satisfy the demand.

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Economy

How’s the Economy? Check Your Underwear

by Richard Warren | September 21, 2009

underweareconomyThere are a multitude of economic indicators to use as a barometer of the economy. Many are extremely complex, while others are fairly simple. One of the more unusual ones actually seems to make a lot of sense. Look at your underwear drawer!

I was recently reading an article in the Washington Post (article) and assumed that it must have been a slow news day. The reporter was talking about how consumer confidence can be gauged by the underwear you keep. It seems that there is even a Men’s Underwear Index (MUI), and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sees it as a credible means of tracking consumer sentiment.

Replenishment Item

The theory behind the index is that men will replace their underwear as it wears out. However, when times are tough they will wait longer than usual before purchasing a replacement. So when money is tight the sales of boxers and briefs are in the toilet. When people feel better about the economy again you will see the sales rise.

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Commentary

The Perfect Storm Continues for Real Estate and the Economy

by Peter Giardini | September 15, 2009

I am sure you recall the movie some time back entitled The Perfect Storm?  It was a great movie, about the interaction of several storms meeting up to create one giant storm.  For an old Navy guy and licensed Coast Guard captain… it scared the hell out of me!

perfect storm housing, real estate, economy

Throughout the past several years we have been experiencing this same situation – first with the housing market, and then starting at this time last year, with our financial markets: The perfect storm of over priced homes, rampant speculation, poor lending practices, and I am sure more then a little fraud.  Every one of the previously mentioned occurrences contributed to a complete crash and the current recession we are still in.

In a previous article written for BiggerPockets, I shared a graph that showed how Option ARMs are the next part of the storm to materialize.  You can revisit that chart by heading over to this link

In spite of the recent good news regarding sales (increasing in most areas) and prices (declining at a slower rate, again in most areas) we are about to experience the second wave… kind of like we are in the eye of the storm… and the backside is barreling down on us.

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Commentary

A “New World Order” May NOT Be Good For Real Estate Industry

by Charles Feldman | September 9, 2009

real estate bailout mortgageAn article out of the McClatchy Newspapers group caught my eye today…in particular some numbers that may not bode well for a robust real estate industry recovery any time soon.

Bailout and Regulation Nation

The article, about how a new financial world order has emerged out of the wreckage of the sub-prime mortgage fueled disaster that exploded one year ago this week, explains why it may take many years to climb back even half way up that economic ladder most of us fell down from last September.

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Commentary

Home Prices “Turn Corner;” While Light At End Of Real Estate Tunnel Blinds Us!

by Charles Feldman | September 4, 2009

What’s that ahead? Is it….a corner? Is it…..THE corner? Are we about to turn it?
God, I hate cliches. But such is the case with a freshly minted Reuters dispatch headlined : “U.S. home prices turning the corner, up in 2010.”

I’m not sure if this differs from earlier reports that we were seeing the light at the end of the tunnel?

Actually, I sort of wonder whether the corner we are about to turn is right before we enter the tunnel, at whose end there is said to now be a light, or directly after we leave the tunnel, in which case ,wouldn’t that light at the end of it make it damn hard to see the freaking corner we are supposed to be turning?

Ok…this might be an academic question…but someone needed to raise it and it might as well be me.

Now, back to that corner we are turning.

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Commentary

Building Value vs. the Bubble Mentality

by Brendan O'Brien | August 25, 2009
United States housing bubble
Image via Wikipedia

One of my favorite economics bloggers, Megan McArdle, wrote a post recently on the Washington, DC real estate market, extended to the state of the market overall. It appears to her that the single-family residential market has bottomed out, while multifamily still has a way to go.

Megan also posed the question of when, and if, a boom will begin again. Possibly, in her view, there won’t be a boom. After all, the last nationwide (really, worldwide) boom was driven by a couple of unusual factors: historically low interest rates, and a big, competitive market for subprime loans.

Megan is one of the smartest economic bloggers, and a lot of what she wrote here makes sense. Still, the post bugged me, because it focused on macro-economics, which is not the world in which most of us live.

We know that real estate investing success comes from a million factors, only one of which is the boom-bubble-bust cycle. Outsiders don’t see a lot of difference between real estate investing and stock market investing, but there is a huge difference. In stock market investing, there are really only three factors:

  1. You decide which stock or mutual fund to buy
  2. You decided when to buy it (what price)
  3. You decided when to sell it (what price).

All those apply, in a sense, to real estate investing. You have to decide what and where to buy, pick one or more properties at what seems to be an appropriate price, and figure out when to offer them for sale, at what price. But there are also these factors:

Price Factors Exclusive to Real Estate

  1. What can you do to cut ongoing costs?
  2. How are you going to treat the tenants?
  3. How can you renovate the property to make it worth more?
  4. What can you add to the property to increase the income it generates?

You can probably think of a few more. The point is that in between the buying and the selling, most stock market investing is essentially passive. Once you own it, you’re waiting for the right time to sell it. You really have no say over how the company is run.

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